2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[wxman57]

Looking at today's 12Z GFS, I see a vorticity max over the East Pacific that the GFS takes north into the western Caribbean then off the SE U.S. Coast next Thursday, where it develops into a frontal low. Other models keep all energy in the East Pacific. I'm not inclined to believe the GFS.

The GFS was at least good sniffing out the non-tropical low that developed and went over Hispaniola and now east of Bahamas. Although it did try on earlier runs making it somewhat tropical, but it was still 7 days out showing increased moisture in the Caribbean and impacting Hispaniola.

Point is, I’ll give it some credit and worth in thinking that we could see some increased moisture moving up from Yucatán.West Caribbean and increasing rain chances through south Florida. Will we see a hurricane though? Highly unlikely.

Other models identified the weak, non-tropical low as well. Only the GFS predicted a tropical storm or hurricane.

[Stratton23]

Regardless of what ever happens with this, im expecting activity to really start picking up after the 13th, wind shear goes below average in the entire caribbean, MJO passage, ensembles definitely show things perking up around that time and beyond, its coming

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/RaleighWx/status/1797713400837083194

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/TylerJStanfield/status/1797725925951594913

[DorkyMcDorkface]

 https://twitter.com/DCAreaWx/status/1797744778911854880



 https://twitter.com/DCAreaWx/status/1797746252198883774

[Stratton23]

Regardless if the GFS ends up being right or wrong, models are in good agreement that the CAG is about to become pretty active, especially once we get past the 13th of june

[skyline385]

Not that I take the GFS past 120 hours seriously but it is interesting that it has systems in similar locations to the EPS. Regardless of something forming or not, the NATL seems like its ready to go with activity gradually increasing on all models.

[kevin]

06z GFS shows a TS near Florida on June 11/12 forming from the disturbance crossing over from the Pacific on June 9/10.

Edit: deepens to 992 mb as it moves away from Florida.

[kevin]

00z GEM/CMC also showed this disturbance as a TD/TS as it passes over Florida.

[N2FSU]

12z GFS for next Thursday night



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[StPeteMike]

12z has a strong TS going into the Big Bend area, though most of the precipitation is right heavy and helps the Peninsula with its drought a little. But that’s not all, it has another TS about 7 days out impacting almost identical location

[N2FSU]

lala land


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[wxman57]

12Z GFS remains all alone in its prediction of a hurricane in the Gulf next week. Nothing significant in the EC, ICON, or CMC. Don't believe it. It may have the general idea of increasing moisture, but that's as far as I'd believe.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

12Z GFS remains all alone in its prediction of a hurricane in the Gulf next week. Nothing significant in the EC, ICON, or CMC. Don't believe it. It may have the general idea of increasing moisture, but that's as far as I'd believe.

I still think it is reasonable to anticipate some form of TCG in the Caribbean/Gulf soon. The MJO should be in an optimal phase by next week, and that could very well provide a window for potential development. The GFS isn't the most reliable model around this time of year given its known biases, but given the situation it wouldn't surprise me at all to see some of the other guidance follow suit. As someone highlighted earlier, last night's 00z CMC run actually had development, although the 12z appears to have dropped it.

[HurricaneBelle]

the GFS truck is down my block, I should have the new model run soon

[jlauderdal]

the GFS truck is down my block, I should have the new model run soon https://i.ytimg.com/vi/t5Yynd2qN1I/maxresdefault.jpg

That is avatar material with a 384h underneath

[Stratton23]

18z GFS shifted west by a decent margin, still likes the idea of this thing developing, also looks like the 500 mb height pattern is different on this run, allowing for a “ landfall” if you will, more towards pensacola, florida, wouldn’t be shocked to see guidance start to follow the GFS, NOAA has even acknowledged the GFS, by highlighting a hatched zone of potential tropical development in their global outlook, so it cant be dismissed entirely

[skyline385]

GEFS just gave up, all over the place would be an understatement

[jlauderdal]

GEFS just gave up, all over the place would be an understatement

https://i.postimg.cc/wjDR6Y8Q/gfs-ememb-lowlocs-watl-fh180-360.gif

Typical early season slopfest

[Stratton23]

Because this is of a CAG origin, it is going to be a sloppy system, but thats also why you see ensemble members all over the place, where does a low pressure try to form? The western caribbean/ yucatan channel or the bay of campache?