Texas Summer 2024

[mmmmsnouts]

It's also crazy because no models picked up on this activity and there was only a 20% chance of precip as of this morning.

Every forecast that comes out in this pattern might as well just be a shrug emoji.

[Ntxw]

Lake Worth went from 60 percent to 100 percent full in a week...maybe from Eagle Mountain being full?

Many rivers and flood plains are above their limits, the flooding will continue for weeks.

[snownado]

It's also crazy because no models picked up on this activity and there was only a 20% chance of precip as of this morning.

Every forecast that comes out in this pattern might as well just be a shrug emoji.

Not to toot my own horn, but at least I called it right...

[snownado]

Even parts of Louisiana/ Arkansas that weren't even under the SPC outlook for severe weather are now under a Severe Thunderstorm Watch...

[opticsguy]

18Z TAFS from Tyler KTYR was cloudy until tomorrow morning. Now monster storms are moving in.

[mmmmsnouts]

DFW finished at 1.47” yesterday and they’re at 0.63” for today. In two days DFW has received more rain than it did in June, July, August, and September 2023 combined.

[gpsnowman]

DFW finished at 1.47” yesterday and they’re at 0.63” for today. In two days DFW has received more rain than it did in June, July, August, and September 2023 combined.

That's incredible. I hope to never experience a 2023 summer again.

[mmmmsnouts]

DFW finished at 1.47” yesterday and they’re at 0.63” for today. In two days DFW has received more rain than it did in June, July, August, and September 2023 combined.

That's incredible. I hope to never experience a 2023 summer again.

Last summer it seemed like every MCS or outflow storm that would head in the direction of the airport would fall apart right at the edge of the property. I think DFW probably had the lowest rain total of any measuring location in the area.

[snownado]

SPC seems fairly bullish on yet another round of strong/severe t'storms for DFW during peak heating today.

It's definitely plausible with the outflow boundary from today's activity in the vicnity place, negligble capping and possibly another MCV from the storms in KS passing by, although the CAMs are still completely clueless with handling this potential right now.

If they do in fact develop, today could arguably feature more intense storms with a more pristine EML.

[snownado]

DFW finished at 1.47” yesterday and they’re at 0.63” for today. In two days DFW has received more rain than it did in June, July, August, and September 2023 combined.

That's incredible. I hope to never experience a 2023 summer again.

Last summer it seemed like every MCS or outflow storm that would head in the direction of the airport would fall apart right at the edge of the property. I think DFW probably had the lowest rain total of any measuring location in the area.

Laat Summer was weird in a number of ways.

As we know, DFW is huge and I did observe multiple events where it would be going to pound town on one end of the Airport, but not where the actual observation site is located (far NE side of the airport). I was ok with this though because it did help to get DFW across the finish line with achieving/breaking some futility records.

Also, the heat was so intense last year during July - September that there were also multiple instances where the rain from t'storms that did develop would practically evaporate as it fell from the clouds (almost desert-like), thus being a lot more bark on radar precipitation-wise than bite.

[snownado]

DFW finished at 1.47” yesterday and they’re at 0.63” for today. In two days DFW has received more rain than it did in June, July, August, and September 2023 combined.

That's incredible. I hope to never experience a 2023 summer again.

2022 wasn't much different in effect, although you couldn't tell this in hindsight on paper because of that fluke single-day deluge on 8/14 that completely wiped out the deficit & extreme drought conditions (as well as also cancelling the remainder of Summer temp-wise).

[Iceresistance]

Currently under a thunderstorm watch

[snownado]

For DFW this afternoon, will have to closely watch that Outflow Boundary pushing towards the Red River.

There's still some residual (weak) capping, but it's eroding rapidly with the low clouds having scattered out and strong heating underway.

Also, seeing some very impressive low level convergence as it will run up against a modest 20-25kt LLJ.

It can go a number of ways, either new storms develop or the currently elevated line becomes surface-based and reintensifies.

[Brent]

No severe weather here but we had another deluge during lunch

[cstrunk]

It's mid-afternoon, there's a MCS diving SE from Oklahoma into huge CAPE (4000-6000 J/kg), mid-upper 70's dew points, adequate bulk shear (35-40 knots), 100-200 m2/s2 helicity, and yet it's not severe. What's holding it back?

[snownado]

It's mid-afternoon, there's a MCS diving SE from Oklahoma into huge CAPE (4000-6000 J/kg), mid-upper 70's dew points, adequate bulk shear (35-40 knots), 100-200 m2/s2 helicity, and yet it's not severe. What's holding it back?

The storms themselves have been post-outflow all day (elevated), although the cells billowing now in Collin County are looking more beefy.

[ElectricStorm]

 https://x.com/NWSNorman/status/1797625148843209059




State record for the year is 149 in 2019. 100 would be 8th, right behind 1982 at 101 and 2010 at 103.

If summer remains active this could be an all time year for OK. And to think it could have been even worse if 5/6 and 5/25 didn't vastly underperform

[snownado]

Oddly enough, have yet to hear a single rumble of thunder or see a lightning flash here, but definitely getting some torrential downpours.

EDIT: There goes the loud crack of thunder...

[snownado]

Flood Advisory in effect for Collin and Dallas Counties until 8pm.

[snownado]

The OFB may have run its course, as the storms are now taking on more of a ENE motion.

EDIT: Upgraded to Flash Flood Warning now.