2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

[cycloneye]

The CanSIPS climate model for May is up and is a hyperactive look. Here are August and September.

[kevin]

May CanSIPS is similar and slightly more extreme in terms of precipitation anomalies than last month's run. SSTs in the MDR are even higher and the subtropics are a little bit cooler (read = less warm, but still extreme) than in last month's run. The MDR even has a region with a +1.8 degree temperature anomaly and on average based on a visual look the MDR looks to be around +1.2 degrees which would result in similar or slightly higher SST anomalies than 2023.

JAS



ASO



SON

[Deshaunrob17]

May CanSIPS is similar and slightly more extreme in terms of precipitation anomalies than last month's run. SSTs in the MDR are even higher and the subtropics are a little bit cooler (read = less warm, but still extreme) than in last month's run. The MDR even has a region with a +1.8 degree temperature anomaly and on average based on a visual look the MDR looks to be around +1.2 degrees which would result in similar or slightly higher SST anomalies than 2023.

Notice the dry signal in the EPAC- that alone tells me the Atlantic takes over

JAS

https://i.imgur.com/tyqHUns.png

ASO

https://i.imgur.com/We0C66b.png

SON

https://i.imgur.com/fc8gTSM.png

[DorkyMcDorkface]

May CanSIPS is similar and slightly more extreme in terms of precipitation anomalies than last month's run. SSTs in the MDR are even higher and the subtropics are a little bit cooler (read = less warm, but still extreme) than in last month's run. The MDR even has a region with a +1.8 degree temperature anomaly and on average based on a visual look the MDR looks to be around +1.2 degrees which would result in similar or slightly higher SST anomalies than 2023.

JAS

https://i.imgur.com/tyqHUns.png

ASO

https://i.imgur.com/We0C66b.png

SON

https://i.imgur.com/fc8gTSM.png

Could probably frame this run in a museum. It'll be hard to top this look.

[SFLcane]

When phil tweeting the Cansips you know this season means business.

 https://x.com/philklotzbach/status/1785654918889472385

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1785667848628564070

[DorkyMcDorkface]

 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1785450258060775845

[cycloneye]

Begin to prepare early.

 https://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/1785743108136739236

[Teban54]

 https://twitter.com/catinsight/status/1785683324939248038

[cycloneye]

Dr Levi's take. Hope he does video about the season.

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1785796314942583162

[cycloneye]

Rob of Crown Weather Services.

 https://twitter.com/crownweather/status/1785825563929616893

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1786000785450663953

[blp]

Cansips Trends on MSLP for Sept.

[Pas_Bon]

Since December 2023, there is not one single forecasted metric/determinant that points to anything other than a hyper-active tropical season for the Atlantic. It is worrisome, indeed.
I live in Galveston County, TX. Effects from Harvey aside, the last substantial, direct hit here was in 2008. I can only pray that streak continues.....

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/OSUWXGUY/status/1786112887234125858

[Deshaunrob17]

The CanSIPS climate model for May is up and is a hyperactive look. Here are August and September.

https://i.imgur.com/GyLz3yQ.jpeg

https://i.imgur.com/Jd5IfXa.jpeg

The Guianas being dry during a La Niña year usually means numerous tropical cyclones are passing to the north. Can't get more textbook that this.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1786193759836819494

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1786185487146795315

[Patrick99]

This looks like a pattern that hasn't been seen in quite some time save for a smattering of years.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

What I find interesting about the possible steering pattern is no Western Heat Doom-Death Ridge yet and nothing on the models. In the last five years by early May, the Western Death Ridge was already becoming established in the SW. Due to the lack of a mean Western Heat Doom-Death Ridge, the downstream pattern across North America is much more progressive this spring and will likely remain that way for the foreseeable future.