Texas Spring 2024

[South Texas Storms]

Houston area getting the storms now from this morning.

Yep, really hope it's not as damaging as the last storm event here.

It's unbelievable how this pattern keeps repeating. The same hard hit areas keep getting blasted while other areas farther west that still need rain keep missing out. Very frustrating to see time and time again.

[rwfromkansas]

when should we start to have a feel on round 2 this evening? lots of nervous family and coworkers.

The models are not good with these events until a cluster of storms actually form. I would expect the same thing early tomorrow morning similar to this morning. Not sure we will get the same high winds as widespread but expect another round.

Geez, yeah, hopefully the next MCS can just be a nice rainmaker. This morning was a squall line like I recall having more often in KS, with those really intense winds.

[rwfromkansas]

Of course, I am in Lubbock until around 5, and this MCS has significantly changed the forecast and moved storm chances west right over me. I hope we don't get big hail before we leave and can get the car in the garage.

[Anti-freeze]

According to the SPC, out west and the hill country should each get action 2 of Tue-Thu.

[txtwister78]

Further south, it appears our attention will be centered out west later this afternoon as we wait for storms develop across West Central Texas down into the Edwards Plateau region. Whatever develops should make a run for the southern Hill Country perhaps making it as far east into the SA metro later this evening per models before weakening. Latest runs of the HRRR and Texas Tech WRF along with a few others have been hinting at this potential tonight.

The bad news is in terms of widespread rainfall potential for the region, this appears to be setting up as a more localized event tonight over what models had depicted last night when they showed an MCS impacting our area from the north. Hopefully rainfall overperforms. The broken record of much needed rain across this region continues.

[Gotwood]

Over 1 million people without power state wide.

[Texas Snowman]

 https://x.com/nickkrasz_wx/status/1795494916380127386

[WeatherNewbie]

storms popping off in dallas again.

[jasons2k]

Hot off the presses from Jeff:

Strong to severe line of thunderstorms has moved into the Gulf of Mexico.

This line of storms has “worked over” the local air mass over much of the area and removed the extreme amounts of instability that were in place this morning. While additional upstream disturbances in the developing northwesterly flow aloft will move into portions of Texas over the next 24 hours, current thunderstorms developing over west Texas are likely to weaken as they approach/move into SE TX late tonight (midnight to 600am). Severe weather chances for late tonight have been greatly reduced and SPC has lower the risk level to a 1 out of 5 for parts of the area.

Air mass will recover going into Wednesday with returning southerly winds and increasing humidity off the Gulf of Mexico. Additional disturbances will approach from the northwest into late Wednesday and Thursday/Friday and rounds or complexes of thunderstorms will be capable of moving into the area. There is no particular time period that stands out right now for an increased severe weather risk, will have to monitor daily trends and upstream convective organization to determine severe threats about 24 hours out.

Jeff Lindner
Director Hydrologic Operations Division/Meteorologist
Harris County Flood Control District
9900 Northwest Freeway | Houston, Texas 77092
346-286-4000 (main) | 346-286-4165 (direct) | 281-924-2091 (cell)
jeff.lindner@hcfcd.org | Twitter: @jefflindner1

[Iceresistance]

I had a little bit of rain today

Sorry for inactivity here, Summer College School

[jasons2k]

Today’s storms brought me 2.09” of rain and the most storm damage I’ve ever gotten at my house. A section of fence blew over and lots of patio items strewn about.

[Anti-freeze]

Tor warn southwest of Iraan
(Iraan so far away)

[Texas Snowman]

 https://x.com/rickmitchellwx/status/1795551796263555318

[cstrunk]

Someone said it earlier... but welcome to MCS season. Keep the rain coming... but wish the severe stuff would knock it off a bit...

[txtwister78]

 https://x.com/NWSWPC/status/1795588894505017423

[bubba hotep]

Evening update from FWD:

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
757 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Wednesday Afternoon/

A brief lull in activity is underway across North and Central
Texas after busy 24 hours. Enjoy this peaceful weather as this
will once again be changing in the coming hours.

Another shortwave is inching its way closer to our region with
clusters of thunderstorms currently spanning from southeastern
Colorado through central Coahuila MX. These clusters are now
gradually making their way east and should arrive within our area
in the next few hours.

There remains some uncertainty in the eastward extent each
cluster of thunderstorms will reach as we have not fully recovered
from today's rounds of thunderstorms. The storms currently near
Childress are moving into a more stable environment that lacks
appreciable low-level moisture. The expectation is that these
storms continue moving eastward and should remain sub-severe.
Can't rule out some small hail and gusty winds. The other cluster
of storms is currently across northern Oklahoma and will begin
taking southeastward dive in the next few hours. Depending on the
evolution of the complex before it, the second will also provide
another opportunity for thunderstorms closer to sunrise tomorrow
morning. The morning round of thunderstorms may have a bit more
instability to work with as the main shortwave moves overhead with
slightly steeper mid-level lapse rates in place.

Comparing tomorrow's environment with what we experienced this
morning, the atmosphere will have about half the instability to
work with leading up to sunrise tomorrow. Additionally, shear
parameters are likely to remain much lower compared to this
morning. A repeat of of this morning is not expected, however, a
stormy morning rush hour will be possible if the storms in the
Panhandle congeal into an MCS and survive the 300 mile trip.

Tomorrow's forecast remains a bit tricky given the uncertainties
tonight. With northwesterly flow aloft and additional disturbances
moving overhead, there will be continued rain chances through much
of the day. Although the severe weather potential is expected to
be low, lapse rates will continue to remain fairly steep,
therefore, a strong to isolated severe storms cannot be ruled out
tomorrow. All storms are expected to remain elevated keeping the
main threats to small hail and gusty winds.

[Cpv17]

Houston area getting the storms now from this morning.

Yep, really hope it's not as damaging as the last storm event here.

It's unbelievable how this pattern keeps repeating. The same hard hit areas keep getting blasted while other areas farther west that still need rain keep missing out. Very frustrating to see time and time again.

Wharton/El Campo area missed out on most of the action again. I got a few drops and that was it.

[Bhow]

Another rain bust coming for the Austin/San Antonio corridor. Mother Nature realized the cap wouldn’t hold so she decided to throw her second best pitch at us - the dreaded outflow boundary

[txtwister78]

Nice complex of scattered storms beginning to move into South Central Texas. So far, they're behaving but a welcome sight for many across the region tonight.

[South Texas Storms]

Houston area getting the storms now from this morning.

Yep, really hope it's not as damaging as the last storm event here.

It's unbelievable how this pattern keeps repeating. The same hard hit areas keep getting blasted while other areas farther west that still need rain keep missing out. Very frustrating to see time and time again.

Wharton/El Campo area missed out on most of the action again. I got a few drops and that was it.

Meanwhile in northwest Houston we got blasted again this afternoon. Second time we've lost power for more than 6 hours in the past 2 weeks. So tired of this.