2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

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Re: 2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

#1221 Postby SFLcane » Wed Jun 12, 2024 8:44 am

Deshaunrob17 wrote:That wave in the Eastern Looks very impressive. Some EPS members try to briefly spin it up the day for so, but probably won’t amount to much until it reaches the Western Caribbean/ Gulf late next week.
Things are starting to look more interesting. Very soon (like the end of this month) I won’t be surprised if start looking out in the MDR for development. July is a month to watch. Models show shear really subsiding , so only Sharan Dust May keep the cap on.


 https://x.com/AdrianLinares28/status/1800875023223382043

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Re: 2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

#1222 Postby AnnularCane » Wed Jun 12, 2024 9:59 am

Actually probably closer to mid-June now, but yeah...that is a beauty. :P
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Re: 2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

#1223 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 12, 2024 10:34 am

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Re: 2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

#1224 Postby WeatherBoy2000 » Wed Jun 12, 2024 11:10 am

 https://x.com/webberweather/status/1800918749777940533



2005 is now among the CSU analogs for this season as well. This is beating a dead horse at this point, but a very active to potentially historic season seems to be on the way.
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Re: 2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

#1225 Postby LarryWx » Wed Jun 12, 2024 11:13 am

SFLcane wrote:
Deshaunrob17 wrote:That wave in the Eastern Looks very impressive. Some EPS members try to briefly spin it up the day for so, but probably won’t amount to much until it reaches the Western Caribbean/ Gulf late next week.
Things are starting to look more interesting. Very soon (like the end of this month) I won’t be surprised if start looking out in the MDR for development. July is a month to watch. Models show shear really subsiding , so only Sharan Dust May keep the cap on.


 https://x.com/AdrianLinares28/status/1800875023223382043



Adrian,
We'll see. June of both 2022 and 2023 had unusually well developed waves coming off of Africa. As a result a good number of S2K posts in June of those two years were similar. But for both years there was about a 2 month long period afterward for which no emerging from Africa AEW later lead to a TCG:

1) 2022: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tracks/tracks-at-2022.png

2022 had two well developed AEWs in mid to late June. The one that came off Africa on June 22nd later had a TCG (Bonnie). It then became absolutely dead quiet in the MDR due to dry wave after dry wave. It was over 2 months before the next AEW emerged from Africa that lead to an MDR TCG! On Aug 25th, a disorganized AEW came off of Africa. Convection didn't increase until Sep 1st, which then lead to Earl.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Atla ... ane_season

2) 2023: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tracks/tracks-at-2023.png

2023 had two TS's form in the MDR!
- On June 15th, an AEW came off Africa that lead to Bret on June 19th.
- On June 18th, an AEW came off Africa that lead to Cindy on June 22nd.
- It took til Aug 13th for the next AEW to emerge from Africa that later produced an MDR TCG. That one became TD 6 on Aug 19th and later became Gert.

https://simple.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_ ... ane_season

So, IF 2024 were to turn out similar to 2022 and 2023, the MDR may go quiet for quite awhile after an initially unusually active period in June.
Opinions on this?
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Re: 2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

#1226 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Wed Jun 12, 2024 11:26 am

LarryWx wrote:
SFLcane wrote:
Deshaunrob17 wrote:That wave in the Eastern Looks very impressive. Some EPS members try to briefly spin it up the day for so, but probably won’t amount to much until it reaches the Western Caribbean/ Gulf late next week.
Things are starting to look more interesting. Very soon (like the end of this month) I won’t be surprised if start looking out in the MDR for development. July is a month to watch. Models show shear really subsiding , so only Sharan Dust May keep the cap on.


 https://x.com/AdrianLinares28/status/1800875023223382043



Adrian,
We'll see. June of both 2022 and 2023 had unusually well developed waves coming off of Africa. As a result a good number of S2K posts in June of those two years were similar. But for both years there was about a 2 month long period afterward for which no emerging from Africa AEW later lead to a TCG:

1) 2022: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tracks/tracks-at-2022.png

2022 had two well developed AEWs in mid to late June. The one that came off Africa on June 22nd later had a TCG (Bonnie). It then became absolutely dead quiet in the MDR due to dry wave after dry wave. It was over 2 months before the next AEW emerged from Africa that lead to an MDR TCG! On Aug 25th, a disorganized AEW came off of Africa. Convection didn't increase until Sep 1st, which then lead to Earl.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Atla ... ane_season

2) 2023: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tracks/tracks-at-2023.png

2023 had two TS's form in the MDR!
- On June 15th, an AEW came off Africa that lead to Bret on June 19th.
- On June 18th, an AEW came off Africa that lead to Cindy on June 22nd.
- It took til Aug 13th for the next AEW to emerge from Africa that later produced an MDR TCG. That one became TD 6 on Aug 19th and later became Gert.

https://simple.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_ ... ane_season

So, IF 2024 were to turn out similar to 2022 and 2023, the MDR may go quiet for quite awhile after an initially unusually active period in June.
Opinions on this?

I think the difference is that those seasons featured quite a bit of dry mid level air. That doesn't seem to be the case so far this year. Also, the fact that it still has so much convection and hasn't fallen apart yet is significant.
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Re: 2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

#1227 Postby LarryWx » Wed Jun 12, 2024 11:42 am

ScottNAtlanta wrote:
LarryWx wrote:


Adrian,
We'll see. June of both 2022 and 2023 had unusually well developed waves coming off of Africa. As a result a good number of S2K posts in June of those two years were similar. But for both years there was about a 2 month long period afterward for which no emerging from Africa AEW later lead to a TCG:

1) 2022: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tracks/tracks-at-2022.png

2022 had two well developed AEWs in mid to late June. The one that came off Africa on June 22nd later had a TCG (Bonnie). It then became absolutely dead quiet in the MDR due to dry wave after dry wave. It was over 2 months before the next AEW emerged from Africa that lead to an MDR TCG! On Aug 25th, a disorganized AEW came off of Africa. Convection didn't increase until Sep 1st, which then lead to Earl.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Atla ... ane_season

2) 2023: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tracks/tracks-at-2023.png

2023 had two TS's form in the MDR!
- On June 15th, an AEW came off Africa that lead to Bret on June 19th.
- On June 18th, an AEW came off Africa that lead to Cindy on June 22nd.
- It took til Aug 13th for the next AEW to emerge from Africa that later produced an MDR TCG. That one became TD 6 on Aug 19th and later became Gert.

https://simple.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_ ... ane_season

So, IF 2024 were to turn out similar to 2022 and 2023, the MDR may go quiet for quite awhile after an initially unusually active period in June.
Opinions on this?

I think the difference is that those seasons featured quite a bit of dry mid level air. That doesn't seem to be the case so far this year. Also, the fact that it still has so much convection and hasn't fallen apart yet is significant.


Scott,
Thanks for your reply.
1) Was there dry mid level air dominating during those active periods of June of 2022 and 2023?
2) The precursor AEWs to Bonnie of 2022 and Bret/Cindy of 2023 also held convection after emerging from Africa.
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Re: 2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

#1228 Postby SFLcane » Wed Jun 12, 2024 11:44 am

LarryWx wrote:
SFLcane wrote:
Deshaunrob17 wrote:That wave in the Eastern Looks very impressive. Some EPS members try to briefly spin it up the day for so, but probably won’t amount to much until it reaches the Western Caribbean/ Gulf late next week.
Things are starting to look more interesting. Very soon (like the end of this month) I won’t be surprised if start looking out in the MDR for development. July is a month to watch. Models show shear really subsiding , so only Sharan Dust May keep the cap on.


 https://x.com/AdrianLinares28/status/1800875023223382043



Adrian,
We'll see. June of both 2022 and 2023 had unusually well developed waves coming off of Africa. As a result a good number of S2K posts in June of those two years were similar. But for both years there was about a 2 month long period afterward for which no emerging from Africa AEW later lead to a TCG:

1) 2022: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tracks/tracks-at-2022.png

2022 had two well developed AEWs in mid to late June. The one that came off Africa on June 22nd later had a TCG (Bonnie). It then became absolutely dead quiet in the MDR due to dry wave after dry wave. It was over 2 months before the next AEW emerged from Africa that lead to an MDR TCG! On Aug 25th, a disorganized AEW came off of Africa. Convection didn't increase until Sep 1st, which then lead to Earl.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Atla ... ane_season

2) 2023: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tracks/tracks-at-2023.png

2023 had two TS's form in the MDR!
- On June 15th, an AEW came off Africa that lead to Bret on June 19th.
- On June 18th, an AEW came off Africa that lead to Cindy on June 22nd.
- It took til Aug 13th for the next AEW to emerge from Africa that later produced an MDR TCG. That one became TD 6 on Aug 19th and later became Gert.

https://simple.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_ ... ane_season

So, IF 2024 were to turn out similar to 2022 and 2023, the MDR may go quiet for quite awhile after an initially unusually active period in June.
Opinions on this?


Pretty confident we will see more. See this from @ventrice

Image
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Re: 2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

#1229 Postby SFLcane » Wed Jun 12, 2024 11:45 am

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Re: 2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

#1230 Postby zzzh » Wed Jun 12, 2024 11:46 am

You can always find some convectively active waves off the coast of Africa. This is very common for June, especially when you don't consider the duration. If it stays convectively active for 3 days then I would call it impressive.
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Re: 2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

#1231 Postby LarryWx » Wed Jun 12, 2024 12:03 pm

zzzh wrote:You can always find some convectively active waves off the coast of Africa. This is very common for June, especially when you don't consider the duration. If it stays convectively active for 3 days then I would call it impressive.


That’s what happened in June of both 2022 and 2023. They had impressive convection that held for days and later lead to TCGs in three cases.
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Re: 2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

#1232 Postby chaser1 » Wed Jun 12, 2024 12:16 pm

LarryWx wrote:
SFLcane wrote:
Deshaunrob17 wrote:That wave in the Eastern Looks very impressive. Some EPS members try to briefly spin it up the day for so, but probably won’t amount to much until it reaches the Western Caribbean/ Gulf late next week.
Things are starting to look more interesting. Very soon (like the end of this month) I won’t be surprised if start looking out in the MDR for development. July is a month to watch. Models show shear really subsiding , so only Sharan Dust May keep the cap on.


 https://x.com/AdrianLinares28/status/1800875023223382043



Adrian,
We'll see. June of both 2022 and 2023 had unusually well developed waves coming off of Africa. As a result a good number of S2K posts in June of those two years were similar. But for both years there was about a 2 month long period afterward for which no emerging from Africa AEW later lead to a TCG:

1) 2022: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tracks/tracks-at-2022.png

2022 had two well developed AEWs in mid to late June. The one that came off Africa on June 22nd later had a TCG (Bonnie). It then became absolutely dead quiet in the MDR due to dry wave after dry wave. It was over 2 months before the next AEW emerged from Africa that lead to an MDR TCG! On Aug 25th, a disorganized AEW came off of Africa. Convection didn't increase until Sep 1st, which then lead to Earl.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Atla ... ane_season

2) 2023: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tracks/tracks-at-2023.png

2023 had two TS's form in the MDR!
- On June 15th, an AEW came off Africa that lead to Bret on June 19th.
- On June 18th, an AEW came off Africa that lead to Cindy on June 22nd.
- It took til Aug 13th for the next AEW to emerge from Africa that later produced an MDR TCG. That one became TD 6 on Aug 19th and later became Gert.

https://simple.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_ ... ane_season

So, IF 2024 were to turn out similar to 2022 and 2023, the MDR may go quiet for quite awhile after an initially unusually active period in June.
Opinions on this?


Here's a thought. Outside of the obvious (approx) 2 month gap between significant EAW's that occurred in 2022 & 2023, there were respectively 3 & 4 named storms that did form for those years. Those TC's were largely less noteworthy either as a result of sub-tropic genesis and/or storm track, or for some given their weaker presentation due to some inhibiting conditions. Even if a similar gap occurs with particularly strong EAW's during 2024, I think it may be reasonable to think that a number of increasingly threatening factors during 2024 and at this time might-
1) enhance the number of TC's that do form within that 2 month period of time from 3 to 4 named storms, to possibly 5 or more.
2) cause those TS's that do form within this time span, to be stronger given the warmer SST's AND primary genesis primarily occurring in the deeper tropics (lower latitudes)
3) result in a greater landfall risk as a result of anticipated further west genesis and storm tracks.

Furthermore, it goes without saying that all of the above doesn't even begin to consider whether that approx 2 month gap in significantly strong AEW's occurred in '22 & '23 as a result of SAL, higher E. Atlantic surface pressures causing a suppression of the ITCZ, deficiancy in low to mid level humidity, vertical shear, etc..... or whether those same mitigating conditions will similarly occur and impact 2024 early season EAW's.
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Re: 2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

#1233 Postby zzzh » Wed Jun 12, 2024 12:18 pm

LarryWx wrote:Adrian,
We'll see. June of both 2022 and 2023 had unusually well developed waves coming off of Africa. As a result a good number of S2K posts in June of those two years were similar. But for both years there was about a 2 month long period afterward for which no emerging from Africa AEW later lead to a TCG:

1) 2022: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tracks/tracks-at-2022.png

2022 had two well developed AEWs in mid to late June. The one that came off Africa on June 22nd later had a TCG (Bonnie). It then became absolutely dead quiet in the MDR due to dry wave after dry wave. It was over 2 months before the next AEW emerged from Africa that lead to an MDR TCG! On Aug 25th, a disorganized AEW came off of Africa. Convection didn't increase until Sep 1st, which then lead to Earl.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Atla ... ane_season

2) 2023: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tracks/tracks-at-2023.png

2023 had two TS's form in the MDR!
- On June 15th, an AEW came off Africa that lead to Bret on June 19th.
- On June 18th, an AEW came off Africa that lead to Cindy on June 22nd.
- It took til Aug 13th for the next AEW to emerge from Africa that later produced an MDR TCG. That one became TD 6 on Aug 19th and later became Gert.

https://simple.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_ ... ane_season

So, IF 2024 were to turn out similar to 2022 and 2023, the MDR may go quiet for quite awhile after an initially unusually active period in June.
Opinions on this?

That's the trend in the past few years, a MDR system in June/early July followed by a lull until mid August. I think it has something to do with global warming.
With the extremely favorable setup this year I would be surprised if the lull happens again. And if it happens, the question is are we ever able to see a strong MDR storm in July-early August in the future?
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Re: 2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

#1234 Postby chaser1 » Wed Jun 12, 2024 12:50 pm

:eek: Think about how rare it is for the Atlantic basin to begin producing tropical cyclones in June, and more or less continue non-stop through the entire season. Then consider how uncommon it is to have a season where steering results in a preponderance of storm tracks and/or storm development to occur further west within the Atlantic basin. The idea of both occurring during the same hurricane season is REALLY imposing & exhausting. Now add higher than normal octane SST's resulting in a higher percentage of strong hurricanes and the potential for an increased number of hurricanes to experience RI on approach to landfall, and you practically have a Sharknado-dumb plot line for some low $$ budget "end-of-the-world" movie.

Add a lot of popcorn to your preps, people (just in case).
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Re: 2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

#1235 Postby Category5Kaiju » Wed Jun 12, 2024 1:07 pm

chaser1 wrote::eek: Think about how rare it is for the Atlantic basin to begin producing tropical cyclones in June, and more or less continue non-stop through the entire season. Then consider how uncommon it is to have a season where steering results in a preponderance of storm tracks and/or storm development to occur further west within the Atlantic basin. The idea of both occurring during the same hurricane season is REALLY imposing & exhausting. Now add higher than normal octane SST's resulting in a higher percentage of strong hurricanes and the potential for an increased number of hurricanes to experience RI on approach to landfall, and you practically have a Sharknado-dumb plot line for some low $$ budget "end-of-the-world" movie.

Add a lot of popcorn to your preps, people (just in case).


Really hammers down why 2005 was such an exceptional year. Yes, it had 4 Cat 5s and two major hurricanes in July, but the season was also unusual in how there really wasn’t a distinctive peak. It just kept producing storms right and left. And I’d say 2020 was kind of like this too, though with less overall ACE.
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Re: 2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

#1236 Postby LarryWx » Wed Jun 12, 2024 1:14 pm

chaser1 wrote:
LarryWx wrote:


Adrian,
We'll see. June of both 2022 and 2023 had unusually well developed waves coming off of Africa. As a result a good number of S2K posts in June of those two years were similar. But for both years there was about a 2 month long period afterward for which no emerging from Africa AEW later lead to a TCG:

1) 2022: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tracks/tracks-at-2022.png

2022 had two well developed AEWs in mid to late June. The one that came off Africa on June 22nd later had a TCG (Bonnie). It then became absolutely dead quiet in the MDR due to dry wave after dry wave. It was over 2 months before the next AEW emerged from Africa that lead to an MDR TCG! On Aug 25th, a disorganized AEW came off of Africa. Convection didn't increase until Sep 1st, which then lead to Earl.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Atla ... ane_season

2) 2023: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tracks/tracks-at-2023.png

2023 had two TS's form in the MDR!
- On June 15th, an AEW came off Africa that lead to Bret on June 19th.
- On June 18th, an AEW came off Africa that lead to Cindy on June 22nd.
- It took til Aug 13th for the next AEW to emerge from Africa that later produced an MDR TCG. That one became TD 6 on Aug 19th and later became Gert.

https://simple.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_ ... ane_season

So, IF 2024 were to turn out similar to 2022 and 2023, the MDR may go quiet for quite awhile after an initially unusually active period in June.
Opinions on this?


Here's a thought. Outside of the obvious (approx) 2 month gap between significant EAW's that occurred in 2022 & 2023, there were respectively 3 & 4 named storms that did form for those years. Those TC's were largely less noteworthy either as a result of sub-tropic genesis and/or storm track, or for some given their weaker presentation due to some inhibiting conditions. Even if a similar gap occurs with particularly strong EAW's during 2024, I think it may be reasonable to think that a number of increasingly threatening factors during 2024 and at this time might-
1) enhance the number of TC's that do form within that 2 month period of time from 3 to 4 named storms, to possibly 5 or more.
2) cause those TS's that do form within this time span, to be stronger given the warmer SST's AND primary genesis primarily occurring in the deeper tropics (lower latitudes)
3) result in a greater landfall risk as a result of anticipated further west genesis and storm tracks.

Furthermore, it goes without saying that all of the above doesn't even begin to consider whether that approx 2 month gap in significantly strong AEW's occurred in '22 & '23 as a result of SAL, higher E. Atlantic surface pressures causing a suppression of the ITCZ, deficiancy in low to mid level humidity, vertical shear, etc..... or whether those same mitigating conditions will similarly occur and impact 2024 early season EAW's.


Thanks for your reply.

-2022: During the period June 22nd through Aug 25th, the period between Bonnie’s AEW emergence and Earl’s AEW emergence, there was only one TC, Colin. Colin formed just offshore Savannah on July 1st. Danielle didn’t form til Sep 1st (in subtropical area from a decaying front.)

-2023: Between the just under 2 month period between the emergence of the respective AEWs that lead to Cindy and Gert (June 18th through Aug 13th) there was just one TCG anywhere in the basin, Don on July 14th. (It formed in the subtropics ENE of Bermuda from an extratropical trough.)
Emily and Franklin actually didn’t become TCs til August 20th, a day after the TD that later formed into Gert was designated. So, there was just Don during that quiet MDR period.

So, in summary, there was just one TCG during each ~2 month period (both subtropical).
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Re: 2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

#1237 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Wed Jun 12, 2024 1:25 pm

LarryWx wrote:
ScottNAtlanta wrote:
LarryWx wrote:
Adrian,
We'll see. June of both 2022 and 2023 had unusually well developed waves coming off of Africa. As a result a good number of S2K posts in June of those two years were similar. But for both years there was about a 2 month long period afterward for which no emerging from Africa AEW later lead to a TCG:

1) 2022: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tracks/tracks-at-2022.png

2022 had two well developed AEWs in mid to late June. The one that came off Africa on June 22nd later had a TCG (Bonnie). It then became absolutely dead quiet in the MDR due to dry wave after dry wave. It was over 2 months before the next AEW emerged from Africa that lead to an MDR TCG! On Aug 25th, a disorganized AEW came off of Africa. Convection didn't increase until Sep 1st, which then lead to Earl.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Atla ... ane_season

2) 2023: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tracks/tracks-at-2023.png

2023 had two TS's form in the MDR!
- On June 15th, an AEW came off Africa that lead to Bret on June 19th.
- On June 18th, an AEW came off Africa that lead to Cindy on June 22nd.
- It took til Aug 13th for the next AEW to emerge from Africa that later produced an MDR TCG. That one became TD 6 on Aug 19th and later became Gert.

https://simple.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_ ... ane_season

So, IF 2024 were to turn out similar to 2022 and 2023, the MDR may go quiet for quite awhile after an initially unusually active period in June.
Opinions on this?

I think the difference is that those seasons featured quite a bit of dry mid level air. That doesn't seem to be the case so far this year. Also, the fact that it still has so much convection and hasn't fallen apart yet is significant.


Scott,
Thanks for your reply.
1) Was there dry mid level air dominating during those active periods of June of 2022 and 2023?
2) The precursor AEWs to Bonnie of 2022 and Bret/Cindy of 2023 also held convection after emerging from Africa.

As I recall...Bonnie struggled the entire time it moved over the Atlantic and really didn't get going until it was about to cross over to the Pacific. I'm pretty sure with Bonnie it was dry air. Thunderstorms would build only to collapse.
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Re: 2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

#1238 Postby skyline385 » Wed Jun 12, 2024 1:42 pm

LarryWx wrote:
SFLcane wrote:
Deshaunrob17 wrote:That wave in the Eastern Looks very impressive. Some EPS members try to briefly spin it up the day for so, but probably won’t amount to much until it reaches the Western Caribbean/ Gulf late next week.
Things are starting to look more interesting. Very soon (like the end of this month) I won’t be surprised if start looking out in the MDR for development. July is a month to watch. Models show shear really subsiding , so only Sharan Dust May keep the cap on.


 https://x.com/AdrianLinares28/status/1800875023223382043



Adrian,
We'll see. June of both 2022 and 2023 had unusually well developed waves coming off of Africa. As a result a good number of S2K posts in June of those two years were similar. But for both years there was about a 2 month long period afterward for which no emerging from Africa AEW later lead to a TCG:

1) 2022: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tracks/tracks-at-2022.png

2022 had two well developed AEWs in mid to late June. The one that came off Africa on June 22nd later had a TCG (Bonnie). It then became absolutely dead quiet in the MDR due to dry wave after dry wave. It was over 2 months before the next AEW emerged from Africa that lead to an MDR TCG! On Aug 25th, a disorganized AEW came off of Africa. Convection didn't increase until Sep 1st, which then lead to Earl.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Atla ... ane_season

2) 2023: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tracks/tracks-at-2023.png

2023 had two TS's form in the MDR!
- On June 15th, an AEW came off Africa that lead to Bret on June 19th.
- On June 18th, an AEW came off Africa that lead to Cindy on June 22nd.
- It took til Aug 13th for the next AEW to emerge from Africa that later produced an MDR TCG. That one became TD 6 on Aug 19th and later became Gert.

https://simple.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_ ... ane_season

So, IF 2024 were to turn out similar to 2022 and 2023, the MDR may go quiet for quite awhile after an initially unusually active period in June.
Opinions on this?


Just going to add a little correction that AEWs did continue through July and August in 2022, you can see all of them documented in the 2022 Tropical Waves thread (thanks Luiz for taking the time to do it every year):

https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?p=2972502#p2972502

The reason July and August went dead was because of the constant wavebreaking off the east coast from the gradient between the warm blob and the cold pool in open Atlantic (this is also discussed in CSU's 2022 post season summary) which introduced shear and dry air into the MDR. The AEWs themselves never stopped.

Or maybe you were saying the same and something got lost but figured I would clarify as I read that as there werent any waves between July and August.
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Re: 2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

#1239 Postby LarryWx » Wed Jun 12, 2024 1:58 pm

skyline385 wrote:
LarryWx wrote:


Adrian,
We'll see. June of both 2022 and 2023 had unusually well developed waves coming off of Africa. As a result a good number of S2K posts in June of those two years were similar. But for both years there was about a 2 month long period afterward for which no emerging from Africa AEW later lead to a TCG:

1) 2022: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tracks/tracks-at-2022.png

2022 had two well developed AEWs in mid to late June. The one that came off Africa on June 22nd later had a TCG (Bonnie). It then became absolutely dead quiet in the MDR due to dry wave after dry wave. It was over 2 months before the next AEW emerged from Africa that lead to an MDR TCG! On Aug 25th, a disorganized AEW came off of Africa. Convection didn't increase until Sep 1st, which then lead to Earl.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Atla ... ane_season

2) 2023: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tracks/tracks-at-2023.png

2023 had two TS's form in the MDR!
- On June 15th, an AEW came off Africa that lead to Bret on June 19th.
- On June 18th, an AEW came off Africa that lead to Cindy on June 22nd.
- It took til Aug 13th for the next AEW to emerge from Africa that later produced an MDR TCG. That one became TD 6 on Aug 19th and later became Gert.

https://simple.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_ ... ane_season

So, IF 2024 were to turn out similar to 2022 and 2023, the MDR may go quiet for quite awhile after an initially unusually active period in June.
Opinions on this?


Just going to add a little correction that AEWs did continue through July and August in 2022, you can see all of them documented in the 2022 Tropical Waves thread (thanks Luiz for taking the time to do it every year):

https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?p=2972502#p2972502

The reason July and August went dead was because of the constant wavebreaking off the east coast from the gradient between the warm blob and the cold pool in open Atlantic (this is also discussed in CSU's 2022 post season summary) which introduced shear and dry air into the MDR. The AEWs themselves never stopped.

Or maybe you were saying the same and something got lost but figured I would clarify as I read that as there werent any waves between July and August.


Oh, I fully realize that AEWs didn’t stop. I didn’t think they ever really stop during the bulk of hurricane season. I’m saying they were there as usual but all were essentially benign during the 2 month periods. Most AEWs are benign (don’t lead to TCG in any season), of course. The point is that they weren’t benign in part of both Junes, but then they went back to the more typical benign for the subsequent two months. The atypical very active June waves were just temporary.
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Re: 2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

#1240 Postby Teban54 » Thu Jun 13, 2024 4:02 am

ScottNAtlanta wrote:
LarryWx wrote:
ScottNAtlanta wrote:I think the difference is that those seasons featured quite a bit of dry mid level air. That doesn't seem to be the case so far this year. Also, the fact that it still has so much convection and hasn't fallen apart yet is significant.


Scott,
Thanks for your reply.
1) Was there dry mid level air dominating during those active periods of June of 2022 and 2023?
2) The precursor AEWs to Bonnie of 2022 and Bret/Cindy of 2023 also held convection after emerging from Africa.

As I recall...Bonnie struggled the entire time it moved over the Atlantic and really didn't get going until it was about to cross over to the Pacific. I'm pretty sure with Bonnie it was dry air. Thunderstorms would build only to collapse.

Dry air wasn't the culprit for Bonnie. The main reason was that it was moving so fast (typical for June) that it couldn't close off a circulation.
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