Low pressure to organize over the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico (Is INVEST 91L)

[kevin]

We had to wait a bit, but it looks like it's really starting now. Another lemon.

2. Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure could form over the weekend across the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for some slow development early next week while the
system moves slowly westward or west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

[chaser1]

A bump-up to 30%-40% by this evening wouldn't surprise me.

[REDHurricane]

Lucky that the center of circulation for this system appears like it'll be stuck over land for the majority of its existence, or else we might be seeing a strong hurricane form instead of what will likely be a strong TS at most

[zzzh]

Some models think the system will form from the monsoon trough in SW Caribbean, others have a crossover from EPAC.

[kevin]

Model runs for this system.

06z GFS = 996 mb TS, Mexico landfall, +168 hours

00z ICON = 996 mb TS, Mexico landfall, +180 hours
00z ECMWF = 994 mb TS, Mexico landfall, +180 hours
00z ECMWF-AIFS = 1000 mb TS/TD, Texas landfall, +198 hours
00z CMC = 994 mb TS, Mexico landfall, +192 hours

[skyline385]

Some models think the system will form from the monsoon trough in SW Caribbean, others have a crossover from EPAC.

It looks to be a WWB responsible for it.

[wxman57]

With all four globals (GFS, EC, CMC, ICON) in good agreement for a BoC system next Tue/Wed, I think chances are up quite a bit (maybe 70-80%). Good news is that it won't last long and should move inland into Mexico by late Wednesday. A "shortie" to start the year.

[Stratton23]

Even if it goes into mexico that moisture feed is getting funneled right into the Texas coast, if anything we dont want the low to consolidate as that would pull moisture away from us, ill gladly take heavy rain

[ATXAG95]

This thing needs to hit the border and run up the Rio Grande to replenish Falcon and Amistad.

[wxman57]

12Z GFS is farther south, inland south of Tampico Tuesday night. This system has a much better shot at briefly becoming a TS than 90L. I'd say maybe as high as 70-80%. Just enhanced rain for Texas. South Texas could use the rain.

[Stratton23]

12z GEFS has more members showing development on the east side of the yucatan, different than its operational run, that can change the track by a good deal

[cycloneye]

GEFS ensembles.

[cycloneye]

Up to 30%.

Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure could form over the weekend across the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for some slow development early next week while the
system moves slowly westward or west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

[bohai]

We are desperate in south and s central Texas. One of our lakes is, Medina, is down to 2% of the normal level. We are about 50 mi NW of San Antonio, and the aquifer (subterranean) that we get our water from is at stage 4. So a dumping of rain would be extremely beneficial as long as it is not Harvey level rains.

[Bobbyh83]

We are desperate in south and s central Texas. One of our lakes is, Medina, is down to 2% of the normal level. We are about 50 mi NW of San Antonio, and the aquifer (subterranean) that we get our water from is at stage 4. So a dumping of rain would be extremely beneficial as long as it is not Harvey level rains.

Such a crazy gradient across the state. Trinity River has been above flood stage since April 28th I believe.

[Category5Kaiju]

Interesting historic tidbit: During 2010, which is oftentimes compared with this year, this happened in June.

[Astromanía]

I hope this gives lot of rain to northeast Mexico, we are in a constantly drougth, dams are in a extremely low levels, people are losing water service in many areas and the heat waves are not helping

[Astromanía]

Interesting historic tidbit: During 2010, which is oftentimes compared with this year, this happened in June.

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/2/25/Alex_2010-07-01_0202Z.png

Oh my beloved Alex, the worst natural disaster in monterrey history breaking rain records in the region, many people lost but the dams were full for a whole decade

[storm_in_a_teacup]

Does anyone know where the term 'lemon' for the yellow blobs on the map originate? It's cute but I'm curious.

[Category5Kaiju]

Does anyone know where the term 'lemon' for the yellow blobs on the map originate? It's cute but I'm curious.

I think it originated just based on the color. Hence orange for moderate and cherry for high development odds (though considering quite a few species of cherry are black or even yellow, I’d personally call high development odds strawberry)