92S INVEST 240513 0600 8.0S 53.9E SHEM 20 1006
SIO: IALY - Remnants
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cycloneye
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Re: SIO: INVEST 92S
There is a risk of a moderate tropical storm forming for the next 5 days.
By mid-week, a tropical system could form northeast of Madagascar. The risk of it developing into a tropical storm is estimated to be moderate (30% to 60%) by Wednesday then significant (more than 60%) from Thursday to Saturday.
By mid-week, a tropical system could form northeast of Madagascar. The risk of it developing into a tropical storm is estimated to be moderate (30% to 60%) by Wednesday then significant (more than 60%) from Thursday to Saturday.
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cycloneye
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Re: SIO: INVEST 92S
The risk of the formation of a moderate tropical storm northeast of Madagascar is estimated to be low (less than 30%) by tomorrow. The risk becomes moderate (between 30 and 60%) on Thursday then high (above 60%) at the end of the week.
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cycloneye
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Re: SIO: INVEST 92S
AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.7S
53.1E, APPROXIMATELY 588 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF COMOROS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS INVEST 92S AS AN EXPOSED
BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST. A 140954Z 89GHZ AMSR2 MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS AN
ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING ASSOCIATED WITH
CONVERGENT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW (25-30 KTS) REFERENCED FROM A 140602Z
ASCAT-C IMAGE. THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE WITH MINIMAL VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, 28-29C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS 92S SLOWLY DEVELOPING AS IT DRIFTS
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
53.1E, APPROXIMATELY 588 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF COMOROS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS INVEST 92S AS AN EXPOSED
BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST. A 140954Z 89GHZ AMSR2 MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS AN
ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING ASSOCIATED WITH
CONVERGENT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW (25-30 KTS) REFERENCED FROM A 140602Z
ASCAT-C IMAGE. THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE WITH MINIMAL VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, 28-29C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS 92S SLOWLY DEVELOPING AS IT DRIFTS
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
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cycloneye
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Re: SIO: INVEST 92S
- The Disturbed Zone currently present in the south of the Seychelles archipelago has a risk of developing into a tropical storm estimated to be low by tomorrow Thursday (less than 30%), becoming moderate on Friday (30 to 60%) then strong from from Saturday (above 60%).
- There is no threat envisaged either for the Comoros archipelago, nor for Madagascar, nor for the Mascarenes.
- Heavy rains are forecast in its vicinity, mainly affecting Seychelles and Agaléga.
- There is no threat envisaged either for the Comoros archipelago, nor for Madagascar, nor for the Mascarenes.
- Heavy rains are forecast in its vicinity, mainly affecting Seychelles and Agaléga.
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cycloneye
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Re: SIO: INVEST 92S
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
9.7S 53.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.8S 52.3E, APPROXIMATELY 574 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF COMOROS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR)
AND A 151402Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) PARTIALLY OBSCURED BY RAGGED
CONVECTIVE BANDING TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH AN ASYMMETRIC CIRCULATION.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15-20KT) VWS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW POLEWARD, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST).
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE CIRCULATION
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
9.7S 53.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.8S 52.3E, APPROXIMATELY 574 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF COMOROS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR)
AND A 151402Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) PARTIALLY OBSCURED BY RAGGED
CONVECTIVE BANDING TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH AN ASYMMETRIC CIRCULATION.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15-20KT) VWS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW POLEWARD, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST).
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE CIRCULATION
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
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cycloneye
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Re: SIO: IALY - Moderate Tropical Storm
MODERATE TROPICAL STORM number 11
(IALY)
Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 75 km/h.
Maximum gusts estimated at sea: 100 km/h.
Estimated pressure at center: 1001 hPa.
Position on May 16 at 4 p.m. local: 9.0 South / 52.7 East.
Distance from the Reunion coast: 1350 km to the sector: NORTH-NORTH-WEST
Distance from Mayotte: 930 km to sector: EAST-NORTH-EAST
Movement: WEST, at 7 km/h.
System information:
- System n°11-20232024, monitored since Thursday by the CMRS cyclone of La Réunion, continues its development and reached the stage of moderate tropical storm this afternoon, thus baptized "IALY" by the Madagascar meteorological service ( 10th tropical storm of the season). Its center is located in the south of the Seychelles archipelago, 500 km northeast of Madagascar.
- Tropical Storm IALY is expected to continue progressively intensifying by this weekend by slowly circulating westwards then northwards over the next few days while bringing rainy, stormy and windy conditions particularly to the Outer Islands of Seychelles ( notably the Farquhar Atoll), with rains potentially affecting the northern tip of Madagascar to a lesser extent.
- Even if the trajectory forecast presents fairly high uncertainties, this system does not present any threat either to Mayotte or to Reunion Island according to current data.
(IALY)
Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 75 km/h.
Maximum gusts estimated at sea: 100 km/h.
Estimated pressure at center: 1001 hPa.
Position on May 16 at 4 p.m. local: 9.0 South / 52.7 East.
Distance from the Reunion coast: 1350 km to the sector: NORTH-NORTH-WEST
Distance from Mayotte: 930 km to sector: EAST-NORTH-EAST
Movement: WEST, at 7 km/h.
System information:
- System n°11-20232024, monitored since Thursday by the CMRS cyclone of La Réunion, continues its development and reached the stage of moderate tropical storm this afternoon, thus baptized "IALY" by the Madagascar meteorological service ( 10th tropical storm of the season). Its center is located in the south of the Seychelles archipelago, 500 km northeast of Madagascar.
- Tropical Storm IALY is expected to continue progressively intensifying by this weekend by slowly circulating westwards then northwards over the next few days while bringing rainy, stormy and windy conditions particularly to the Outer Islands of Seychelles ( notably the Farquhar Atoll), with rains potentially affecting the northern tip of Madagascar to a lesser extent.
- Even if the trajectory forecast presents fairly high uncertainties, this system does not present any threat either to Mayotte or to Reunion Island according to current data.
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cycloneye
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Re: SIO: IALY - Moderate Tropical Storm
JTWC:
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL
CYCLONE 24S (IALY) CONSOLIDATING WITH SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING TO THE SOUTH AND WEST WRAPPING INTO THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED TO
THE SOUTHWEST ON THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
SOUTH. A 160607Z METOP-B ASCAT HIGHLIGHTED THE ASYMMETRICAL NATURE
OF THE WIND FIELD, CONVEYING WIND SPEEDS AS WEAK AS 15-20KTS ON THE
NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM AND ELEVATED SPEEDS EXCEEDING
WARNING CRITERIA TO THE SOUTHWEST. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE GIVEN THE MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW, 29-30C SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, AND MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 10-15KTS. THE
INITIAL POSITION WAS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON
ANIMATED MSI, THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED ASCAT-B IMAGE, AND A 160942Z
89GHZ AMSR2 IMAGE DEPICTING DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WRAPPING IN TO THE LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS
ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
SCATTEROMETRY DATA.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL
CYCLONE 24S (IALY) CONSOLIDATING WITH SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING TO THE SOUTH AND WEST WRAPPING INTO THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED TO
THE SOUTHWEST ON THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
SOUTH. A 160607Z METOP-B ASCAT HIGHLIGHTED THE ASYMMETRICAL NATURE
OF THE WIND FIELD, CONVEYING WIND SPEEDS AS WEAK AS 15-20KTS ON THE
NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM AND ELEVATED SPEEDS EXCEEDING
WARNING CRITERIA TO THE SOUTHWEST. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE GIVEN THE MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW, 29-30C SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, AND MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 10-15KTS. THE
INITIAL POSITION WAS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON
ANIMATED MSI, THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED ASCAT-B IMAGE, AND A 160942Z
89GHZ AMSR2 IMAGE DEPICTING DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WRAPPING IN TO THE LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS
ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
SCATTEROMETRY DATA.
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cycloneye
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Re: SIO: IALY - Moderate Tropical Storm
MODERATE TROPICAL STORM number 11
(IALY)
Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 75 km/h.
Maximum gusts estimated at sea: 100 km/h.
Estimated pressure at center: 999 hPa.
Position on May 16 at 10 p.m. local: 9.0 South / 52.2 East.
Distance from the Reunion coast: 1365 km to the sector: NORTH-NORTH-WEST
Distance from Mayotte: 880 km to sector: EAST-NORTH-EAST
Travel: WEST, at 9 km/h.
System information:
- Tropical storm IALY (named late in the afternoon by the Malagasy meteorological services) continues to become better organized and its center is located in the south of the Seychelles archipelago, 500 km northeast of the tip of Madagascar.
- Tropical Storm IALY is expected to continue progressively intensifying by this weekend by slowly circulating westwards then northwards over the next few days while bringing rainy, stormy and windy conditions particularly to the Outer Islands of Seychelles ( notably the Farquhar Atoll), with rains potentially affecting the northern tip of Madagascar to a lesser extent. In addition, the sea is very rough on the Outer Islands of the Seychelles with waves of 4 to 6m (the largest waves can reach 10m).
- Even if the trajectory forecast presents fairly high uncertainties, this system does not present any threat either to Mayotte or to Reunion Island according to current data.
(IALY)
Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 75 km/h.
Maximum gusts estimated at sea: 100 km/h.
Estimated pressure at center: 999 hPa.
Position on May 16 at 10 p.m. local: 9.0 South / 52.2 East.
Distance from the Reunion coast: 1365 km to the sector: NORTH-NORTH-WEST
Distance from Mayotte: 880 km to sector: EAST-NORTH-EAST
Travel: WEST, at 9 km/h.
System information:
- Tropical storm IALY (named late in the afternoon by the Malagasy meteorological services) continues to become better organized and its center is located in the south of the Seychelles archipelago, 500 km northeast of the tip of Madagascar.
- Tropical Storm IALY is expected to continue progressively intensifying by this weekend by slowly circulating westwards then northwards over the next few days while bringing rainy, stormy and windy conditions particularly to the Outer Islands of Seychelles ( notably the Farquhar Atoll), with rains potentially affecting the northern tip of Madagascar to a lesser extent. In addition, the sea is very rough on the Outer Islands of the Seychelles with waves of 4 to 6m (the largest waves can reach 10m).
- Even if the trajectory forecast presents fairly high uncertainties, this system does not present any threat either to Mayotte or to Reunion Island according to current data.
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cycloneye
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Re: SIO: IALY - Moderate Tropical Storm
MODERATE TROPICAL STORM number 11
(IALY)
Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 75 km/h.
Maximum gusts estimated at sea: 100 km/h.
Estimated pressure at center: 999 hPa.
Position on May 17 at 4 a.m. local time: 9.1 South / 51.9 East.
Distance from the Reunion coast: 1365 km to the sector: NORTH-NORTH-WEST
Distance from Mayotte: 840 km to sector: EAST-NORTH-EAST
Movement: WEST, at 7 km/h.
System information:
- Tropical storm IALY (named yesterday late afternoon by the Malagasy meteorological services) has changed little in recent hours and its center is located this morning in the south of the Seychelles archipelago, at just under 500 km northeast of the tip of Madagascar.
- Tropical Storm IALY is expected to continue progressively intensifying by this weekend by slowly circulating westwards then northwards over the next few days while bringing rainy, stormy and windy conditions particularly to the Outer Islands of Seychelles ( notably the Farquhar Atoll), with rains potentially affecting the northern tip of Madagascar to a lesser extent. In addition, the sea is very rough on the Outer Islands of the Seychelles with waves of 4 to 6m (the largest waves can reach 10m).
- Even if the trajectory forecast presents fairly high uncertainties, this system does not present any threat either to Mayotte or to Reunion Island according to current data.
(IALY)
Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 75 km/h.
Maximum gusts estimated at sea: 100 km/h.
Estimated pressure at center: 999 hPa.
Position on May 17 at 4 a.m. local time: 9.1 South / 51.9 East.
Distance from the Reunion coast: 1365 km to the sector: NORTH-NORTH-WEST
Distance from Mayotte: 840 km to sector: EAST-NORTH-EAST
Movement: WEST, at 7 km/h.
System information:
- Tropical storm IALY (named yesterday late afternoon by the Malagasy meteorological services) has changed little in recent hours and its center is located this morning in the south of the Seychelles archipelago, at just under 500 km northeast of the tip of Madagascar.
- Tropical Storm IALY is expected to continue progressively intensifying by this weekend by slowly circulating westwards then northwards over the next few days while bringing rainy, stormy and windy conditions particularly to the Outer Islands of Seychelles ( notably the Farquhar Atoll), with rains potentially affecting the northern tip of Madagascar to a lesser extent. In addition, the sea is very rough on the Outer Islands of the Seychelles with waves of 4 to 6m (the largest waves can reach 10m).
- Even if the trajectory forecast presents fairly high uncertainties, this system does not present any threat either to Mayotte or to Reunion Island according to current data.
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cycloneye
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Re: SIO: IALY - Moderate Tropical Storm
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cycloneye
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Re: SIO: IALY - Moderate Tropical Storm
MODERATE TROPICAL STORM number 11
(IALY)
Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 75 km/h.
Maximum gusts estimated at sea: 100 km/h.
Estimated pressure at center: 1000 hPa.
Position on May 17 at 10 p.m. local: 8.5 South / 49.7 East.
Distance from the Reunion coast: 1500 km to the sector: NORTH-NORTH-WEST
Distance from Mayotte: 690 km to sector: NORTHEAST
Movement: WEST-NORTH-WEST, at 13 km/h.
System information:
- Tropical storm IALY continues to cross the south of the Seychelles archipelago, approximately 400 km north of Madagascar.
- It is expected to gradually intensify this weekend by circulating west-northwest then north while bringing rainy, stormy, windy conditions and very rough seas to the Outer Islands of the Seychelles (notably Astove and Aldabra) , with rains potentially affecting the northeast of Madagascar in its wake.
- Confidence increases in the trajectory forecast, confirming the absence of any threat to Mayotte and even more so to Reunion Island.
- This system should weaken definitively around Tuesday without affecting other inhabited lands.
(IALY)
Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 75 km/h.
Maximum gusts estimated at sea: 100 km/h.
Estimated pressure at center: 1000 hPa.
Position on May 17 at 10 p.m. local: 8.5 South / 49.7 East.
Distance from the Reunion coast: 1500 km to the sector: NORTH-NORTH-WEST
Distance from Mayotte: 690 km to sector: NORTHEAST
Movement: WEST-NORTH-WEST, at 13 km/h.
System information:
- Tropical storm IALY continues to cross the south of the Seychelles archipelago, approximately 400 km north of Madagascar.
- It is expected to gradually intensify this weekend by circulating west-northwest then north while bringing rainy, stormy, windy conditions and very rough seas to the Outer Islands of the Seychelles (notably Astove and Aldabra) , with rains potentially affecting the northeast of Madagascar in its wake.
- Confidence increases in the trajectory forecast, confirming the absence of any threat to Mayotte and even more so to Reunion Island.
- This system should weaken definitively around Tuesday without affecting other inhabited lands.
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cycloneye
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Re: SIO: IALY - Moderate Tropical Storm
MODERATE TROPICAL STORM number 11
(IALY)
Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 75 km/h.
Maximum gusts estimated at sea: 100 km/h.
Estimated pressure at center: 997 hPa.
Position on May 18 at 10 a.m. local: 7.8 South / 48.4 East.
Distance from the Reunion coast: 1630 km to the sector: NORTH-NORTH-WEST
Distance from Mayotte: 660 km to sector: NORTH-NORTH-EAST
Travel: WEST, at 11 km/h.
System information:
- Moderate tropical storm IALY continues to circulate over the southwest of the Seychelles archipelago, more than 450 km north of Madagascar, while remaining away from inhabited lands.
- It should experience gradual intensification this weekend, allowing it to probably reach the stage of a strong tropical storm by Sunday.
- Its trajectory towards the west-northwest then turning towards the north on Sunday should reduce the risk of dangerous weather conditions for the Outer Islands of Seychelles (Astove, Cosmoledo, Aldabra), passing sufficiently offshore. In its wake, locally heavy rains affect the northeast of Madagascar this Saturday.
- This system should weaken definitively around Tuesday without affecting other inhabited lands.
(IALY)
Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 75 km/h.
Maximum gusts estimated at sea: 100 km/h.
Estimated pressure at center: 997 hPa.
Position on May 18 at 10 a.m. local: 7.8 South / 48.4 East.
Distance from the Reunion coast: 1630 km to the sector: NORTH-NORTH-WEST
Distance from Mayotte: 660 km to sector: NORTH-NORTH-EAST
Travel: WEST, at 11 km/h.
System information:
- Moderate tropical storm IALY continues to circulate over the southwest of the Seychelles archipelago, more than 450 km north of Madagascar, while remaining away from inhabited lands.
- It should experience gradual intensification this weekend, allowing it to probably reach the stage of a strong tropical storm by Sunday.
- Its trajectory towards the west-northwest then turning towards the north on Sunday should reduce the risk of dangerous weather conditions for the Outer Islands of Seychelles (Astove, Cosmoledo, Aldabra), passing sufficiently offshore. In its wake, locally heavy rains affect the northeast of Madagascar this Saturday.
- This system should weaken definitively around Tuesday without affecting other inhabited lands.
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cycloneye
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Re: SIO: IALY - Moderate Tropical Storm
WDXS31 PGTW 181500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (IALY) WARNING NR
005//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 7.8S 47.9E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 668 NM NORTH OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 07 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 15 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS BECOME MORE COMPACT AS CENTRAL CONVECTION DEEPENED AND OBSCURED
THE PREVIOUSLY PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE USING LOW CLOUD
TRACING INTO THE OBSCURED LLC AND EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE RECENT
STORM MOTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
BASED ON THE HIGH END OF AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES AND
REFLECTS THE 6-HR CONVECTIVE IMPROVEMENT. ANALYSIS INDICATES A
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND
WARM SST OFFSET BY MODERATE VWS AND COLD DRY AIR INTRUSION AT THE LOW
LEVELS.
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (IALY) WARNING NR
005//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 7.8S 47.9E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 668 NM NORTH OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 07 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 15 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS BECOME MORE COMPACT AS CENTRAL CONVECTION DEEPENED AND OBSCURED
THE PREVIOUSLY PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE USING LOW CLOUD
TRACING INTO THE OBSCURED LLC AND EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE RECENT
STORM MOTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
BASED ON THE HIGH END OF AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES AND
REFLECTS THE 6-HR CONVECTIVE IMPROVEMENT. ANALYSIS INDICATES A
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND
WARM SST OFFSET BY MODERATE VWS AND COLD DRY AIR INTRUSION AT THE LOW
LEVELS.
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cycloneye
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Re: SIO: IALY - Strong Tropical Storm
STRONG TROPICAL STORM number 11
(IALY)
Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 95 km/h.
Maximum gusts estimated at sea: 130 km/h.
Estimated pressure at center: 992 hPa.
Position on May 19 at 4 a.m. local time: 7.4 South / 46.4 East.
Distance from the Reunion coast: 1775 km to sector: NORTH-WEST
Distance from Mayotte: 620 km to sector: NORTH-NORTH-EAST
Movement: WEST-NORTH-WEST, at 13 km/h.
System information:
- Tropical storm IALY is circulating over the west of the Seychelles archipelago, nearly 200 km north of Aldabra. It reached the stage of a strong tropical storm last night and moved towards the northwest
- It could further intensify this Sunday. However, its trajectory towards the northwest then turning towards the north this evening should keep it far from inhabited lands. The Aldabra area should gradually emerge from the peripheral influence of this system today
- This system should weaken definitively around Tuesday.
(IALY)
Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 95 km/h.
Maximum gusts estimated at sea: 130 km/h.
Estimated pressure at center: 992 hPa.
Position on May 19 at 4 a.m. local time: 7.4 South / 46.4 East.
Distance from the Reunion coast: 1775 km to sector: NORTH-WEST
Distance from Mayotte: 620 km to sector: NORTH-NORTH-EAST
Movement: WEST-NORTH-WEST, at 13 km/h.
System information:
- Tropical storm IALY is circulating over the west of the Seychelles archipelago, nearly 200 km north of Aldabra. It reached the stage of a strong tropical storm last night and moved towards the northwest
- It could further intensify this Sunday. However, its trajectory towards the northwest then turning towards the north this evening should keep it far from inhabited lands. The Aldabra area should gradually emerge from the peripheral influence of this system today
- This system should weaken definitively around Tuesday.
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cycloneye
- Admin
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- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
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Re: SIO: IALY - Strong Tropical Storm
STRONG TROPICAL STORM number 11
(IALY)
Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 110 km/h.
Maximum gusts estimated at sea: 155 km/h.
Estimated pressure at center: 983 hPa.
Position on May 19 at 10 a.m. local: 7.4 South / 45.9 East.
Distance from the Reunion coast: 1810 km to sector: NORTH-WEST
Distance from Mayotte: 610 km to sector: NORTH
Travel: WEST, at 9 km/h.
System information:
- IALY circulates in the west of the Seychelles archipelago (outer islands), nearly 220 km north-northwest of the island of Aldabra.
- IALY is currently experiencing an intensification phase, but nevertheless remains at the upper stage of a strong tropical storm.
- After continuing an eastward trajectory during the previous night, IALY should curve its trajectory towards the north-northwest while remaining a mature system, but nevertheless remaining a good distance from inhabited land.
- It could further intensify this Sunday to the stage of tropical cyclone, even if this is not the preferred option in our latest forecasts.
- This system should start to weaken tomorrow Monday, then definitely from Tuesday.
(IALY)
Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 110 km/h.
Maximum gusts estimated at sea: 155 km/h.
Estimated pressure at center: 983 hPa.
Position on May 19 at 10 a.m. local: 7.4 South / 45.9 East.
Distance from the Reunion coast: 1810 km to sector: NORTH-WEST
Distance from Mayotte: 610 km to sector: NORTH
Travel: WEST, at 9 km/h.
System information:
- IALY circulates in the west of the Seychelles archipelago (outer islands), nearly 220 km north-northwest of the island of Aldabra.
- IALY is currently experiencing an intensification phase, but nevertheless remains at the upper stage of a strong tropical storm.
- After continuing an eastward trajectory during the previous night, IALY should curve its trajectory towards the north-northwest while remaining a mature system, but nevertheless remaining a good distance from inhabited land.
- It could further intensify this Sunday to the stage of tropical cyclone, even if this is not the preferred option in our latest forecasts.
- This system should start to weaken tomorrow Monday, then definitely from Tuesday.
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cycloneye
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- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
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Re: SIO: IALY - Moderate Tropical Storm
MODERATE TROPICAL STORM number 11
(IALY)
Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 85 km/h.
Maximum gusts estimated at sea: 120 km/h.
Estimated pressure at center: 991 hPa.
Position on May 20 at 4 a.m. local time: 6.8 South / 44.8 East.
Distance from the Reunion coast: 1930 km to sector: NORTH-WEST
Distance from Mayotte: 670 km to sector: NORTH
Movement: NORTH-WEST, at 9 km/h.
System information:
- IALY slightly decreased in intensity overnight and was downgraded to moderate tropical storm status. At 4 a.m. this morning, it was located approximately 350km northwest of Aldabra (Seychelles Archipelago) and continues its turn towards the North while remaining a good distance from inhabited lands.
- IALY is currently experiencing mixed environmental conditions preventing it from further intensifying. It should therefore remain at the moderate tropical storm stage for the next 24 hours before weakening significantly on Tuesday and dissipating on Wednesday.
- IALY does not present a threat to inhabited lands.
(IALY)
Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 85 km/h.
Maximum gusts estimated at sea: 120 km/h.
Estimated pressure at center: 991 hPa.
Position on May 20 at 4 a.m. local time: 6.8 South / 44.8 East.
Distance from the Reunion coast: 1930 km to sector: NORTH-WEST
Distance from Mayotte: 670 km to sector: NORTH
Movement: NORTH-WEST, at 9 km/h.
System information:
- IALY slightly decreased in intensity overnight and was downgraded to moderate tropical storm status. At 4 a.m. this morning, it was located approximately 350km northwest of Aldabra (Seychelles Archipelago) and continues its turn towards the North while remaining a good distance from inhabited lands.
- IALY is currently experiencing mixed environmental conditions preventing it from further intensifying. It should therefore remain at the moderate tropical storm stage for the next 24 hours before weakening significantly on Tuesday and dissipating on Wednesday.
- IALY does not present a threat to inhabited lands.
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cycloneye
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- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
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Re: SIO: IALY - Moderate Tropical Storm
MODERATE TROPICAL STORM number 11
(IALY)
Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 75 km/h.
Maximum gusts estimated at sea: 100 km/h.
Estimated pressure at center: 996 hPa.
Position on May 20 at 10 a.m. local: 6.1 South / 43.8 East.
Distance from the Reunion coast: 2065 km to sector: NORTH-WEST
Distance from Mayotte: 770 km to sector: NORTH
Movement: NORTH-WEST, at 9 km/h.
System information:
- IALY is still at the moderate tropical storm stage although it is still decreasing in intensity during the morning. At 8 a.m. this morning, it was located approximately 370km northwest of Aldabra (Seychelles Archipelago). It continues a northern sector trajectory while remaining a good distance from inhabited lands.
- IALY is currently experiencing mixed environmental conditions preventing it from further intensifying. It should therefore remain at the moderate tropical storm stage for the next 24 hours before weakening significantly on Tuesday and dissipating on Wednesday.
- IALY does not present a threat to inhabited lands.
(IALY)
Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 75 km/h.
Maximum gusts estimated at sea: 100 km/h.
Estimated pressure at center: 996 hPa.
Position on May 20 at 10 a.m. local: 6.1 South / 43.8 East.
Distance from the Reunion coast: 2065 km to sector: NORTH-WEST
Distance from Mayotte: 770 km to sector: NORTH
Movement: NORTH-WEST, at 9 km/h.
System information:
- IALY is still at the moderate tropical storm stage although it is still decreasing in intensity during the morning. At 8 a.m. this morning, it was located approximately 370km northwest of Aldabra (Seychelles Archipelago). It continues a northern sector trajectory while remaining a good distance from inhabited lands.
- IALY is currently experiencing mixed environmental conditions preventing it from further intensifying. It should therefore remain at the moderate tropical storm stage for the next 24 hours before weakening significantly on Tuesday and dissipating on Wednesday.
- IALY does not present a threat to inhabited lands.
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cycloneye
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Re: SIO: IALY - Moderate Tropical Storm
WDXS31 PGTW 201500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (IALY) WARNING NR
009//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 5.8S 43.8E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 50 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 275 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF DAR ES SALAAM,
TANZANIA
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 20 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS DEEP
CONVECTION REDEVELOPING AROUND THE CIRCULATION CENTER, WHICH
PRESENTS AS AN EYE FEATURE IN 201055Z AMSR2 IMAGERY. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE NEAR THE MICROWAVE EYE
EVIDENT IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AMSR2 PASS. ONGOING RECONSOLIDATION
OF THE LOW-LEVEL STRUCTURE AND AN APPARENT JOG FARTHER TO THE WEST
THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED IS CONTRIBUTING SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THE
INTIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES, A CIMSS AIDT VALUE OF 52 KTS, AND SUPPORTIVE
PRESENTATION IN MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY. OTHER AUTOMATED
INTENSITY GUIDANCE, INCLUDING THE CIMSS SATELLITE CONSENSUS,
AUTOMATED DVORAK AND DPRINT APPEAR TO BE UNDER-ANALYZING THE
INTENSITY, PARTICULARLY IN LIGHT OF THE MICROWAVE SATELLITE
PRESENTATION, AND POSSIBLY DUE TO THE COMPACTNESS OF THE SYSTEM.
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (IALY) WARNING NR
009//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 5.8S 43.8E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 50 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 275 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF DAR ES SALAAM,
TANZANIA
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 20 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS DEEP
CONVECTION REDEVELOPING AROUND THE CIRCULATION CENTER, WHICH
PRESENTS AS AN EYE FEATURE IN 201055Z AMSR2 IMAGERY. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE NEAR THE MICROWAVE EYE
EVIDENT IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AMSR2 PASS. ONGOING RECONSOLIDATION
OF THE LOW-LEVEL STRUCTURE AND AN APPARENT JOG FARTHER TO THE WEST
THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED IS CONTRIBUTING SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THE
INTIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES, A CIMSS AIDT VALUE OF 52 KTS, AND SUPPORTIVE
PRESENTATION IN MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY. OTHER AUTOMATED
INTENSITY GUIDANCE, INCLUDING THE CIMSS SATELLITE CONSENSUS,
AUTOMATED DVORAK AND DPRINT APPEAR TO BE UNDER-ANALYZING THE
INTENSITY, PARTICULARLY IN LIGHT OF THE MICROWAVE SATELLITE
PRESENTATION, AND POSSIBLY DUE TO THE COMPACTNESS OF THE SYSTEM.
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