ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

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cycloneye
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ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#1 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 11, 2024 7:44 am

Only model runs.
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kevin
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#2 Postby kevin » Tue Jun 11, 2024 11:13 am

12z GFS shows TC formation at 54 hours and peaks as a 35 kt, 1006 mb TS before becoming ET around 90 hours.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#3 Postby DorkyMcDorkface » Tue Jun 11, 2024 7:00 pm

Euro ticked up in intensity this evening.

12z:
Image

18z:
Image
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ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#4 Postby LarryWx » Wed Jun 12, 2024 2:08 am

0Z UKMET: 990 mb Newfoundland Sunday:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 30.2N 77.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 13.06.2024 36 30.0N 77.4W 1009 39
0000UTC 14.06.2024 48 31.7N 75.9W 1008 33
1200UTC 14.06.2024 60 32.9N 73.8W 1007 36
0000UTC 15.06.2024 72 34.5N 71.8W 1005 32
1200UTC 15.06.2024 84 37.6N 67.7W 1001 41
0000UTC 16.06.2024 96 42.2N 61.6W 993 44
1200UTC 16.06.2024 108 47.8N 55.0W 990 37
0000UTC 17.06.2024 120 53.6N 51.5W 982 42
1200UTC 17.06.2024 132 POST-TROPICAL
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#5 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 12, 2024 1:18 pm

12z EURO has a good looking 90L.

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#6 Postby LarryWx » Wed Jun 12, 2024 2:32 pm

12Z UKMET: another big hit on Canada

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 90L ANALYSED POSITION : 28.0N 83.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL902024

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 12.06.2024 0 28.0N 83.0W 1011 23
0000UTC 13.06.2024 12 29.4N 79.3W 1008 37
1200UTC 13.06.2024 24 30.9N 77.4W 1005 39
0000UTC 14.06.2024 36 31.5N 76.6W 1004 38
1200UTC 14.06.2024 48 33.3N 75.0W 1001 38
0000UTC 15.06.2024 60 35.6N 72.4W 995 42
1200UTC 15.06.2024 72 39.1N 68.2W 990 51
0000UTC 16.06.2024 84 43.7N 62.3W 983 49
1200UTC 16.06.2024 96 48.2N 55.8W 986 45
0000UTC 17.06.2024 108 54.2N 52.3W 986 41
1200UTC 17.06.2024 120 POST-TROPICAL
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#7 Postby LarryWx » Thu Jun 13, 2024 9:44 pm

12Z UKMET for 6/13/24

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 90L ANALYSED POSITION : 30.2N 78.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL902024

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 13.06.2024 0 30.2N 78.1W 1011 27
0000UTC 14.06.2024 12 31.9N 77.8W 1009 31
1200UTC 14.06.2024 24 32.2N 76.6W 1007 35
0000UTC 15.06.2024 36 36.6N 72.2W 1005 40
1200UTC 15.06.2024 48 39.1N 68.7W 1000 42
0000UTC 16.06.2024 60 45.2N 60.3W 998 37
1200UTC 16.06.2024 72 52.2N 53.2W 993 32
0000UTC 17.06.2024 84 POST-TROPICAL
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#8 Postby MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS » Fri Jun 14, 2024 2:35 pm

No consensus on strength or track, but plenty of consensus on a wet Father’s Day in Bermuda! GFS shows about 0.6” - very much needed!
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