2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1786531319423639912

[DorkyMcDorkface]

https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1786531319423639912

Evident on the EPS as well. We'll see how this evolves over the next few weeks. Definitely more intrigued by this period than the one mid-month.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/crownweather/status/1787229865579569641

[skyline385]

Well there is a disturbance now, slightly earlier than EPS so guessing MJO is moving faster on GFS. Also obligatory max range disclaimer, take it with a grain of salt.

[StPeteMike]

This will likely develop into an EPAC storm the closer we get to that time range. Time to start the season of phantom storms in the Caribbean! haha

[skyline385]

This will likely develop into an EPAC storm the closer we get to that time range. Time to start the season of phantom storms in the Caribbean! haha

Yea, exactly what I was thinking lol. Although I am giving the GFS a slight benefit of the doubt for end of May simply because its on the EPS too.

[StPeteMike]

Obviously very far out and has zero confidence, but GFS is trying to cut off a low from a front around the 20th in the GoM. I believe the European has also been showing some hints of a weak low forming in the Gulf around this time. If anything forms, will likely be short lived and weak to match climatology for this time of year.

[cainjamin]

First run of the GFS showing a bonafide storm forming in the Western Caribbean. Who wants to guess how many more until it shows a major hurricane in May?

All joking aside, the last week of May and first week of June does look favourable for development in the Western Caribbean. Shear will likely keep it in check as it moves north should anything form however.

[StPeteMike]

https://i.ibb.co/XSsbH9T/gfs-mslp-pcpn-watl-58.png

First run of the GFS showing a bonafide storm forming in the Western Caribbean. Who wants to guess how many more until it shows a major hurricane in May?

All joking aside, the last week of May and first week of June does look favourable for development in the Western Caribbean. Shear will likely keep it in check as it moves north should anything form however.

Bears watching but won’t be surprise if this is pans out to be GFS doing early season GFS shenanigans.

Also interested in the GFS showing the western edge of the ITCZ in the Atlantic inching further north. If that does occur, we may see a busy June for the Caribbean.

[Teban54]

we may see a busy June for the Caribbean.

I know it's just one person's opinion, but the fact that this can be said at all speaks volumes.

What's even more surreal is that it isn't even the craziest thing in the world given this year's indicators.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1788573135513530433

[StPeteMike]

we may see a busy June for the Caribbean.

I know it's just one person's opinion, but the fact that this can be said at all speaks volumes.

What's even more surreal is that it isn't even the craziest thing in the world given this year's indicators.

I won’t put too much on my comment, far from the experts and Mets we have here, but the forecasts, moderate La Niña by peak season (neutral during June?), warmer than climatology average water temps, and weaker trade winds across the Caribbean does support my (unprofessional) forecast. Eastern Caribbean may be a little hostile still until we get into July, but western side looks to have a good setup to allow more than 1 storm form there before the end of June.

[StormPyrate]

storms in this area give me heart burn, anything that can curve into the Tampa coast does.
That shield is going to fail us eventually, and we have dodged a couple bullets here the past few years

[Stratton23]

StormPyrate same here in SE texas, we barely dodged laura and delta , its just a matter of time before that luck goes ka poof, someone is going to get absolutely rocked on the gulf coast this season, we will just have to see where that happens

[StPeteMike]

storms in this area give me heart burn, anything that can curve into the Tampa coast does.
That shield is going to fail us eventually, and we have dodged a couple bullets here the past few years

Yep, I’m at the point where I feel like every year is going to be “well hope this one dodges us”. Seasons like this make me even more nervous, with the odds of a direct increasing with the number of storms forecasted and models showing the area around Florida on both sides being very saturated.

[skyline385]

GFS GFS'ing

Jokes aside, still a sign that we are slowly getting into favorable conditions as models start showing hints of future development.

[Category5Kaiju]

GFS GFS'ing

Jokes aside, still a sign that we are slowly getting into favorable conditions as models start showing hints of future development.

[url]https://i.ibb.co/7zwyk1z/gfs-mslp-pcpn-atl-64.png [/url]

Hey, you know, if there was ever a year where that kind of monstrous May phantom hurricane were to ever actually verify, it'd probably be this year of all years

[ChrisH-UK]

GFS GFS'ing

Jokes aside, still a sign that we are slowly getting into favorable conditions as models start showing hints of future development.

[url]https://i.ibb.co/7zwyk1z/gfs-mslp-pcpn-atl-64.png [/url]

Looks like GFS is shifted it into the pacific, still way way off.

[skyline385]

GFS GFS'ing

Jokes aside, still a sign that we are slowly getting into favorable conditions as models start showing hints of future development.

[url]https://i.ibb.co/7zwyk1z/gfs-mslp-pcpn-atl-64.png [/url]

Looks like GFS is shifted it into the pacific, still way way off.

[url]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/v2/640x480q70/923/Y8QIuQ.png [/url]

Yea that's just how max range GFS will be and why it's notoriously unreliable. As I mentioned earlier, systems beginning to pop up on long range is more of a sign that conditions are becoming favorable and not that something is guaranteed to form, especially when it's the GFS at max range in the Caribbean.

[MGC]

I'm going to try and keep track of how many phantom storms the GFS spins up this season. I might need to pull out my calculator or slide rule............MGC