2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[AnnularCane]

I sort of feel like someday one of these "phantom" GFS storms will turn out to be the real thing.

[jlauderdal]

GFS GFS'ing

Jokes aside, still a sign that we are slowly getting into favorable conditions as models start showing hints of future development.

[url]https://i.ibb.co/7zwyk1z/gfs-mslp-pcpn-atl-64.png [/url]

Looks like GFS is shifted it into the pacific, still way way off.

[url]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/v2/640x480q70/923/Y8QIuQ.png [/url]

Yea that's just how max range GFS will be and why it's notoriously unreliable. As I mentioned earlier, systems beginning to pop up on long range is more of a sign that conditions are becoming favorable and not that something is guaranteed to form, especially when it's the GFS at max range in the Caribbean.

The pattern is looking favorable in early june.

[cycloneye]

And now there are three. The Euro is left to join the others. Let's hope if this becomes a real thing, does not go to Acapulco.

[skyline385]

Looks like GFS is shifted it into the pacific, still way way off.

[url]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/v2/640x480q70/923/Y8QIuQ.png [/url]

Yea that's just how max range GFS will be and why it's notoriously unreliable. As I mentioned earlier, systems beginning to pop up on long range is more of a sign that conditions are becoming favorable and not that something is guaranteed to form, especially when it's the GFS at max range in the Caribbean.

The pattern is looking favorable in early june.

Indeed, EPS still shows the MJO moving in early June

[jlauderdal]

Yea that's just how max range GFS will be and why it's notoriously unreliable. As I mentioned earlier, systems beginning to pop up on long range is more of a sign that conditions are becoming favorable and not that something is guaranteed to form, especially when it's the GFS at max range in the Caribbean.

The pattern is looking favorable in early june.

Indeed, EPS still shows the MJO moving in early June

Si Senor

Start the genny everyone, if it needs service, this is the time. The seasonal forecasts must be taken seriousely, big numbers even if they underachieve. Also, donate what you can, it all adds up.

j

[weeniepatrol]

GFS GFS'ing

Jokes aside, still a sign that we are slowly getting into favorable conditions as models start showing hints of future development.

[url]https://i.ibb.co/7zwyk1z/gfs-mslp-pcpn-atl-64.png [/url]

Phantom season has begun, folks. Welcome to 2024

[crownweather]

Phantom season continues on the GFS model with a system in the Bahamas Memorial Day weekend.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[AnnularCane]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20240511/1380dad0a896a048ff3f71696ec53bcf.jpg

Phantom season continues on the GFS model with a system in the Bahamas Memorial Day weekend.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

And a swirly thing in the EPAC.

[Stratton23]

Favorable MJO phase moving in first week of june, while it could be another phantom system from the GFS, I do believe it is at least seeing the potential for a spin up in the W. Caribbean at the end of the month, it just blows my mind how warm the caribbean is right now

[skyline385]

Favorable MJO phase moving in first week of june, while it could be another phantom system from the GFS, I do believe it is at least seeing the potential for a spin up in the W. Caribbean at the end of the month, it just blows my mind how warm the caribbean is right now

IMO its not the case of a typical GFS phantom as we usually see. EPS and GEFS both show the MJO moving in and extended EPS has a 10-30% chance for a TD in the Caribbean around that time period. Now it could be the GFS Caribbean bias which develops it too much or too quickly but the potential is there.

[Jr0d]

I sort of feel like someday one of these "phantom" GFS storms will turn out to be the real thing.

If one develops, the timeline generally will be pushed back and pushed back.

Of course I don't pay attention to these GFS phantom storms until another model sees something.

[skyline385]

Hmm GFS showing what looks like our first TW in less than a week. It would be right around climo in mid-May.

[skyline385]

Phase diagrams also suggesting a warm core and this is where random spins up tend to happen this time in the season. Temps are slightly lower than usual there because of the cold pool but the loop current could still do its thing. Also on the other models as well.

[tiger_deF]

GFS is now showing a tropical wave moving North in the eastern Caribbean developing into a tropical depression/storm within 120 hours. This might be our first system of the season.

[chaser1]

GFS is now showing a tropical wave moving North in the eastern Caribbean developing into a tropical depression/storm within 120 hours. This might be our first system of the season.

Could happen, especially in this new era of flash tropical cyclone designations we've seen questionable short-lived spin-ups tagged on the merits of a few recon measurements. Looking at the GFS 850 mb vorticity forecast maps, the GFS has had a few recent model runs showing a clear cyclonic spin just north of Panama, right where the ITCZ seems to bulge up from the EPAC and over northern S. American. That coupled by a sharp trough dropping southward and a LARGE upper high building over the Eastern Caribbean, the disturbance mid-level vorticity itself would appear to drift or organize as it lifts northeastward while getting nudged under the building anticyclonic flow however remaining in a shear zone. I could better see a slim chance at short term development by this feature just south of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico and flooding potential that could pose a risk. I think that a Northeast moving disturbance just north of the Islands might see slightly better upper air conditions but only up to about 25N latitude where there would be a significant SST drop-off. Maybe there will be some increasing model support, but I think it's likely ceiling would be a short-lived 1-2 day TD (based on current day official nomenclature) but atm, I don't think this disturbance will quite merit what I would define as a T.D.

[Hurricane2022]

Everybody loves GFS.

[Category5Kaiju]

Everybody loves GFS.
https://imageshack.com/i/pnqn5UBtp

Of course it’s probably just another phantom storm. I’m sure we’re no stranger to that.

But….hey, if there was ever a year that features that kind of system, it’s probably going to be this year lol

[NotSparta]

Phantom time? Welcome to the 2024 hurricane season, folks

[Blown Away]

I sort of feel like someday one of these "phantom" GFS storms will turn out to be the real thing.

Welcome to the start of the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season… The GFS is on point with a May long range Central American Gyre solid phantom Cat 2 hovering around in the Caribbean!!!

[skyline385]

Everybody loves GFS.
https://imageshack.com/i/pnqn5UBtp

First phantom of the season, the 2024 season begins now. The GFS trying to recreate Ian with that outflow lol