Low pressure to organize over the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico (Is INVEST 91L)

[AnnularCane]

Interesting historic tidbit: During 2010, which is oftentimes compared with this year, this happened in June.

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/2/25/Alex_2010-07-01_0202Z.png

Wow...Alex looked that good?

[Category5Kaiju]

Interesting historic tidbit: During 2010, which is oftentimes compared with this year, this happened in June.

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/2/25/Alex_2010-07-01_0202Z.png

Wow...Alex looked that good?

110/946. Probably the best looking Atlantic Category 2 hurricane in recent memory. Though I'd argue that it may have briefly attained Category 3 status.

[wxman57]

NHC will continue to bump up odds to around 60-70% by Friday. Fortunately, all 12Z models agree with overnight runs, into Mexico south of Tampico. Just some increased moisture for Texas.

[AnnularCane]

Does anyone know where the term 'lemon' for the yellow blobs on the map originate? It's cute but I'm curious.

I've also heard the terms "banana" or "yellow squash" used, probably when the yellow blob in question is a long skinny one. Me, I tend to just stick with lemon.

[chaser1]

Does anyone know where the term 'lemon' for the yellow blobs on the map originate? It's cute but I'm curious.

"Originate"? I think I recall some weather enthusiast that happened to work for Chiquita Farms down in Costa Rica who one day posted some reference in the S2K Tropics tropics thread....
"hey, look at that big banana in the Caribbean approaching from the east that NHC just unpeeled in their 8:00 a.m. Tropical update?!"

Well, after some lighthearted humor by others one of the moderators corrected and enlightened the poster that bananas do not float AND certainly do not contain measurable liquid, therefore NHC would have never intended to use such a metaphor for their yellow blob meant to represent a weak tropical disturbance having nominal odds to further develop into a tropical cyclones. Two days later, flooding occurred primarily impacting Limo'n, a town in Eastern Costa Rica as a result of the Westward moving tropical disturbance. Other weak tropical waves continued to approach and impact Costa Rica that year and Tourism Officials from Costa Rica began tiring of the repetitive heavy rain events often saying with disdain "...oh great, here comes another Limo'n!". From that point on, the reference stuck and all NHC yellow labeled blobs have since essentially been referenced as "Lemons".

At least that's my story, and I'm sticking to it

[Nederlander]

Does anyone know where the term 'lemon' for the yellow blobs on the map originate? It's cute but I'm curious.

I've also heard the terms "banana" or "yellow squash" used, probably when the yellow blob in question is a long skinny one. Me, I tend to just stick with lemon.

And “avocado” for some of the SPC forecasts

[cycloneye]

Euro ensembles are bullish for BOC.

[ChrisH-UK]

THe Bay of Campeche does have a nasty tendency of been able to spin up storms out of nowhere due to its shape, position and hot waters. I wouldn't be surprised if it comes out more powerful than expected.

[cycloneye]

8 PM.

Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure could form this weekend over the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for some slow development of this system early next week
while it moves slowly westward or west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

[cycloneye]

There are uncertainties.

 https://x.com/WxTca/status/1801047706443354416

[chaser1]

There are uncertainties.

https://x.com/WxTca/status/1801047706443354416

Like spokes on a wheel.
Will we wind up with 2 named storms, 1 named storm & 1 TD, a single named storm, a single tropical depression, or simply nothing at all?

[DorkyMcDorkface]

00z CMC gets this down to sub-990mb.

[cycloneye]

Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form over the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a
tropical depression could form during the early or middle part of
next week while it moves slowly westward or west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

[aspen]

There are uncertainties.

https://x.com/WxTca/status/1801047706443354416

Reminds me a bit of Amanda/Cristobal back in 2020, both born out of the sample complex gyre.

[Stratton23]

12z Euro AIFS and 18z ICON have both shifted north, AIFS with a TS approaching baffin bay, ICON similar, but both show really heavy rains lashing the upper texas coast fwiw

[LarryWx]

12Z UKMET:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 162 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+162 : 19.7N 93.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 20.06.2024 168 19.9N 93.1W 1002 34

[lsuhurricane]

Larry, would tend to think that UKMET output is more associated with the next feature coming from the CAG, as shown in the GFS suite over the past few runs.

[LarryWx]

Does anyone know where the term 'lemon' for the yellow blobs on the map originate? It's cute but I'm curious.

I’m almost sure it was hurricane chaser Josh Morgerman. Back before he became a frequent chaser, he used to post regularly at AmericanWx back when he lived in the Los Angeles area. Soon after the triple color graphical TWOs were started (which was in late 00s), Josh started to refer to them over there as “lemon”, “mandarin”, and “cherry”. And now look how the idea spread so much!

[Stratton23]

Big shift north on the Euro, went from central mexico to far northern mexico, gotta watch this closely, landfall in texas is still in play

[Astromanía]

Wow 273 mm (10.5 in) of rain for me according to euro right now