Low pressure to organize over the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico (Is INVEST 91L)

[Stratton23]

06z Euro AIFS comes in around rockport tx as a tropical storm

[Tireman4]

From HGX AFD

TROPICAL...
Issued at 237 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

A broad area of low pressure is expected to materialize in the Bay
of Campeche by Monday or Tuesday. Global deterministic and
ensemble guidance suggest a building ridge to the north will steer
the low west to west-northwest towards northeastern Mexico,
possibly moving ashore by Wednesday or Thursday. As of 200AM CDT,
the National Hurricane Center has given this system a 40% chance
of developing into a tropical depression over the next 5 days.
Showers and thunderstorms along with gusty winds are expected to
extend well north of the low. Therefore, southeast Texas can
expect showers/thunderstorms along with gusty winds (especially
near the coast) even if the center of the low remains well to our
south and tracks into Mexico. The steepening gradient between the
low and a surface high over eastern CONUS will likely enhance an
east to east-southeast wind fetch across the Gulf, resulting in
hazardous seas, increasing rip current risks, and elevated tides.
Sunday-Thursday rainfall totals are expected to range from 3-6"
along and south of I-10, with 1-3" for areas farther north.
Locally heavier totals are possible.

It is worth mentioning that computer models often struggle with
tropical disturbances in the pre-development phase. In this case,
a cohesive disturbance has yet to materialize. Therefore, forecast
confidence will be on the low side until a more cohesive
disturbance forms. Given the uncertainty, it is strongly advised
that you keep up with the latest forecast updates.

[Tireman4]

From Matt Lanza (local pro met)


Monday & Tuesday
We expect scattered to potentially numerous showers and thunderstorms in the area on Monday and Tuesday afternoons, though it’s a bit soon to pin down exactly where these will be most likely. Think of the first couple days of the week as slightly juicier typical summer days. There could be a handful of stronger storms or localized heavy downpours. This should keep temperatures down a bit as well, mostly in the 80s to near 90 degrees.

Wednesday & Thursday
We are beginning to see decent model agreement that Tuesday night, Wednesday, and early Thursday will feature our highest rain chances, and with that will likely come some heavy rainfall. I think this is the timeframe where I would be watching closest for potential flash flooding. The trouble right now is that our models widely differ on where this occurs. Our typical physics-based models are focusing things on the entirety of the Texas coast, while our newer AI models favor Houston into Louisiana for the heaviest rainfall.

[Tireman4]

From Jeff Lindner...

Medium (50%) chance for development of a tropical system in the southern Gulf early next week. Regardless of any formation, tropical moisture and increasing rain chances, tides, seas and gusty winds will be possible along the TX coast. Stay tuned to forecasts #houwx #txwx

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/RyanMaue/status/1801617119291052409

[LarryWx]

The 12Z UKMET has no TCG in the GOM fwiw

[Stratton23]

12z GFS and CMC are completely awful runs, we get almost nothing

[Wampadawg]

12z GFS and CMC are completely awful runs, we get almost nothing

Looks like we will need this thingy to form to see what the results will be?

[Stratton23]

Wampadawg that is true, we preferably need the low to develop on the east or north side of the yucatan so it can gain more latitude before eventually turning west

[Wampadawg]

Does the new area of Orange now look wider and more of a circle, or is this a bad take

[TheAustinMan]

Central American Gyres are broad, messy, and complicated. Tropical cyclogenesis from a CAG is even more complicated. I wouldn't pay too much attention to model depictions of individual TC tracks from this gargantuan disturbance, because those paths are highly sensitive to which bundles of vorticity in the vorticity soup become dominant and where convection tends to cluster around. The only high probability outcome is that the constant stream of westerlies in the Eastern Pacific will probably be causing torrential rainfall on the coasts of southeastern Mexico, Guatemala, and El Salvador.

Things at the moment are a bit broad and still caught up in the overall gyre, so it's likely that none of the bundles of clouds that are currently present will organize into a tropical cyclone. There is plenty of convection in the western Caribbean this afternoon thanks to a trough - the same trough/boundary that contributed to the flooding rainfall in Florida. There used to be some model support for some development from this area, but that has since vanished for the most part. Strong upper-level winds from outflow originating from the rest of the CAG and a trough over the central US will probably keep that disturbance in check. However, it may track towards the northwest and bring Gulf moisture into the Texas and Louisiana coasts Sunday into early next week. As it relates to the rest of the CAG, this convection's main "role" is in coaxing the rest of the CAG ever so slightly northward. The more active this area is, the more it favors the CAG shifting more towards the Atlantic as opposed to being stuck over Central America. The entire northwestern lobe of the CAG will slowly move westward into the Bay of Campeche this weekend as the CAG as a whole coalesces over the Yucatan.

The first area to watch for possible tropical cyclogenesis will be the southwestern Caribbean, within the southeastern lobe of the CAG. We should see an increase in vorticity in this area this weekend as this lobe drifts north and then to the west, reaching the Yucatan Peninsula Monday into Tuesday. The 12Z CMC model run wants to kick off a TD as early as tomorrow morning, which is probably way too soon, but this lobe will play a key, if not central role in whatever comes of this whole CAG. The degree to which this lobe lifts north and west seems to determine how far the CAG extends into the Gulf of Mexico and Bay of Campeche. The more dominant this lobe is and the more north it can get, the more likely a TC will develop in the Atlantic, in my opinion. The southeastern lobe will either foster the dominant TC associated with the CAG, especially if something forms east of the Yucatan, or it may aid development closer to the middle of the CAG over the Bay of Campeche, as the GFS and ECMWF show.

If the southeastern lobe can't get things going early, then eyes shift towards the Bay of Campeche and Gulf of Tehuantepec / coastal Guatemala early next week. As the southeastern lobe moves farther north, westerlies will intensify in the eastern Pacific. There will definitely be an increase in vorticity in the eastern Pacific during this time. Models can be overeager at spawning a tropical cyclone in this area in such circumstances, but it remains to be seen whether there would be anything distinctly classifiable and consolidated in this area. Whatever does form, if it does, will likely be short lived. If there isn't already a storm associated with the southeastern lobe, and if that lobe is able to pull north enough to drag the CAG as a whole sufficiently far north, then that EPAC vorticity will work its way into the Bay of Campeche where it could help spawn a tropical cyclone around Tuesday/Wednesday. The curved coast of the bay has helped spin up tropical systems in the past, so this will certainly be a key area to monitor if the CAG isn't still buried over Central America.

Where a TC ends up will be contingent on where it forms. Where one would form, if one forms at all, remains a tricky proposition. Odds would increase for precipitation in Texas if the southeastern lobe swings farther north.

Remarkably, the CAG story doesn't end there. Elements of broad rotation could persist late next week, which may set up another round of possible tropical cyclogenesis, but that's a bit too far in the future to pass much judgement on.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

Source: Satellite and moisture data from SSEC RealEarth. Surface analysis plot from NHC/TAFB. Annotations mine.

[ChrisH-UK]

Now 50%

 https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1801677572759294417

[Category5Kaiju]

Until the models get a firm graps on how exactly this CAG will behave, I think we're going to see fluctuations between absolutely nothing and 2 hurricanes

[Stratton23]

Yeah the models are not even close to being in agreement lol

[Nimbus]

Quite a lot of convection in the NW Caribbean.
Is that an upper level low that is currently pulling moisture up through the Yucatan channel?
I'm waiting for something at the surface that looks more focused before I'm ready to jump.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

 https://x.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1801755411101716637

[Stratton23]

Major flood event for SE texas on the GFS at day 5, CMC shifted north significantly, landfall just south of brownsville, with rain bands lashing the entire texas coast and tropical storm force winds

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form over the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico early next week. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system,
and a tropical depression could form by the middle part of next week
while the system moves slowly westward or west-northwestward.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rains area likely to
occur over portions of southeastern Mexico and Central America
during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.


Forecaster Beven

[underthwx]

Sound like irregardless of a named system or not...some rains will fall...

[Wampadawg]

ICON has something to say To Texas