2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

[jlauderdal]

 https://x.com/cyclonicwx/status/1796691168350077242

here come the season cancel posts towards the end of june

[IcyTundra]

June CANSIPS just came out. The La Nina is stronger this run as well as slightly warmer SST anomalies in the Atlantic. Not much of a recurve signature for August-September-October.

[Teban54]

 https://twitter.com/KacperWx/status/1796543804599840784

[DorkyMcDorkface]

June CANSIPS just came out. The La Nina is stronger this run as well as slightly warmer SST anomalies in the Atlantic. Not much of a recurve signature for August-September-October.

I honestly thought it couldn't possibly get any more favorable looking than last month's run but I guess I was wrong.

[zzzh]

Upper level winds look very favorable for MDR/Caribbean development later this month according to Cansips.

[chaser1]

A silver lining? Looking at the latest CanSIPS, one "could" at least make an argument that the Northern GOM & Florida might appear to be a tad better protected by higher/stronger trending 200 mb anomolous winds forecast during peak months.

[Category5Kaiju]

A silver lining? Looking at the latest CanSIPS, one "could" at least make an argument that the Northern GOM & Florida might appear to be a tad better protected by higher/stronger trending 200 mb anomolous winds forecast during peak months.

The interesting thing though is if anything, the precip map trended wetter for Florida and the northern Gulf, so one might imagine that that indicates more possible TC activity forecast in that region. Mind you, this is also over the average span of 3 months. Things could look quite different if one were to look at the scale of a single month.

So, my point is….I don’t know! It’s definitely fun to speculate at this point in time, but I don’t know if we have enough concrete info at this point in time to make conclusions on which areas will be under fire and which areas will be safe this season.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/EricBlake12/status/1796884766614040615

[chaser1]

A silver lining? Looking at the latest CanSIPS, one "could" at least make an argument that the Northern GOM & Florida might appear to be a tad better protected by higher/stronger trending 200 mb anomolous winds forecast during peak months.

The interesting thing though is if anything, the precip map trended wetter for Florida and the northern Gulf, so one might imagine that that indicates more possible TC activity forecast in that region. Mind you, this is also over the average span of 3 months. Things could look quite different if one were to look at the scale of a single month.

So, my point is….I don’t know! It’s definitely fun to speculate at this point in time, but I don’t know if we have enough concrete info at this point in time to make conclusions on which areas will be under fire and which areas will be safe this season.

[Deshaunrob17]

The CANSIP has the warm pool in the East Pac disappearing. Interesting.The warmth in the Caribbean is absolutely nuts!

[chaser1]

A silver lining? Looking at the latest CanSIPS, one "could" at least make an argument that the Northern GOM & Florida might appear to be a tad better protected by higher/stronger trending 200 mb anomolous winds forecast during peak months.

The interesting thing though is if anything, the precip map trended wetter for Florida and the northern Gulf, so one might imagine that that indicates more possible TC activity forecast in that region. Mind you, this is also over the average span of 3 months. Things could look quite different if one were to look at the scale of a single month.

So, my point is….I don’t know! It’s definitely fun to speculate at this point in time, but I don’t know if we have enough concrete info at this point in time to make conclusions on which areas will be under fire and which areas will be safe this season.

You make a couple of very good points however I do have a different perspective regarding one of them. I absolutely concur that in spite of what would appear as an increase in upper 200mb winds over Florida and the N. Gulf, this is a broader forecast look at the upper-level wind forecast anomaly for a 90 days period and of course cannot be viewed to determine short term conditions over a period of just a few days when a hurricane could be in a position to threaten the region. Furthermore, it could be reflective of an expanding upper-level anticyclone associated with an approaching storm interacting with mid-summer westerlies still present dipping south from the mid-Atlantic seaboard extending over N. Florida. It is in that vein that if I were to try and extrapolate the increasingly wetter forecast map while also taking the stronger broad term upper level winds forecast into account, it would suggest to me a rough delineation (or latitude) where some storms may well track and where upper level shear might begin to inhibit strengthening (or cause weakening), but also potentially enhance rainfall further south due to what could be a rich east to southeast deep layer feed caused by west tracking storms (potentially) over Southernmost Florida, the Keys, and Cuba. I could see a stark precip gradient set up along points further north due to the resultant upper-level convergent conditions as a result as well. Sure, that's an awful lot of projected extrapolations given nothing more than some long range "90- day" period anomaly forecasts . Besides, all of that doesn't begin to address the much broader picture and what I think is suggests the bigger threat to Central America and Mexico (and maybe Texas coastline). Further east developing storms may pose just as much threat to the E. Caribbean as well. On that point, it's just impossible to guess where upper-level conditions or SAL might inhibit significant strengthening and where that "sweet spot" will occur for most storms.

[Category5Kaiju]

The interesting thing though is if anything, the precip map trended wetter for Florida and the northern Gulf, so one might imagine that that indicates more possible TC activity forecast in that region. Mind you, this is also over the average span of 3 months. Things could look quite different if one were to look at the scale of a single month.

So, my point is….I don’t know! It’s definitely fun to speculate at this point in time, but I don’t know if we have enough concrete info at this point in time to make conclusions on which areas will be under fire and which areas will be safe this season.

You make a couple of very good points however I do have a different perspective regarding one of them. I absolutely concur that in spite of what would appear as an increase in upper 200mb winds over Florida and the N. Gulf, this is a broader forecast look at the upper-level wind forecast anomaly for a 90 days period and of course cannot be viewed to determine short term conditions over a period of just a few days when a hurricane could be in a position to threaten the region. Furthermore, it could be reflective of an expanding upper-level anticyclone associated with an approaching storm interacting with mid-summer westerlies still present dipping south from the mid-Atlantic seaboard extending over N. Florida. It is in that vein that if I were to try and extrapolate the increasingly wetter forecast map while also taking the stronger broad term upper level winds forecast into account, it would suggest to me a rough delineation (or latitude) where some storms may well track and where upper level shear might begin to inhibit strengthening (or cause weakening), but also potentially enhance rainfall further south due to what could be a rich east to southeast deep layer feed caused by west tracking storms (potentially) over Southernmost Florida, the Keys, and Cuba. I could see a stark precip gradient set up along points further north due to the resultant upper-level convergent conditions as a result as well. Sure, that's an awful lot of projected extrapolations given nothing more than some long range "90- day" period anomaly forecasts . Besides, all of that doesn't begin to address the much broader picture and what I think is suggests the bigger threat to Central America and Mexico (and maybe Texas coastline). Further east developing storms may pose just as much threat to the E. Caribbean as well. On that point, it's just impossible to guess where upper-level conditions or SAL might inhibit significant strengthening and where that "sweet spot" will occur for most storms.

Oh for sure! You make some good point there too. Generally speaking though, I think given the precip anomalies it looks like there's going to be a much greater risk for land this year compared to many of our past seasons imho. Everything just seems to be concentrated and pointed westward. We better enjoy the quiet now, because I don't know if we'll have this luxury soon.

[TheWisestofAll]

A silver lining? Looking at the latest CanSIPS, one "could" at least make an argument that the Northern GOM & Florida might appear to be a tad better protected by higher/stronger trending 200 mb anomolous winds forecast during peak months.

I think it was suggested a while back that rather than simply being elevated shear, that's the CanSIPS modeling the anomalous amounts of outflow coming off the storms in the tropics.

[LarryWx]

 https://x.com/EricBlake12/status/1796884766614040615

The extreme warmth at Key West on Eric’s 5/30/2024 centered map is verified based on the buoy data:

Key West buoy May of 2024 SST peaked way up at 33.5C/92.3F on 5/29/24! Records go back to 2005. The previous May’s hottest was 32.3C/90.1F (2023).

May hottest KW SST
24: 33.5C/92.3F hottest

23: 32.3C/90.1F 2nd hottest

22: 30.7C/87.3F

21: 31.4C/88.5F

20: 30.3C/86.5F 3rd coolest

19: 31.5C/88.7F 4th hottest

18: N/A

17: 31.7C/89.1F 3rd hottest

16: 30.9C/87.6F

15: 31.4C/88.5F

14: 29.7C/85.5F 2nd coolest

13: 30.7C/87.3F

12: 31.1C/88.0F

11: 30.5C/86.9F

10: 31.2C/88.2F

09: 30.8C/87.4F

08: 31.2C/88.2F

07: 29.0C/84.2F coolest

06: 30.8C/87.4F

05: 30.8C/87.4F



05-22 May avg hottest 30.8C/87.4F

For the period 2005-12, the hottest KW SST was 33.6C (in July). Compare that to the 33.5C of 5/29/24!

[toad strangler]

Not an indicator post but probably the best place for this bit of information as the Atlantic Basin season kicks off? Please move if necessary.

 https://twitter.com/drkimwood/status/1796932657978495199

[cycloneye]

He says, not so fast on the Atlantic sprint.

 https://x.com/DerekOrtt/status/1796917072754094254

[Cpv17]

With the subtropics warming so much lately, that could possibly mean more recurves, right?

[Category5Kaiju]

With the subtropics warming so much lately, that could possibly mean more recurves, right?

I didn't understand warm subtropics as being indicative of storm tracks? 2017 had relatively warm subtropics and was a heavy landfall year, while last year had a much warmer deep tropics than subtropics and featured very little land impacts.

Generally speaking, ENSO state is an better indication of storm tracks, with El Ninos favoring OTS storms and weak-moderate La Ninas favoring land-impacting tracks. Even then, exact specifics on steering during peak season can't really be determined this far out in time.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1796970067332321295

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/webberweather/status/1796970046171893855