Thoughts on 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[CrazyC83]

The increased WPAC activity (their busiest season in a while?) might be a hint that the patterns might be flipping long term...we shall see.

[WeatherGuesser]

They have a problem with the 7 day forecast being accurate. Even the 72 hour forecast can be wrong. Seven months or more? Can that even qualify as a forecast? Or is it just a prediction?

[Ntxw]

2014 will be a VERY difficult season to predict. We have not had back-to-back quiet seasons since 1993-94.

Yea but honestly, as I'm sure you know, that fact is meaningless. I've been harping on this for years, but statistically we just don't have enough accurate data to predict any meaningful trends. If we did, well we wouldn't be surprised anymore.

Yes this needs to be emphasized. I posted something like this before. The atmosphere does not have a memory. It doesn't do something because it has done it before or hasn't done it. Whatever the parameters are set it will do and not because of statistics, 2013 has proven this very well.

[Ptarmigan]

2014 will be a VERY difficult season to predict. We have not had back-to-back quiet seasons since 1993-94.

1993 and 1994 was during the cool phase of Atlantic. Sometimes with El Nino, an active season have occurred like 1969 and 2004. Granted, they were weak El Nino.

[Hurricaneman]

Im going to put out a preliminary 2014 hurricane forecast with some reasoning on the first week of December and going to amend it around march 15th and may 15th but based on my ideas the Gulf may have to watch out but as stated that may change. I seriously doubt that 2014 will be anything like this season as I think there will be more quality{couldnt go much lower in quality than this year} so stay tuned

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[gigabite]

Im going to put out a preliminary 2014 hurricane forecast with some reasoning on the first week of December and going to amend it around march 15th and may 15th but based on my ideas the Gulf may have to watch out but as stated that may change. I seriously doubt that 2014 will be anything like this season as I think there will be more quality{couldnt go much lower in quality than this year} so stay tuned

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Here is mine (15/4/1). It is the 1977 analog that I should have used for 2013.
It came in at (13/2/0) verses 2011's (20/3/4).
You might be mistaken about that 2014 will be different from 2013.
It might be more of the same. Analog Graphic

[Hammy]

I will say one thing about this season, while not speculating on what could happen almost a year from now, that one major factor seemed to be the lack of instability, and that could have come from having three consecutive years with 19 storms. That amount in that time could have warmed the upper atmosphere to the point of not being able to support much (even in the most favorable upper air environment) while also exhausting the moisture supply. This was almost unprecedented low activity for as many storms as occured (I believe the lowest ACE per storm) but followed unprecedented three year activity as well. So this may have essentially been a recharge year.

[hurricanes1234]

I will say one thing about this season, while not speculating on what could happen almost a year from now, that one major factor seemed to be the lack of instability, and that could have come from having three consecutive years with 19 storms. That amount in that time could have warmed the upper atmosphere to the point of not being able to support much (even in the most favorable upper air environment) while also exhausting the moisture supply. This was almost unprecedented low activity for as many storms as occured (I believe the lowest ACE per storm) but followed unprecedented three year activity as well. So this may have essentially been a recharge year.

Excellent point, I didn't even think about that. Three consecutive years of high activity will temporarily deplete the moisture, and favourable conditions. Also notice that even though these three years are tied for the 3rd highest number of named storms, their intensities have been on the decline from 2011 onwards. From 4 Category 4s in 2010 to only 2 in 2011 and 0 in both 2012 and 2013. From 5 major hurricanes in 2010 to 4 in 2011 and only 2 in 2012. 2013 had 0 and is unlikely to have a single system forming again (not official). And remember 2010 would have been "charged up" because it was the year following the inactive 2009, plus the La Niña which entered and suppressed the entire Pacific. Indeed, an extremely good point which you have brought to my attention.

[Ntxw]

Indeed it's a good thought. My question is, why this year? Why 2013? Why did it not recharge in 2012? Why not wait till 2014 or 2015? What made this year the it year, instability has been running below for a couple of years. Rather than recharge it was no charge. Early on in the season it was a global issue, the Pacific came alive towards the end but other than that majority of the time was quiet everywhere.

[gigabite]

I will say one thing about this season, while not speculating on what could happen almost a year from now, that one major factor seemed to be the lack of instability, and that could have come from having three consecutive years with 19 storms. That amount in that time could have warmed the upper atmosphere to the point of not being able to support much (even in the most favorable upper air environment) while also exhausting the moisture supply. This was almost unprecedented low activity for as many storms as occured (I believe the lowest ACE per storm) but followed unprecedented three year activity as well. So this may have essentially been a recharge year.

What is curious to me is the fact that except for the last 5 years over the last fifty years or so the 5 year moving average for annual rainfall has been increasing, and all indications are that the polar ice caps are still melting. There is more global fresh water to evaporate yet last year almost the entire US was in a drought condition. If the law of averages holds up it seems to me the US at least is due for some dramatic wet weather over the short term.

[ninel conde]

best to wait and see if we have a mod/strong el nino next season. if so, another 1982 is likely.

[tolakram]

I will say one thing about this season, while not speculating on what could happen almost a year from now, that one major factor seemed to be the lack of instability, and that could have come from having three consecutive years with 19 storms. That amount in that time could have warmed the upper atmosphere to the point of not being able to support much (even in the most favorable upper air environment) while also exhausting the moisture supply. This was almost unprecedented low activity for as many storms as occured (I believe the lowest ACE per storm) but followed unprecedented three year activity as well. So this may have essentially been a recharge year.

But the atmosphere is not static, so 19 storms in the Atlantic is rather meaningless in the long term. This could apply to global activity and might still be a good theory, but I don't think any single basin is going to experience this due to activity in the previous year.

My thinking is the regular pattern of el nino and la nina was masking some other indicator that showed up this year. I think it was ntxw who theorized that the lack of an el nino to mix up the atmosphere might be an issue, and I agree with that, but I can't help but wonder what we would see, globally, if some of these large scale patterns stayed stable for a while. In other words, given stability in SST and other large scale patterns, would we see a year to year continuous decline in activity until it was low enough for the upper atmosphere to cool?

I would like to find or see more studies done on what large scale patterns and shifts do to warm or cool the upper atmosphere? And again, this goes back to el nino and la nina. Without either to suppress activity in one of the basins this may very well lead to a global decrease due to lack of instability.

[gigabite]

...I would like to find or see more studies done on what large scale patterns and shifts do to warm or cool the upper atmosphere?...

This is not a study it is raw data. My point of view is that the closer the sun is to the earth the warmer the plasma shield. The setup is similar to the 2001-2005 pattern that produced a ruckus hurricane count. The difference being is the size of the chronosphere. After this weak solar maximum it is not likely that the combined effect will be duplicated. Earth Sun Distance (aphelion) aka 4th of July

[CrazyC83]

Based on my report just submitted, if the last five seasons occurred before the satellite era, the totals would be (missed includes storms that could only be analyzed as a tropical depression):

2008 - 15/7/3 without satellites; 13/7/3 without satellites or aircraft (actual 16/8/5)
Missed: Cristobal*, Marco*, Nana (*would have been caught with aircraft even without satellites)

2009 - 6/2/1 without satellites; 6/2/0 without satellites or aircraft (actual 9/3/2)
Missed: Ana, Fred, Henri

2010 - 16/8/5 without satellites; 12/7/1 without satellites or aircraft (actual 19/12/5)
Missed: Colin*, Fiona*, Gaston, Julia, Lisa, Otto*, Shary*

2011 - 15/3/1 without satellites; 13/1/1 without satellites or aircraft (actual 19/7/4)
Missed: Bret*, Cindy, Franklin, Gert*, Unnamed, Philippe

2012 - 13/7/1 without satellites; 12/6/1 without satellites or aircraft (actual 19/10/2)
Missed: Florence, Joyce, Kirk, Michael, Oscar, Patty*, Tony

[Category5Kaiju]

You know, it's interesting to think about an alternate reality in which 2013 didn't feature a THC collapse and ended up living up to its fullest potential. How would things in the tropical wx community be different nowadays?

2013 would probably go down in history as an above average, if not hyperactive season. If anything, it might be a heavily-referenced year, joining the likes of years such as 2004, 2005, 2008, and 2017. We probably wouldn't be talking about the possibility of the active era ending as much as we do now. "Season cancel" comments and posts would probably be not as severe and controversial.

And this is the thing that is perhaps most interesting: 2022 would've taken on a new meaning. More people would probably be confused as to why that year was so dead during the early season, and I think in a way it would've assumed 2013's role as the "boogeyman" year that wx people compare future seasons to whenever they feel like the season is going slowly.