Texas Spring 2024

[snownado]

BTW, very impressive-looking MCV tied with this activity.

[Texas Snowman]

As a reminder, we’re closing in on June 1st this weekend and the meteorological start of summer.

Here’s the Texas Summer 2024 thread: https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=24&t=124056

Next stop, Texas Fall 2024!

[HockeyTx82]

Did we not have this kind of season last year? Or the past few years?

[cheezyWXguy]

First round is sub-severe, but has turned into a heavy rain threat for the NE. DFW suburbs, with a flash flood warning in effect for portions of Collin / Denton County.

Will have to watch the evolution of that 2nd line of storms to the SW of Wichita Fallas for this afternoon though, for severe activity. 

EDIT: And now a Flood Warning as well for Dallas County.

Those storms have been struggling to keep up with the outflow boundary most of the morning, although that could change with more heating and inflow from the south. I’m still thinking the overnight complex is the one to watch for severe weather. HRRR has gotten more aggressive with pre-storm recovery in recent runs, with an uncapped cape value of 4000j/kg just before arrival around 2am.

[bubba hotep]

Did we not have this kind of season last year? Or the past few years?

IIRC, we had really bad timing on MCS's approach last season. Many of them moved in during the early morning hours and decayed as they moved through DFW.

[snownado]

Did we not have this kind of season last year? Or the past few years?

On a related note though, I will emphasize that "Sunmer" didn't really kick into gear in 2023 until the last week of June. It was pretty active severe weather-wise up until that point.

I mention this also to make the point that I wouldn't assume this Summer won't still end up being a scorcher simply because we're wet/stormy now.

[snownado]

Did we not have this kind of season last year? Or the past few years?

IIRC, we had really bad timing on MCS's approach last season. Many of them moved in during the early morning hours and decayed as they moved through DFW.

I'm pretty sure that was 2021 (walthough we were also drenched with rain)

2023 was the year of what seemed to be daily Gorrila hail occurences.

[txtwister78]

Latest HRRR along with current trends on radar suggest late tonight into the very early morning hours of Friday could be active across the southern Hill Country into portions of South-Central Texas. Appears the 12z run of 3km NAM may have some merit. Slight risk was just expanded further south to include the SA metro,

[Ntxw]

Did we not have this kind of season last year? Or the past few years?

Not really, the past two Mays have been dominated by heat ridges, we got rain but they were not because of this 5h configuration. This is something like 1973 and 2007 where the rainy troughs should've been the prior year with the Nino, but delayed ENSO atmospheric response made the following year wet during the La Nina flip.

[rwfromkansas]

Looks like Denton and Collin will jackpot again with the next line. Big gap that will impact my area and lower totals unless it fills in, which it might. The line was better looking for me an hour ago.

[Ntxw]

Looks like Denton and Collin will jackpot again with the next line. Big gap that will impact my area and lower totals unless it fills in, which it might. The line was better looking for me an hour ago.

Those are good for watershed runoff to the lakes! Earlier this Spring it was the southern sector which didn't help that much with water supply for us.

[bubba hotep]

Latest HRRR along with current trends on radar suggest late tonight into the very early morning hours of Friday could be active across the southern Hill Country into portions of South-Central Texas. Appears the 12z run of 3km NAM may have some merit. Slight risk was just expanded further south to include the SA metro,

Watch coming for folks down that way.



Mesoscale Discussion 1078
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

Areas affected...portions of western and central Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 301750Z - 301945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms organizing into a line or bow are expected
to develop and shift south/southeast through early evening. Damaging
gusts and large hail will be possible with this activity.

DISCUSSION...Convection is developing along an outflow boundary
stretching across the Texas South Plains into north-central Texas.
This boundary is being reinforced and shunted southward from ongoing
convection over northwest Texas. Low-level flow ahead of the outflow
is not overly strong at only about 10 kt from the south/southeast.
As a result, the outflow may continue to shift south through the
afternoon. This is resulting in some uncertainty, as outflow may
outpace developing convection along the boundary. CAMs guidance
differs in the evolution of the boundary and convection tied to it.
Nevertheless, a moist and very unstable airmass is in place
downstream. Vertical shear will also increase modestly through the
afternoon. As a result, severe thunderstorm potential from a
developing bowing line of storms is present. Severe gusts to 80 mph
and isolated large hail will be possible should a well-organized,
southward-propagating band of storms develop. Trends will be
monitored and a watch will likely be needed this afternoon, though
timing is a bit uncertain.

..Leitman/Guyer.. 05/30/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF...

[snownado]

Another estimated 3-4" of rain fell with the most recent round of storms part of DFW, with more storms moving in shortly.

I suppose flooding is better than a repeat of Tuesday morning, if a poison had to be picked.

[snownado]

Looks like Denton and Collin will jackpot again with the next line. Big gap that will impact my area and lower totals unless it fills in, which it might. The line was better looking for me an hour ago.

Line's looking more organized now, as it taps into the 2000-3000 J/KG of MUCAPE.

Still elevated and mostly a heavy rain threat though.

[bubba hotep]

Another estimated 3-4" of rain fell with the most recent round of storms part of DFW, with more storms moving in shortly.

I suppose flooding is better than a repeat of Tuesday morning, if a poison had to be picked.

We have been getting hammered here in Southern Collin County!

[snownado]

Another estimated 3-4" of rain fell with the most recent round of storms part of DFW, with more storms moving in shortly.

I suppose flooding is better than a repeat of Tuesday morning, if a poison had to be picked.

We have been getting hammered here in Southern Collin County!

Between today (so far) and Tuesday, we've picked up over 5" of rain.

We're kind of making up lost ground another being grazed by the really heavty duty rains that Dallas County got earlier this Spring.

[snownado]

Flood Watch has just been issued for all eveyone along/north of I-20 in North Texas until 7pm Friday.

[rwfromkansas]

This is why I put my caveat....line is stronger, gap less and much more organized. Looking outside, those clouds are SCARY looking for not being severe. Has to be one of the most freaky looking lines I've seen in awhile for not bringing lots of wind with it.

[snownado]

That cell in Dallas County is now severe warned.

[bubba hotep]

Flood Watch has just been issued for all eveyone along/north of I-20 in North Texas until 7pm Friday.

Yep, HRRR has been trending towards sending another powerful system through NTX late tonight.