BoB: REMAL - Remnants

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99B INVEST 240521 0000 11.5N 82.0E IO 15 1009

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AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99B) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 12.5N
81.0E, APPROXIMATELY 132 NM SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A HIGHLY BROAD CIRCULATION AREA
OFFSHORE OF CHENNAI, INDIA WITH SPOTTY CONVECTION. A MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATION IS OBSERVED DISPLACED 250 TO 300 NM EAST OF THE SURFACE
CIRCULATION, INDICATING A DISORGANIZED SYSTEM. A 211523Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS
A LARGE ELLIPTICAL AREA OF TURNING WITH AN ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD,
CONSISTING OF LIGHT EASTERLIES TO THE NORTH AND A MONSOONAL WESTERLY WIND
BURST SOUTH OF SRI LANKA WITH 25-30 KT WINDS THAT ARE NOT DIRECTLY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME. CURRENT ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS SHOWS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH WEAK (<15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 99B WILL GET USHERED EASTWARD BY THE WESTERLY WIND
BURST AND THEN HOOK NORTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN BAY OF BENGAL OVER THE
NEXT 72 HOURS, GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATING INTO A MONSOON DEPRESSION. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
LOW.

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THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
14.0N 83.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 86.9E, APPROXIMATELY 360 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF PORT BLAIR. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITES
IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING CIRCULATION AND POORLY
DEFINED LLC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT DUE TO MODERATE (15-20KT) VWS, OFFSET BY GOOD
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (30-31C) SST. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 99B WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN IN THE BAY OF
BENGAL OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO
BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

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THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
17.1N 89.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 89.4E, APPROXIMATELY 327 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KOLKATA, INDIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING AROUND THE EASTERN QUADRANT. A
241959Z ATMS 88.2 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS IMPROVED CONVECTIVE
BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. A 242000Z
BUOY OBSERVATION (23093) INDICATES WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 14 KNOTS
WITH A SLP VALUE OF 995 MB. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, WITH ROBUST EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, WEAK POLEWARD
OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM SST
(30-31 C). GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A NORTHWARD TRACK TOWARD BANGLADESH
WITH STEADY INTENSIFICATION; HOWEVER, GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE ON
DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.

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 https://x.com/DerekOrtt/status/1794184242307489968

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IO, 01, 2024052512, , BEST, 0, 188N, 894E, 35, 993, TS

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/A ... 012024.dat

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[Hurricane2022]

https://i.imgur.com/8JQqpo9.jpeg

Cyclonic Storm REMAL pronounced as RE-MAL

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Bye.