2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[AnnularCane]

I thought it was the second phantom of the season. Maybe I'm thinking of something else. Like gyres.

[Category5Kaiju]

Everybody loves GFS.
https://imageshack.com/i/pnqn5UBtp

First phantom of the season, the 2024 season begins now. The GFS trying to recreate Ian with that outflow lol

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/X78b5pvM/image.png [/url]

Ah yes.

[chaser1]

Everybody loves GFS.
https://imageshack.com/i/pnqn5UBtp

Of course it’s probably just another phantom storm. I’m sure we’re no stranger to that.

But….hey, if there was ever a year that features that kind of system, it’s probably going to be this year lol

Me loves a good happy hour

[chaser1]

Everybody loves GFS.
https://imageshack.com/i/pnqn5UBtp

First phantom of the season, the 2024 season begins now. The GFS trying to recreate Ian with that outflow lol

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/X78b5pvM/image.png [/url]

Ah yes.

https://cdn.britannica.com/09/238409-050-6BC61695/Hurrican-Ian-over-Gulf-Of-Mexico-NOAA-GOES-Satellite-image-September-27-2022.jpg

That looks about right for June 3rd Boy, is it gonna be a LONG season or what??

[AnnularCane]

Everybody loves GFS.
https://imageshack.com/i/pnqn5UBtp

Of course it’s probably just another phantom storm. I’m sure we’re no stranger to that.

But….hey, if there was ever a year that features that kind of system, it’s probably going to be this year lol

Me loves a good happy hour

Enjoy it while you can, for someday it will be for real.

[chaser1]

Of course it’s probably just another phantom storm. I’m sure we’re no stranger to that.

But….hey, if there was ever a year that features that kind of system, it’s probably going to be this year lol

Me loves a good happy hour

Enjoy it while you can, for someday it will be for real.

FACT!

[tiger_deF]

00z GFS keeps on trying to spin up a TD/TS from the northern lobe of a CAG moving off of Panama in a few days. Given the time of the year, this wouldn't be unprecedented via climatology. Would be an uphill battle for this disturbance, but as has been said before it would have a secondary shot at development once it is North of the Antilles.

Wouldn't be surprised if this gets tagged in a couple of days or sooner.

[chaser1]

00z GFS keeps on trying to spin up a TD/TS from the northern lobe of a CAG moving off of Panama in a few days. Given the time of the year, this wouldn't be unprecedented via climatology. Would be an uphill battle for this disturbance, but as has been said before it would have a secondary shot at development once it is North of the Antilles.

Wouldn't be surprised if this gets tagged in a couple of days or sooner.

"A couple of days or sooner"? I think your odds of winning the lottery (without even buying a ticket) are greater. Climatology minus (-) a tropical disturbance = a fever-dream

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/ToddKimberlain/status/1792575303266484735

[skyline385]

That little disturbance from the Caribbean on the GFS which Levi said could have a brief chance at being a STS now showing up on the Euro too.

[Stratton23]

The 18z GFS has a pretty active SA monsoonal gyre, with another piece of energy trying to develop near the yucatan, first week of june so it could easily be another false alarm from the GFS, but something to casually watch as any sort of CAG like setup could help to produce low pressure in the caribbean

[jfk08c]

The 18z GFS has a pretty active SA monsoonal gyre, with another piece of energy trying to develop near the yucatan, first week of june so it could easily be another false alarm from the GFS, but something to casually watch as any sort of CAG like setup could help to produce low pressure in the caribbean

Both GEFS and GEPS showing pretty strong signal around that time. Time will tell if it sticks, still a ways to go

[kevin]

GFS has shown this feature for a lot of runs already and formation is now already at +48 hours and about 3 days until it's fully closed. Could this be the first (sub-)tropical storm of the season?

+48


+78

[Jr0d]

GFS has shown this feature for a lot of runs already and formation is now already at +48 hours and about 3 days until it's fully closed. Could this be the first (sub-)tropical storm of the season?

This 'disturbance' is already causing some rain for Hispaniola and eastern Cuba.

Only the GFS shows it possibly becoming something to track as it pulls north of the islands. The NHC certainly is not buying the GFS solution.

[chaser1]

I'll say this much, it is a viable tropical disturbance on the western edge of a significant upper high. The upper ventilation in concert with the warm SST's are helping to fuel some decent convection. While I do not see any low level organization, I wouldn't say it has no shot at slow development. Kinda depends on persistence and motion. I've got to give the GFS some props for consistency though and this alone warrants rationale consideration. The pressure field/gradient certainly would appear adequate if the GFS were to verify, yet the SST up at that latitude are not at all warm (sub 25C?). Still, lets see what happens and especially if the feature develops some level of reasonable tropical characteristics AND persistence. At least we won't have any imminent landfall impact to force unnecessary tropical designation soley for the sake of immediate warnings.

[Stratton23]

Although i dont really expect any sort of tropical mischief until june, models are showing over the next 10-14 days a couple of weak fronts moving through the state and out into the gulf, with the gulf running way above normal its always worth watching any sort of front that can get out over the warm gulf waters, its likely that nothing will happen, but you know the saying, never trust a front in the gulf

[JetFuel_SE]

I'll say this much, it is a viable tropical disturbance on the western edge of a significant upper high. The upper ventilation in concert with the warm SST's are helping to fuel some decent convection. While I do not see any low level organization, I wouldn't say it has no shot at slow development. Kinda depends on persistence and motion. I've got to give the GFS some props for consistency though and this alone warrants rationale consideration. The pressure field/gradient certainly would appear adequate if the GFS were to verify, yet the SST up at that latitude are not at all warm (sub 25C?). Still, lets see what happens and especially if the feature develops some level of reasonable tropical characteristics AND persistence. At least we won't have any imminent landfall impact to force unnecessary tropical designation soley for the sake of immediate warnings.

Even 23C would certainly be enough for a subtropical system to form, just look at what half of stuff in the Mediterranean has to deal with.

[chaser1]

I'll say this much, it is a viable tropical disturbance on the western edge of a significant upper high. The upper ventilation in concert with the warm SST's are helping to fuel some decent convection. While I do not see any low level organization, I wouldn't say it has no shot at slow development. Kinda depends on persistence and motion. I've got to give the GFS some props for consistency though and this alone warrants rationale consideration. The pressure field/gradient certainly would appear adequate if the GFS were to verify, yet the SST up at that latitude are not at all warm (sub 25C?). Still, lets see what happens and especially if the feature develops some level of reasonable tropical characteristics AND persistence. At least we won't have any imminent landfall impact to force unnecessary tropical designation soley for the sake of immediate warnings.

Even 23C would certainly be enough for a subtropical system to form, just look at what half of stuff in the Mediterranean has to deal with.

Very true; I just have very little interest in sub-tropical slop (especially having those type of systems named)

[Stratton23]

18z GFS with the happy hour hurricane near the bahamas lol, gotta love it

[skyline385]

18z GFS with the happy hour hurricane near the bahamas lol, gotta love it

Funny thing is there is a 947mb 12z EPS member taking nearly the exact same path as happy hour GFS