NAO PNA and confusion. LR Forecasting. Problem?

[LMolineux]

Ok now first off i know i might have a chance to get flamed here but i am kinda coming for true answers on this.


Ok now here i feel i am onto something. Well first off I have heard that the models were tweaked or improved. I am not sure if i am correct but i have heard multiple times. But with them being tweaked could it have effected them in a sort of way good or bad not sure. But to me my mind has been pondering on the LR stuff. Like the NAO PNA. How correct they are now if they have been badly effected or are truely forecasted to go in as it shows Strong or Mod Neg. for the NAO and mod to strong PNA.

And looking at the GFS now i know its not the best forecast model. But it does not show the patterns of the NAO and PNA in it at all. Beings what i have known or heard of the NAO goign Neg. Doesnt that normally show more for a trough in the east mostly? Well my concern is the GFS isnt even showing any signs of the NAO and PNA changes in it. And also wierdly bringing the 540 534 lines south of Los Angeles now that si something of its off its rocker type of thing. That seriously would be cold enough to have a mixed bag in LA now come on. But here is my point if you understand maybe something is being over looked or being discounted. I know i could be wrong but i feel and think i am onto something. I am sure something is being overlooked and not being entered into the Forecast Models and thus allowing the trough to stay in the west. I know that it might sound like since i am here int he MA i am like crying out or -removed-. But seriously i think there is some data being over looked and not entered into the models thus it giving out some odd readouts/forecasts. Anyone have any ideas?

[NEwxgirl]

Molineux,

I'm not real sure about the models being tweaked, but the GFS and its cold bias will do those sort of things, like pushing the 540 and 534 decameter height lines well to the south of where they will actually end up being. the GFS should only be used to look at the general trending of the pattern out past 126 hours. the GFS skill in the long range is horrible and the cold bias, just makes things worse. Dont take the GFS to heart, no matter how much you might like its output at a specific time. it is not likely to be correct, and will probably show something completely different next run.

be careful with the 06 and 18 UTC runs as well because they usually dont have sufficient data during initialization.

between 0 and 126 hours, the GFS skill is much better and usually will give you a good idea on where things are goingv in the short term, although i think that the ETA is much better. especailly now tha tthe 06 and 18 UTC runs have been extended out to 84 hours.

[LMolineux]

yes true and i have heard the 06 and 18 Z runs are also known as the drier and also warmer also. But that is pure speculation. But yes i have the liking of how the ETA is much better and more accurate as far as NOWCasting and quick short cast is concerned. But the GFS yes is not somethign to just live by and also take with as a grain of salt idea. But it does show good with trends i noticed.

[NEwxgirl]

The ETA will out-preform the GFS in almost every event this winter.

And I have no idea why someone would want to flame you for that question, I think its a very important one.

[NEwxgirl]

Make sure to read our winter outlook tomorrow, its packed with plenty of information on the NAO and PNA and other teleconnections. Hopefully that will answer your questions.

[Guest]

Make sure to read our winter outlook tomorrow, its packed with plenty of information on the NAO and PNA and other teleconnections. Hopefully that will answer your questions.

Well hello NEwxgirl and welcome to storm2k! Very good explanation about the models and such. I do look forward to seing that winter outlook!
And as well i look forward to seing more great post from you as well!!!

[LMolineux]

I should of copied and pasted it a little better i first posted on WWBB and copied and pasted from there. Sorry that is why the flame part is on it.

Second Welcome to the board and also please join us in the chat room.
Also please check out WxChat these two places are like the shining stars of the weather community. You will like both here and WxChat. Once again welcome aborad and enjoy the ride and please dont hesitate to respond or give your input thank you.

[Squall52]

The ETA will out-preform the GFS in almost every event this winter.

And I have no idea why someone would want to flame you for that question, I think its a very important one.

I don't think it's as simple as that. While I'd agree, for the most part the Eta is the better model when it comes down to the last 24 to maybe 48 hours, the GFS can hold it's own. I used to hug the Eta over the GFS anyday, but I've seen that the GFS often is the first to see a change, and the Eta will follow suit. In that critical 48-84hr window I don't think there is any clear cut 'better model', and if anything my instinct would be to look at the GFS first. Beyond that 126hr, and especially 174hr threshold, I agree though...it is trash. Best go look at the ensembles in that range.