Texas Summer 2024

[snownado]

So for those who didn't hear, there's a lot of hand wringling right now over a EF-1 tornado that struck a Detroit suburb the other day and was responsible for the death of a 2 year old.

Joe Public is being highly critical of the Meteorologists that day because the NWS office in Detroit did not issue a Tornado Warning (actually, I'm not even certain a Severe Thunderstorm Warning was issued for the specific cell).

None the less though, the blame game aside, it's a sad but prudent reminder that people should not take severe t'storm predictions lightly, as the environment will be conducive to rapidly evolving conditions at a mesoscale level that even Meteorologists may not always be able to proactively warn the public about.

Supposedly, the family at the time the storms hit was asleep, even though it was in the middle of the afternoon.

[bubba hotep]

Something in the Western Gulf out beyond day 7?

[Cpv17]

Something in the Western Gulf out beyond day 7?

It’s looking possible, for sure. I noticed an uptick on the 12z GEFS, and the steering pattern looks favorable for something in the Western Gulf during that time period.

[Brent]

The GEFS definitely says hurricane season is about to wake up

In other news our hottest day of the year tomorrow. How exciting is that

[snownado]

N. TX looks to have one more opportunity at NW flow convection / cloud debris to keep temps under check next week before the death ridge firmly locks in.

[snownado]

The GEFS definitely says hurricane season is about to wake up

In other news our hottest day of the year tomorrow. How exciting is that

I mean, that's a typical GEFS bias. I would take it with a huge grain of salt, as the pattern isn't all that favorable for development.

They and the OP model predicted 32 of the 8 tropical systems that hit the US last year...

[Ntxw]

Get as much clouds and rain in as you can before the faucet shuts off. Throes of summer.

[gpsnowman]

Get as much clouds and rain in as you can before the faucet shuts off. Throes of summer.

https://i.imgur.com/Zs1XZx5.png

Hopefully that thing meanders and doesn't get stuck over one place.

[bubba hotep]

Get as much clouds and rain in as you can before the faucet shuts off. Throes of summer.

https://i.imgur.com/Zs1XZx5.png

Hopefully that thing meanders and doesn't get stuck over one place.

Euro EPS keeps temps about normal across DFW and shows several rain chances.

The 12z Euro is a broken record wth rainfall over the same areas.

[Cpv17]

I’m not really concerned about any serious heat building across the state anytime soon. I’d say normal to slightly above normal temps are in the cards over the next couple weeks, but nothing crazy. Then next weekend we’ll have to watch the western Gulf for at least some increased moisture.

[mmmmsnouts]

Joe Public is being highly critical of the Meteorologists that day because the NWS office in Detroit did not issue a Tornado Warning (actually, I'm not even certain a Severe Thunderstorm Warning was issued for the specific cell).

None the less though, the blame game aside, it's a sad but prudent reminder that people should not take severe t'storm predictions lightly, as the environment will be conducive to rapidly evolving conditions at a mesoscale level that even Meteorologists may not always be able to proactively warn the public about.

This is sort of what I was getting at when I remarked at how often NWS Fort Worth has had to issue storm warnings this season when there was no watch on the books. Whatever models are being used to help forecast might be underestimating the dynamics in our changing climate, or they just aren't up to snuff at all. How many times did you read the forecaster discussions the last few weeks in this NW flow pattern, and they boiled down to "the models have no clue, check back later"? I could get a Magic 8 Ball to tell me that.

At the same time, broad brushing alerts like the old days would give people warning fatigue and hurt confidence in the other direction. It's a tough situation but right now I think it's putting a little too much on the general public to properly diagnose the possibilities.

[txtwister78]

Well would you look at that...storms actually surviving a trip through the Hill Country and moving into San Antonio. Bring on the rain.

[txtwister78]

 https://x.com/NWSSanAntonio/status/1800019523220930945

[South Texas Storms]

Another complex of showers and thunderstorms is currently moving across areas that have largely missed out the past several months. So good to see!

[txtwister78]

Widespread rainfall amounts of 2-3 inches with a few embedded pockets of 4 inches has fallen across southwest, west and northwest sections of SA in the last 12 hours. Big cutoff as you move into central and especially eastern areas which haven't been as fortunate; however, the good news is the heaviest rain has fallen across the Edwards Aquifer Recharge Zone.

Much needed with perhaps one more opportunity later this evening or overnight if the atmosphere can recover enough.

[weatherdude1108]

Widespread rainfall amounts of 2-3 inches with a few embedded pockets of 4 inches has fallen across southwest, west and northwest sections of SA in the last 12 hours. Big cutoff as you move into central and especially eastern areas which haven't been as fortunate; however, the good news is the heaviest rain has fallen across the Edwards Aquifer Recharge Zone.

Much needed with perhaps one more opportunity later this evening or overnight if the atmosphere can recover enough.

That's awesome! The Edwards Plateau, Rio Grande Plains and southern Hill Country have largely missed out on the Spring rains, hence the worst drought areas and meager groundwater/lake levels (i.e., Travis and Canyon). Nice to see it raining heavily in areas where it is needed most, for a change.

[cheezyWXguy]

I see the 12z gfs is delivering on the fantasyland solutions

[Ntxw]

Things seems to be unchanged. Western Texas, Rio Grande will be the areas of greatest heat. Seasonably hot, with some chances in the easter part of the Texas. Surge of Gulf moisture will have a higher risk of heavy precip in coastal Texas late in the period, all highlighted by CPC risks. Fits the 500h pattern.

[Texas Snowman]

 https://x.com/nwsamarillo/status/1800253381078118427

[Texas Snowman]

 https://x.com/blakebrownwx/status/1800190081267081597