2024 ENSO Updates

[cycloneye]

June ECMWF has Cool Neutral to Weak La Niña for ASO and that is a little bit warmer than the may run.

[JetFuel_SE]

June ECMWF has Cool Neutral to Weak La Niña for ASO and that is a little bit warmer than the may run.

https://i.imgur.com/ov7vq0u.png

And since it's the Euro, you subtract about 0.5C from whatever it shows.
Much more accurate that way.

[Kingarabian]

June ECMWF has Cool Neutral to Weak La Niña for ASO and that is a little bit warmer than the may run.

https://i.imgur.com/ov7vq0u.png

30 day SOI for May says this is a much safer bet for ASO.

[cycloneye]

June ECMWF has Cool Neutral to Weak La Niña for ASO and that is a little bit warmer than the may run.

https://i.imgur.com/ov7vq0u.png

30 day SOI for May says this is a much safer bet for ASO.

Looks like a slower transition to - ENSO than was expected a few months ago, and also, La Niña is looking to not be very strong.

[Ntxw]

June ECMWF has Cool Neutral to Weak La Niña for ASO and that is a little bit warmer than the may run.

https://i.imgur.com/ov7vq0u.png

30 day SOI for May says this is a much safer bet for ASO.

Looks like a slower transition to - ENSO than was expected a few months ago, and also, La Niña is looking to not be very strong.

This is kind of what I was mentioning some months ago. The ocean is so much warmer at the base state in the ENSO regions, so to get a truly really cold, deep Nina, it's quite a climb because it's starting so high already with overall oceanic warmth. But the atmosphere will be easier because of the warmth in the high latitudes and SSTa. But we don't yet know how direct this will be, because the gradient between cold/warm was much more in the past than it is now.

If you ignore anomalies for a second, Nino 3.4 actual water temp is 28.25C for May! Even weak Ninas have started cooler than this. This isn't a jab at the potential, just shows how warm the water is around the globe.

[cycloneye]

Interesting this development that is going on with the 30 day SOI index that is crashing fast.

https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/

[cycloneye]

PAGASA announces that El NIño ends.

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/2024/6/7/ ... agasa-1017

[cycloneye]

There are -6C readings beneath the surface that eventually will go up to the surface and help La Niña to shine.

[LarryWx]

June ECMWF has Cool Neutral to Weak La Niña for ASO and that is a little bit warmer than the may run.

https://i.imgur.com/ov7vq0u.png

OND: June Euro prog for ONI/actual ONI/actual RONI:
’23 +2.04/+1.92/+1.49

’22 -0.25/-0.92/-1.03

’21 -0.30/-0.98/-1.21

’20 -0.49/-1.27/-1.52

’19 +0.67/+0.51/+0.24

‘18 +1.1/+0.9/+0.8

’17 +0.4/-0.8/-1.1

‘16 -0.4/-0.7/-1.1

’15 +2.4/+2.6/+2.3

’14 +1.3/+0.6/+0.5

’13 +0.6/-0.2/-0.2

‘12 +1.2/+0.1/-0.1

*’11 +0.1/-1.0/-0.9

*’10 -1.0/-1.6/-1.7

*’09 +1.3/+1.0/+0.9

*’08 +0.3/-0.4/-0.4

*’07 -1.1/-1.3/-1.3

AVG +0.5/-0.1/-0.3


Analysis:
- The June Euro avg miss for ONI was 0.6 to warm.

- The June Euro missed too warm 16 of 17 years!

- When there was no El Niño, the June Euro prog for OND ONI missed on avg too warm by 0.7.

- When there was El Niño, it missed on avg only by +0.2.

- Out of 17, biggest misses were +1.2 (‘17) and +1.1 (‘12 and ‘11)

- June Euro is progging SON/OND at -0.3 (vs -0.5 in May).

- Based on avg miss of +0.7 for non-Nino, the bias corrected (bc) June Euro prog for OND ONI is -1.0. Based on largest miss of +1.2, OND ONI could end up as low as -1.5. Based on smallest miss for non-Nino of +0.2, OND ONI could end up as high as -0.5.

- Based on the assumption that RONI, which in MAM was 0.64 cooler than ONI and has been at least 0.4 cooler than ONI for a year, will be at least 0.4 cooler than ONI in OND, this implies that bc June Euro OND RONI prog is for -1.4 or cooler.

*SON instead of OND (OND N/A)



Sources:

Euro progs https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/ ... -sst_table



Actual ONI: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indi ... .ascii.txt



Actual RONI: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indi ... .ascii.txt

[Category5Kaiju]

June ECMWF has Cool Neutral to Weak La Niña for ASO and that is a little bit warmer than the may run.

https://i.imgur.com/ov7vq0u.png

30 day SOI for May says this is a much safer bet for ASO.

Looks like a slower transition to - ENSO than was expected a few months ago, and also, La Niña is looking to not be very strong.

I think Larrywx did a pretty good and detailed analysis on this before, but if these models are forecasting a weaker La Nina and a slower transition, then that isn't very encouraging news, at least on the Atlantic front. Having a La Nina that is somewhat weak and not very strong has tended to historically be associated with more land impacts, particularly CONUS.

[cycloneye]

CPC weekly update has niño 3.4 at +0.1C. A reminder that next thursday is the June update from CPC, when they could announce the end of el niño.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf

[Ntxw]

ACE year to date has been down globally. SHEM had below normal season. Would have thought the SPAC to produce more given the Nino during their season.

[Kingarabian]

ACE year to date has been down globally. SHEM had below normal season. Would have thought the SPAC to produce more given the Nino during their season.

Atypical for El Nino sure. WPAC and SHEM were let downs.

[Kingarabian]

SOI will rise once the MJO returns back from space.

[cycloneye]

CPC ends El NIño and has 65% of La NIña for JAS.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... disc.shtml

 https://x.com/NWSCPC/status/1801238092617335117

[cycloneye]

Here is the ENSO Blog, where they discusss about how strong may be La Niña.

First things first, let’s acknowledge that there have only been 10 times in the historical record where ENSO flipped from El Niño into La Niña within a year. That’s not enough examples to draw any solid conclusions from. Still, it’s interesting to look at what we have and speculate as to what it might mean, so that’s all I am doing here.

Each line on the graph above represents a year in which the tropical Pacific shifted from El Niño to La Niña with no neutral winter in between. The lines are colored based on the strength of the El Niño: red for strong events (peak Niño 3.4-region sea surface temperature anomalies above 1.5 ˚C, or 2.7 ˚F), orange for moderate events (peak anomaly between 1 and 1.5 ˚C, or 1.8-2.7 ˚F), and pink for weak events (peak anomaly less than 1 ˚C, or 1.8 ˚F).

The relationship between the strength of the El Niño and the strength of the subsequent La Niña is kinda messy. It’s unlikely, but not impossible, for weak and moderate El Niños to lead to a strong La Niña (Niño 3.4 temperature anomaly of more than 1.5 ˚C below average). Only one of the pink and orange lines gets below that threshold. Meanwhile, 4 of the 6 strong El Niños do evolve into strong La Niñas. But before we put too much stock in that pattern, we should note that the strongest El Niño of all (top red line at the left hand side of the graph) wound up developing into the weakest La Niña (3). So…yeah. It’s complicated.

[Ntxw]

Here is the ENSO Blog, where they discusss about how strong may be La Niña.

First things first, let’s acknowledge that there have only been 10 times in the historical record where ENSO flipped from El Niño into La Niña within a year. That’s not enough examples to draw any solid conclusions from. Still, it’s interesting to look at what we have and speculate as to what it might mean, so that’s all I am doing here.

Each line on the graph above represents a year in which the tropical Pacific shifted from El Niño to La Niña with no neutral winter in between. The lines are colored based on the strength of the El Niño: red for strong events (peak Niño 3.4-region sea surface temperature anomalies above 1.5 ˚C, or 2.7 ˚F), orange for moderate events (peak anomaly between 1 and 1.5 ˚C, or 1.8-2.7 ˚F), and pink for weak events (peak anomaly less than 1 ˚C, or 1.8 ˚F).

The relationship between the strength of the El Niño and the strength of the subsequent La Niña is kinda messy. It’s unlikely, but not impossible, for weak and moderate El Niños to lead to a strong La Niña (Niño 3.4 temperature anomaly of more than 1.5 ˚C below average). Only one of the pink and orange lines gets below that threshold. Meanwhile, 4 of the 6 strong El Niños do evolve into strong La Niñas. But before we put too much stock in that pattern, we should note that the strongest El Niño of all (top red line at the left hand side of the graph) wound up developing into the weakest La Niña (3). So…yeah. It’s complicated.

https://i.imgur.com/rGwLX8H.png

One oddity is since 2010 we have struggled to get a strong La Nina by SSTs. Meanwhile having had at least 2 big El Ninos since then. Even during the long stretch during 2020-2022 did not see one by ONI. But the atmosphere has resembled a strong response. History isn't helping us as much, just different times now when the base warmth is higher than the past bar, it's harder to cool SSTs, at the same time the extra-tropics are getting warmer thus muting El Nino responses in the atmosphere while the ocean says otherwise. Very inverse with the typical El Nino/La Nina behavior. Typically the tropic waters tend to have a lead influence on the extra-tropics but in recent cases further north have just warmed and warmed, reducing the gradient and influence.

[LarryWx]

Here is the ENSO Blog, where they discusss about how strong may be La Niña.

First things first, let’s acknowledge that there have only been 10 times in the historical record where ENSO flipped from El Niño into La Niña within a year. That’s not enough examples to draw any solid conclusions from. Still, it’s interesting to look at what we have and speculate as to what it might mean, so that’s all I am doing here.

Each line on the graph above represents a year in which the tropical Pacific shifted from El Niño to La Niña with no neutral winter in between. The lines are colored based on the strength of the El Niño: red for strong events (peak Niño 3.4-region sea surface temperature anomalies above 1.5 ˚C, or 2.7 ˚F), orange for moderate events (peak anomaly between 1 and 1.5 ˚C, or 1.8-2.7 ˚F), and pink for weak events (peak anomaly less than 1 ˚C, or 1.8 ˚F).

The relationship between the strength of the El Niño and the strength of the subsequent La Niña is kinda messy. It’s unlikely, but not impossible, for weak and moderate El Niños to lead to a strong La Niña (Niño 3.4 temperature anomaly of more than 1.5 ˚C below average). Only one of the pink and orange lines gets below that threshold. Meanwhile, 4 of the 6 strong El Niños do evolve into strong La Niñas. But before we put too much stock in that pattern, we should note that the strongest El Niño of all (top red line at the left hand side of the graph) wound up developing into the weakest La Niña (3). So…yeah. It’s complicated.

https://i.imgur.com/rGwLX8H.png

One oddity is since 2010 we have struggled to get a strong La Nina by SSTs. Meanwhile having had at least 2 big El Ninos since then. Even during the long stretch during 2020-2022 did not see one by ONI. But the atmosphere has resembled a strong response. History isn't helping us as much, just different times now when the base warmth is higher than the past bar, it's harder to cool SSTs, at the same time the extra-tropics are getting warmer thus muting El Nino responses in the atmosphere while the ocean says otherwise. Very inverse with the typical El Nino/La Nina behavior. Typically the tropic waters tend to have a lead influence on the extra-tropics but in recent cases further north have just warmed and warmed, reducing the gradient and influence.

1) By substituting RONI for ONI, the imbalance isn’t as large:
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indi ... .ascii.txt

2) Per the following RONI graph, La Niña has already started:

https://x.com/BenNollWeather/status/179 ... 90/photo/1

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/BenNollWeather/status/1803020067044839609

[weeniepatrol]

Per yesterday's weekly Nino 3.4 is at 0.0 C