cycloneye wrote:The C3S model may run has the same look as other climate models.
I imagine it's because C3S is just an ensemble model consisting of all the climate models and all climate models this month have had very similar solutions.
Moderator: S2k Moderators
cycloneye wrote:The C3S model may run has the same look as other climate models.
cycloneye wrote:The plot keeps thickening.
https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1789033295722016854
cycloneye wrote:The plot keeps thickening.
https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1789033295722016854
chaser1 wrote:Here's a curious thought. I recall that over most of the past years there seemed to be some kind of inverse correlation between the Spring Tornado season, and the Summer/Fall Hurricane season. It seemed that following a very active tornado season, that upcoming Atlantic Hurricane season would tend to be less busy. Conversely, following a underactive Spring Tornado season, those Atlantic Hurricane seasons seemed to produce above average numbers. I do not know if there is adequate science to back that up or simply an incorrect perception. I bring this up simply because this present Tornado season seems quite active, yet so are everyone's projections for the upcoming Hurricane season as well.
chaser1 wrote:Here's a curious thought. I recall that over most of the past years there seemed to be some kind of inverse correlation between the Spring Tornado season, and the Summer/Fall Hurricane season. It seemed that following a very active tornado season, that upcoming Atlantic Hurricane season would tend to be less busy. Conversely, following a underactive Spring Tornado season, those Atlantic Hurricane seasons seemed to produce above average numbers. I do not know if there is adequate science to back that up or simply an incorrect perception. I bring this up simply because this present Tornado season seems quite active, yet so are everyone's projections for the upcoming Hurricane season as well.
Category5Kaiju wrote:The way I understood it, tornado seasons are usually associated with warm Gulf of Mexico temperatures rather than Atlantic activity as a whole (because if that were the case then you probably wouldn't expect to see years like 1998, 2004, 2010, or 2017 up there).
TheAustinMan wrote:chaser1 wrote:Here's a curious thought. I recall that over most of the past years there seemed to be some kind of inverse correlation between the Spring Tornado season, and the Summer/Fall Hurricane season. It seemed that following a very active tornado season, that upcoming Atlantic Hurricane season would tend to be less busy. Conversely, following a underactive Spring Tornado season, those Atlantic Hurricane seasons seemed to produce above average numbers. I do not know if there is adequate science to back that up or simply an incorrect perception. I bring this up simply because this present Tornado season seems quite active, yet so are everyone's projections for the upcoming Hurricane season as well.
There might be a physical relationship between the kinds of upper-level patterns that affect storm tracks over the continental US in spring and the spring/summer patterns that affect the oceanic state for hurricanes, but I'm not convinced much insight can be gained from just the count of tornadoes. If we consider significant tornadoes (EF2+ or F2+), there is hardly a clear relationship between the number of those tornadoes in March/April/May and the Atlantic accumulated cyclone energy.
Source: Made in Excel. Tornado counts from Tornado Archive
https://i.imgur.com/soHbPs4.png
USTropics wrote:TheAustinMan wrote:chaser1 wrote:Here's a curious thought. I recall that over most of the past years there seemed to be some kind of inverse correlation between the Spring Tornado season, and the Summer/Fall Hurricane season. It seemed that following a very active tornado season, that upcoming Atlantic Hurricane season would tend to be less busy. Conversely, following a underactive Spring Tornado season, those Atlantic Hurricane seasons seemed to produce above average numbers. I do not know if there is adequate science to back that up or simply an incorrect perception. I bring this up simply because this present Tornado season seems quite active, yet so are everyone's projections for the upcoming Hurricane season as well.
There might be a physical relationship between the kinds of upper-level patterns that affect storm tracks over the continental US in spring and the spring/summer patterns that affect the oceanic state for hurricanes, but I'm not convinced much insight can be gained from just the count of tornadoes. If we consider significant tornadoes (EF2+ or F2+), there is hardly a clear relationship between the number of those tornadoes in March/April/May and the Atlantic accumulated cyclone energy.
Source: Made in Excel. Tornado counts from Tornado Archive
https://i.imgur.com/soHbPs4.png
As always, excellent work on displaying the data. i would agree there isn't a connection between hurricanes and the quantity of tornadoes. The timescales are significantly different; supercells and MCCs have timescales of hours to ~1 day, hurricanes (especially from AEWs) are more multiweek timescales. I'm curious how the data looks like for transitioning ENSO states (particularly strong El Nino to La Nina by summer transitions). If I recall, 1982-83 and 1997-98 had significant tornadoes and closely resemble our current ENSO transition. I would plot the data, but only have mobile data and a tablet (did some 'tornado chasing' yesterday morning, aka walked out my apartment door here in Tallahassee). Currently there is still ~60-70K of us without power.
USTropics wrote:TheAustinMan wrote:chaser1 wrote:Here's a curious thought. I recall that over most of the past years there seemed to be some kind of inverse correlation between the Spring Tornado season, and the Summer/Fall Hurricane season. It seemed that following a very active tornado season, that upcoming Atlantic Hurricane season would tend to be less busy. Conversely, following a underactive Spring Tornado season, those Atlantic Hurricane seasons seemed to produce above average numbers. I do not know if there is adequate science to back that up or simply an incorrect perception. I bring this up simply because this present Tornado season seems quite active, yet so are everyone's projections for the upcoming Hurricane season as well.
There might be a physical relationship between the kinds of upper-level patterns that affect storm tracks over the continental US in spring and the spring/summer patterns that affect the oceanic state for hurricanes, but I'm not convinced much insight can be gained from just the count of tornadoes. If we consider significant tornadoes (EF2+ or F2+), there is hardly a clear relationship between the number of those tornadoes in March/April/May and the Atlantic accumulated cyclone energy.
Source: Made in Excel. Tornado counts from Tornado Archive
https://i.imgur.com/soHbPs4.png
As always, excellent work on displaying the data. i would agree there isn't a connection between hurricanes and the quantity of tornadoes. The timescales are significantly different; supercells and MCCs have timescales of hours to ~1 day, hurricanes (especially from AEWs) are more multiweek timescales. I'm curious how the data looks like for transitioning ENSO states (particularly strong El Nino to La Nina by summer transitions). If I recall, 1982-83 and 1997-98 had significant tornadoes and closely resemble our current ENSO transition. I would plot the data, but only have mobile data and a tablet (did some 'tornado chasing' yesterday morning, aka walked out my apartment door here in Tallahassee). Currently there is still ~60-70K of us without power.
Category5Kaiju wrote:
I explicitly remember people last year looking at the Atlantic at this point in time (I admit, I was one of them) and breathing a sigh of relief that a strong El Nino was imminent.
Enter 2024.
Users browsing this forum: Emmett_Brown, Google Adsense [Bot], Hurricane2022, Hurricaneman, Javlin, jgh, LarryWx, riapal, South Texas Storms, StormWeather and 108 guests