2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Ivanhater]

GFS has a ton of rain for the northern Gulf Coast this weekend into next week. Develops another low from the CAG in a few days. CMC and Euro are catching on with the GFs. Looks messy in the Gulf for the foreseeable future.

GFS is excellent at picking up on overall patterns first. I remember it was picking up on Idalia way before other models.

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[skyline385]

GFS has a ton of rain for the northern Gulf Coast this weekend into next week. Develops another low from the CAG in a few days. CMC and Euro are catching on with the GFs. Looks messy in the Gulf for the foreseeable future.

GFS is excellent at picking up on overall patterns first. I remember it was picking up on Idalia way before other models.https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20240610/c9b301f972c69ea23009b450633cd7ae.jpg

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GFS is tuned to be hyper sensitivity and hence it picks up on changing weather patterns easily. Its hyper sensitivity was discussed in the last upgrade presentation as a desired trait iirc, there are more false signals but it also prevents missed signals like the Euro does every now and then which can have worse consequences than overdone systems 300+ hours out. I generally don't take individual deterministic models seriously past 120hrs since that's what the current NHC verification extends to.

[jlauderdal]

GFS has a ton of rain for the northern Gulf Coast this weekend into next week. Develops another low from the CAG in a few days. CMC and Euro are catching on with the GFs. Looks messy in the Gulf for the foreseeable future.

GFS is excellent at picking up on overall patterns first. I remember it was picking up on Idalia way before other models.https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20240610/c9b301f972c69ea23009b450633cd7ae.jpg

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GFS is tuned to be hyper sensitivity and hence it picks up on changing weather patterns easily. Its hyper sensitivity was discussed in the last upgrade presentation as a desired trait iirc, there are more false signals but it also prevents missed signals like the Euro does every now and then which can have worse consequences than overdone systems 300+ hours out. I generally don't take individual deterministic models seriously past 120hrs since that's what the current NHC verification extends to.

We will get some invests and better going and that will kill off any need to look at la la land modeling

[jlauderdal]

GFS has a ton of rain for the northern Gulf Coast this weekend into next week. Develops another low from the CAG in a few days. CMC and Euro are catching on with the GFs. Looks messy in the Gulf for the foreseeable future.

GFS is excellent at picking up on overall patterns first. I remember it was picking up on Idalia way before other models.https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20240610/c9b301f972c69ea23009b450633cd7ae.jpg

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In an area where "ideal" conditions are the norm during the rainy season, it is not a big deal, usually.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
217 PM EDT MON JUN 10 2024

..NEW SHORT TERM, MARINE


SHORT TERM

(REST OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM EDT MON JUN 10 2024

IDEAL CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE THIS WEEK FOR A PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN
EVENT ACROSS SOUTH FL.

[Steve]

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Hello moto.

[Ivanhater]

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Hello moto.

Haa! Good to see you, Steve!

Gearing up for another season!

[skyline385]

Euro and EPS showing a potential system from the vortmax near Cuba. 12z models also very likely didn't initialize the vortmax fully.

 https://twitter.com/MikeFischerWx/status/1800245895453450583

[MarioProtVI]

Euro and EPS showing a potential system from the vortmax near Cuba.https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20240610/240d4fe0eba1f789816dde16b729bb5e.jpg https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20240610/cbfc7b1f52c1c399597e20e0133fc86b.jpg https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20240610/90b25ebd2b1ebac033feb326674ddbda.jpg

This seems like it has the better shot to become Alberto. Quite the uptrend from 06z. Maybe they mark at 8 depending how 18z GFS handles it?

[OuterBanker]

Today's GFS 12z reminds me of Apollo 13.

"Houston we have a problem"

[skyline385]

GFS trending towards it as well

[MarioProtVI]

Aand the 18z euro dropped it. Classic

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Aand the 18z euro dropped it. Classic

Ehh, looks like its still there, but it is noticeably weaker.

[skyline385]

Aand the 18z euro dropped it. Classic

Hasn't dropped it, just keeps it broad and weaker than last run up to 90 hours

EPS still shows decent members

[Wampadawg]

Will it be the Gulf or the Coast race to Alberto!

[Stratton23]

That potential BOC system is getting my interest, at least on the CMC lol

[LarryWx]

0Z UKMET:

1. keeps streak going to 7 of runs with a TC off the SE US coast:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 30.3N 77.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 13.06.2024 48 30.6N 77.5W 1010 31
1200UTC 13.06.2024 60 32.4N 74.1W 1009 35
0000UTC 14.06.2024 72 33.3N 73.8W 1010 32
1200UTC 14.06.2024 84 34.9N 71.9W 1011 28
0000UTC 15.06.2024 96 38.6N 67.7W 1007 36
1200UTC 15.06.2024 108 42.4N 62.9W 1004 37
0000UTC 16.06.2024 120 CEASED TRACKING
—————————————-

2. Again the UKMET doesn’t have a W GOM TCG.

[kevin]

With nearly 100% of GEFS members showing activity within 120 hours as well as the a significant members on the Euro ensemble, ICON and CMC, I don't really see why the NHC hasn't put up a lemon yet for the East Coast system. It probably won't be a strong system, but nearly all models at least show a TD at this point.

Anyways, here's 06z GFS, weak TC in +78 hrs with 30 kt winds.

[tolakram]

With nearly 100% of GEFS members showing activity within 120 hours as well as the a significant members on the Euro ensemble, ICON and CMC, I don't really see why the NHC hasn't put up a lemon yet for the East Coast system. It probably won't be a strong system, but nearly all models at least show a TD at this point.

Anyways, here's 06z GFS, weak TC in +78 hrs with 30 kt winds.

GFS hearts the BOC. lol, someone had to do it.

[Ivanhater]

GFS and CMC in excellent agreement on a system beginning of next week. Heavy rain for northern Gulf Coast.

This starts to take shape in 4 days. I suspect a lemon on this by then

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[cycloneye]

All the model runs for now invest 90L are being posted at the 90L models thread.

https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopi ... 3#p3066593