SIO: IALY - Remnants

[Monsoonjr99]

Wondering if this might possibly cross the equator tomorrow. Likely a remnant swirl since the shear hammer should soon come down hard on this, but still interesting if we get to see a clockwise spin in the northern hemisphere.

[cycloneye]

Wondering if this might possibly cross the equator tomorrow. Likely a remnant swirl since the shear hammer should soon come down hard on this, but still interesting if we get to see a clockwise spin in the northern hemisphere.

Yers, interesting the future track of it. Let's see if it makes the crossing.

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

STRONG TROPICAL STORM number 11

(IALY)

Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 100 km/h.

Maximum gusts estimated at sea: 150 km/h.

Estimated pressure at center: 992 hPa.

Position on May 21 at 4 a.m. local time: 5.1 South / 43.0 East.

Distance from the Reunion coast: 2195 km to sector: NORTH-WEST

Distance from Mayotte: 890 km to sector: NORTH-NORTH-WEST

Travel: NORTH, at 13 km/h.

System information:

- IALY intensified to the stage of a strong tropical storm. At 00UTC, it is located more than 350 km east of the Zanzibar archipelago. It continues a northern sector trajectory while remaining a good distance from inhabited land.

- IALY is currently experiencing good environmental conditions which will allow it to remain at the stage of a strong tropical storm until the end of the night. Its weakening should begin Tuesday morning and the system should return to the moderate tropical storm stage by late morning then a depression dissipating on Wednesday.

- Waves of 4 to 6m are expected on Tuesday near the coasts of Kenya and southern Somalia.

[Hurricane2022]

[Hurricane2022]

 https://twitter.com/KeviShader/status/1792827606720749754

[cycloneye]

STRONG TROPICAL STORM number 11

(IALY)

Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 110 km/h.

Maximum gusts estimated at sea: 155 km/h.

Estimated pressure at center: 986 hPa.

Position on May 21 at 10 a.m. local: 4.9 South / 42.5 East.

Distance from the Reunion coast: 2255 km to sector: NORTH-WEST

Distance from Mayotte: 930 km to sector: NORTH-NORTH-WEST

Movement: NORTH-WEST, at 13 km/h.

System information:

- IALY writes a new page in the history of the South-West Indian Ocean basin, remaining in the upper stage of a strong tropical storm this Tuesday, May 21 morning, less than 350 km from Pemba Island (the southernmost). north of the Zanzibar archipelago, Tanzania) and Mombasa (Kenya). It is indeed an exceptionally intense system for this area of ​​the basin: it is the first tropical storm ever recorded since the start of the satellite era northwest of 5°S/45°E.

- IALY could remain at significant intensity for the day, before weakening more quickly from this evening and next night, to dissipate definitively tomorrow Wednesday.

- Its revised trajectory a little further west should bring the periphery of the system close to the African coasts, causing moderate rain-stormy and windy degradation on the coastal fringe of Tanzania and Kenya and southern Somalia, as well as waves of 4 to 5 meters on the coasts of Kenya and southern Somalia.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL CYCLONE number 11

(IALY)

Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 120 km/h.

Maximum gusts estimated at sea: 165 km/h.

Estimated pressure at center: 983 hPa.

Position on May 21 at 4 p.m. local: 4.7 South / 42.1 East.

Distance from the Reunion coast: 2300 km to sector: NORTH-WEST

Distance from Mayotte: 970 km to sector: NORTH-NORTH-WEST

Movement: NORTH-WEST, at 9 km/h.

System information:

IALY intensified at the Tropical Cyclone stage this Tuesday, May 21 in the middle of the day, thus writing a new page in the History of the South-West Indian Ocean basin: since the beginning of the satellite era, no such an intense system had never been observed so far to the northwest (notably northwest of 5°S/45°E) and so close to the coasts of Kenya.

- The center of IALY is located just 250 km from Pemba Island (the northernmost of the Zanzibar archipelago, Tanzania) and less than 300 km from Mombasa (Kenya). The peripheral bands of the system begin to concern part of the African coast.

- IALY should begin to weaken this evening and next night, before dissipating definitively tomorrow Wednesday, while remaining offshore despite a planned passage less than 150 km from the Kenyan coast.

- Moderate rain-stormy and windy degradation is expected in the western periphery of the system on the coastal fringe of Tanzania, Kenya and southern Somalia, as well as waves of 4 to 5 meters on the coasts of Kenya and Somalia. southern Somalia.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/TyphoonTCX/status/1792911598266294339

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/KeviShader/status/1792926291416465661

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/burgwx/status/1792974995401932845




 https://x.com/burgwx/status/1792975326110462035

[cycloneye]

STRONG TROPICAL STORM number 11

(IALY)

Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 100 km/h.

Maximum gusts estimated at sea: 150 km/h.

Estimated pressure at center: 987 hPa.

Position on May 21 at 10 p.m. local: 4.2 South / 42.0 East.

Distance from the Reunion coast: 2350 km to sector: NORTH-WEST

Distance from Mayotte: 1020 km to sector: NORTH-NORTH-WEST

Travel: NORTH, at 9 km/h.

System information:

- After a short period at the cyclone stage, IALY weakens into a strong tropical storm. However, it will remain in the annals due to its position very close to the equator at this intensity.

- Having taken a trajectory towards the North, the center of IALY should not come closer than 150km from the African coasts. Peripheral bands of the system begin to touch part of the African coast.

- Moderate rain-stormy and windy degradation is expected in the western periphery of the system on the coastal fringe of Tanzania, Kenya and southern Somalia, as well as waves of 4 to 5 meters on the coasts of Kenya and Somalia. southern Somalia.

- IALY should present a rapid weakening phase in the coming hours, before dissipating definitively tomorrow Wednesday, while remaining offshore. The residual vortex should not be robust enough to resist long enough to cross the equator!

[cycloneye]

MODERATE TROPICAL STORM number 11

(IALY)

Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 75 km/h.

Maximum gusts estimated at sea: 100 km/h.

Estimated pressure at center: 995 hPa.

Position on May 22 at 4 a.m. local time: 3.7 South / 42.0 East.

Distance from the Reunion coast: 2395 km to sector: NORTH-WEST

Distance from Mayotte: 1070 km to sector: NORTH-NORTH-WEST

Travel: NORTH, at 9 km/h.

System information:

- IALY has weakened considerably over the last 6 hours, becoming a moderate tropical storm. However, it will remain in the annals due to its position very close to the equator at this intensity.

- Having taken a trajectory towards the North, the center of IALY should not come closer than 150km from the African coasts. Peripheral bands of the system barely touch part of the African coast.

- Moderate rain-stormy and windy degradation is expected in the western periphery of the system on the coastal fringe of Tanzania, Kenya and southern Somalia, as well as waves of 4 to 5 meters on the coasts of Kenya and Somalia. southern Somalia.

- IALY is experiencing its last moments before dissipating definitively during the morning of this Wednesday, while remaining offshore. The residual vortex should not be robust enough to resist long enough to cross the equator!

[cycloneye]

MODERATE TROPICAL STORM number 11

(IALY)

Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 65 km/h.

Maximum gusts estimated at sea: 95 km/h.

Estimated pressure at center: 999 hPa.

Position on May 22 at 10 a.m. local: 3.1 South / 42.4 East.

Distance from the Reunion coast: 2425 km to sector: NORTH-WEST

Distance from Mayotte: 1120 km to sector: NORTH-NORTH-WEST

Movement: NORTH-NORTH-EAST, at 13 km/h.

System information:

- IALY weakened significantly during the night but continues to remain at the moderate tropical storm stage this morning. Its center remains a little more than 150km from the African coast. It will remain in the annals because of its position very close to the equator at this intensity.

- In the coming hours, IALY should definitely fill up as it gets closer to the equator. The residual vortex should not be robust enough to resist long enough to cross the equator!

- A moderate rain-stormy and windy degradation is underway in the western periphery of the system on the coastal fringe of Tanzania and Kenya and should quickly ease. Waves close to 4 meters will break on the coasts of Kenya and southern Somalia for the next few hours.

[cycloneye]

Is over.

FILLING DEPRESSION number 11

(IALY)

Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 55 km/h.

Maximum gusts estimated at sea: 75 km/h.

Estimated pressure at center: 1002 hPa.

Position on May 22 at 4 p.m. local: 2.9 South / 42.7 East.

Distance from the Reunion coast: 2420 km to sector: NORTH-WEST

Distance from Mayotte: 1140 km to sector: NORTH-NORTH-WEST

Movement: NORTHEAST, at 6 km/h.

System information:

- IALY is no more. The system eventually filled up during the day. The CMRS is therefore stopping the production of regular monitoring for this system.

- IALY will go down in history as the most northerly Tropical Cyclone (4.7°S), beating Fabien last year (5.5°S) and also the latest in the basin (after May 20).