Surface trough east of the Bahamas (Is INVEST 92L)

[StormWeather]

2. Southwestern Atlantic Ocean:
An area of low pressure could form by the middle part of next week
a few hundred miles northeast of the central Bahamas. Some slow
development of this system is possible thereafter while the system
moves westward or west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

[floridasun]

2. Southwestern Atlantic Ocean:
An area of low pressure could form by the middle part of next week
a few hundred miles northeast of the central Bahamas. Some slow
development of this system is possible thereafter while the system
moves westward or west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

[StormWeather]

2. Southwestern Atlantic Ocean:
An area of low pressure could form by the middle part of next week
a few hundred miles northeast of the central Bahamas. Some slow
development of this system is possible thereafter while the system
moves westward or west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

i saw that so nhc looking at gfs and ECMWF

Certainly seems to be so. Quite the interesting system if it happens.

[Blown Away]

One 12z GFS and Euro run results in a 20% cone. Geez

[NDG]

One 12z GFS and Euro run results in a 20% cone. Geez

Three Euro runs and two GFS runs with some support from both ensembles.
20% for being within 5 days is good at this time.

[NDG]

Another look at the fairly aggressive 18z GFS.

[LarryWx]

One 12z GFS and Euro run results in a 20% cone. Geez

Three Euro runs and two GFS runs with some support from both ensembles.
20% for being within 5 days is good at this time.

Also, the 18Z ICON has a surface low nearly close off at the end of the run (hour 120) just offshore NE FL moving WNW toward Jacksonville. In addition, the 12Z UKMET has a TD form just off Brunswick, GA, at hour 150 moving NNE toward GA/SC line.

[jlauderdal]

Another look at the fairly aggressive 18z GFS.

A track away from SFL is a good thing.

[SFLcane]

Another look at the fairly aggressive 18z GFS.

https://media.giphy.com/media/v1.Y2lkPTc5MGI3NjExY2Jld3hxejcwamVxemdqdGc4em5tZjd3ejd4bzk4NWtvM2E3em13aCZlcD12MV9pbnRlcm5hbF9naWZfYnlfaWQmY3Q9Zw/cAsEmIOQdXlS8HVvFH/giphy.gif

A track away from SFL is a good thing.

For us in SFL none of those tracks give us any weather you wouldn’t even know its was making landfall we would be on the dry side with dry air rapping around it. Beach weather

[floridasun]

i wait untill we set up alarm we know how models runs are like from day to day let see by tues were it go or gfs giving ghosts other models too

[Category5Kaiju]

Wow. This is pretty unexpected. A possible westward-tracking system that hits Florida's east coast....in June? Yeah, you don't really see that often. This system wasn't even on models as recently as several days ago. It basically just appeared.

[LarryWx]

Wow. This is pretty unexpected. A possible westward-tracking system that hits Florida's east coast....in June? Yeah, you don't really see that often. This system wasn't even on models as recently as several days ago. It basically just appeared.

If a TD were to track into FL, GA, or SC from the E or SE, it might be the first to do so in June in 40 years (TD #1 of 1984 was last I’m aware of) though I’m not 100% sure there wasn’t another TD to do so since 1984. Unlikely based on my memory. If a TS were to do the same thing, it would be the first in June since 1909 per official records! So, climo says not to expect that though we’ll see based on increasing model support for something not too many days out.

I’m not counting hits from the S or SW.

[penguinzee]

We'll see how this develops of course, but I wouldn't mind the rain up here in Jax... depending on where this storm comes in, could be a BIG problem for downtown Jacksonville, with water pushing up the St. John's river. I didn't know that the GFS was in Halloween Scare Mode, that looks nasty! I hope the HWRF doesn't look that bad when it fires up on this system, we'll be in some trouble-just went and did some hurricane shopping (normal prep stuff while the sales were good) I don't want to dive into my hurricane snacks too early!

[LarryWx]

The ICON went from virtually nothing on the 12Z to a nearly closed off low on the 18Z to a TS on the 0Z. It landfalls as what I think is a TD (due to slight weakening) near Brunswick.

[floridasun]

wfor ch 4 models have it going close to south fl by end week their say we could get Heavy rain by than

[LarryWx]

0Z CMC, GFS, ICON all have a TC off the SE coast. But the 0Z UKMET, which had a TD on the 12Z, doesn’t.

[storminabox]

Another look at the fairly aggressive 18z GFS.

https://media.giphy.com/media/v1.Y2lkPTc5MGI3NjExY2Jld3hxejcwamVxemdqdGc4em5tZjd3ejd4bzk4NWtvM2E3em13aCZlcD12MV9pbnRlcm5hbF9naWZfYnlfaWQmY3Q9Zw/cAsEmIOQdXlS8HVvFH/giphy.gif

A track away from SFL is a good thing.

Yeah they do not need more rain. Very interested in this system. Likely we get the A and B storm this week.

[mantis83]

Another look at the fairly aggressive 18z GFS.

https://media.giphy.com/media/v1.Y2lkPTc5MGI3NjExY2Jld3hxejcwamVxemdqdGc4em5tZjd3ejd4bzk4NWtvM2E3em13aCZlcD12MV9pbnRlcm5hbF9naWZfYnlfaWQmY3Q9Zw/cAsEmIOQdXlS8HVvFH/giphy.gif

A track away from SFL is a good thing.

hopefully a repeating pattern away from sfl during the rest of the season, too much rain already

[LarryWx]

0Z Euro weaker so far vs 12Z.

[AJC3]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

2. Southwestern Atlantic Ocean:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form by midweek a few
hundred miles northeast of the central Bahamas. Environmental
conditions could be conducive for some development of this system
thereafter while it moves westward or west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.