Surface trough east of the Bahamas (Is INVEST 92L)

[LarryWx]

The 0Z GEFS is much more active and wetter for the offshore SE low than the prior runs.

[jlauderdal]

The 0Z GEFS is much more active and wetter for the offshore SE low than the prior runs.

Globals are not too excited; it looks like a needed rainmaker for NE Florida. SE FL on edge with any rain but we have a week to dry out and then can deal with 3-5 inches with minimal issues. Bigger picture, it continues to look very active later in the season, conditions, as we would expect in June, are not favorable for the development of a purely tropical system with some real intensity. 20-minute monthly run of the genny yesterday, adjustment on a downspout that didn't perform as needed last weds on a 9.7 inch day, 3 in/hr rate.

[AJC3]

Still 0/30

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

2. Southwestern Atlantic Ocean:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form by midweek a few hundred miles
northeast of the central Bahamas. Environmental conditions could be
conducive for some development of this system thereafter while it moves
westward or west-northwestward
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

[LarryWx]

The 0Z GEFS is much more active and wetter for the offshore SE low than the prior runs.

Globals are not too excited; it looks like a needed rainmaker for NE Florida. SE FL on edge with any rain but we have a week to dry out and then can deal with 3-5 inches with minimal issues. Bigger picture, it continues to look very active later in the season, conditions, as we would expect in June, are not favorable for the development of a purely tropical system with some real intensity. 20-minute monthly run of the genny yesterday, adjustment on a downspout that didn't perform as needed last weds on a 9.7 inch day, 3 in/hr rate.

Thankfully it is June rather than Aug/Sep. IF there is to be a landfall on the SE US this season, this is the time to get it over with (if this were to be the only one…who knows? I’m not predicting that.)

6Z update: ICON weaker than prior run and back to no closed low like the 18Z. GFS is also weaker than its prior run but still has a TD landfall at GA/FL border.

[TallyTracker]

I wouldn’t mind some rain here in eastern FL Panhandle to cool us off. The near 100 degree weather the past two weeks has dried out the swamp behind my house and we’re headed toward cracked ground conditions now!

[NDG]

At least the Euro and GFS are coming together with a consensus that it will probably be a weak system and impacts to S FL rainfall wise will be very minimal if any as they both now show a track towards NE FL.
As far as strength it will all depend how it interacts with the UL trough near it.

[Emmett_Brown]

Euro ensembles are not enthusiastic about development. Even though the SSTs across the basin are generally very warm, SSTs just NE of the Bahamas are just border line (currently 80-81F or so). From a FL back yard perspective, I am however interested in the nice pressure gradient setting up between the future low over the GOM and the high over the E Conus for this week. This wave/disturbance will be fun to track in whatever form it takes as it rides the fresh easterly flow that sets up.

[AJC3]

Looking at visible satellite, there's an elongated (WSW-ENE) vortmax embedded within the surface trough centered near 29N 69W, moving a little west of due south. This feature is 4-5 degrees west and a little south of where the GFS starts to somewhat consolidate the disturbance. It's subtle, but the overnight op-ECM showed more vorticity in that area than the GFS. While this vort could dampen out, with development centered farther east, it might indicate that whatever forms (assuming it doesn't stay an open trough) would develop and track a little farther SW, if it does, in fact, become the focus for development. This could shift the impacts (mainly heavy rain), which should be near and north of whatever center might form. Still looks like mainly NOFL and adjacent areas N/E will see the most weather with this. I'm just hoping to get some decent rainfall out of it here in central FL, seeing how dry we've been so far this year. The weak wave/low that crossed the state last week only dropped about an inch and a half of rain at my place. We were in a sucker hole of sorts, with much higher amounts surrounding us.

[cainjamin]

A good analogy for this storm would be TS Danny from 2021. Small storm surrounded by dry air that moved west under a strong ridge in mid/late June. It will be interesting to see if it manages to get into the Gulf. The Euro has been showing that off and on and the GFS has been trended that was as well.

[LarryWx]

Looking at visible satellite, there's an elongated (WSW-ENE) vortmax embedded within the surface trough centered near 29N 69W, moving a little west of due south. This feature is 4-5 degrees west and a little south of where the GFS starts to somewhat consolidate the disturbance. It's subtle, but the overnight op-ECM showed more vorticity in that area than the GFS. While this vort could dampen out, with development centered farther east, it might indicate that whatever forms (assuming it doesn't stay an open trough) would develop and track a little farther SW, if it does, in fact, become the focus for development. This could shift the impacts (mainly heavy rain), which should be near and north of whatever center might form. Still looks like mainly NOFL and adjacent areas N/E will see the most weather with this. I'm just hoping to get some decent rainfall out of it here in central FL, seeing how dry we've been so far this year. The weak wave/low that crossed the state last week, only dropped about an inch and a half of rain at my place. We were in a sucker hole of sorts, with much higher amounts surrounding us.

https://i.imgur.com/ou1clv2.jpeg

Tony,
You said “with development centered farther east…”. Did you mean further west?

12Z models:
-ICON has the low further west and this leads to a further SW track into C FL. It is a tad stronger than prior run but is still weak/likely not quite a TD.

-GFS similarly comes in further SW into C FL; similarly weak to 6Z with a TD

-CMC weaker than the already weak 0Z with nothing closed into SC (similar track to 0Z)

-UKMET no TC just like 0Z and unlike the TD that forms on yesterday’s 12Z just offshore Brunswick on Fri moving N to GA/SC border

[AJC3]

Looking at visible satellite, there's an elongated (WSW-ENE) vortmax embedded within the surface trough centered near 29N 69W, moving a little west of due south. This feature is 4-5 degrees west and a little south of where the GFS starts to somewhat consolidate the disturbance. It's subtle, but the overnight op-ECM showed more vorticity in that area than the GFS. While this vort could dampen out, with development centered farther east, it might indicate that whatever forms (assuming it doesn't stay an open trough) would develop and track a little farther SW, if it does, in fact, become the focus for development. This could shift the impacts (mainly heavy rain), which should be near and north of whatever center might form. Still looks like mainly NOFL and adjacent areas N/E will see the most weather with this. I'm just hoping to get some decent rainfall out of it here in central FL, seeing how dry we've been so far this year. The weak wave/low that crossed the state last week, only dropped about an inch and a half of rain at my place. We were in a sucker hole of sorts, with much higher amounts surrounding us.

https://i.imgur.com/ou1clv2.jpeg

Tony,
You said “with development centered farther east…”. Did you mean further west?

<snip>

What I meant is that the vort I highlighted could dampen out, with development occurring farther east as a result (closer to the op-GFS location).

[chaser1]

Looking at visible satellite, there's an elongated (WSW-ENE) vortmax embedded within the surface trough centered near 29N 69W, moving a little west of due south. This feature is 4-5 degrees west and a little south of where the GFS starts to somewhat consolidate the disturbance. It's subtle, but the overnight op-ECM showed more vorticity in that area than the GFS. While this vort could dampen out, with development centered farther east, it might indicate that whatever forms (assuming it doesn't stay an open trough) would develop and track a little farther SW, if it does, in fact, become the focus for development. This could shift the impacts (mainly heavy rain), which should be near and north of whatever center might form. Still looks like mainly NOFL and adjacent areas N/E will see the most weather with this. I'm just hoping to get some decent rainfall out of it here in central FL, seeing how dry we've been so far this year. The weak wave/low that crossed the state last week only dropped about an inch and a half of rain at my place. We were in a sucker hole of sorts, with much higher amounts surrounding us.

https://i.imgur.com/ou1clv2.jpeg

I clearly live adjacent to the same dry Central Florida "sucker hole" as yourself. This last rain event was far less broadly impactful (for some C. Florida area's) than what I would have
anticipated.

[LarryWx]

A good analogy for this storm would be TS Danny from 2021. Small storm surrounded by dry air that moved west under a strong ridge in mid/late June. It will be interesting to see if it manages to get into the Gulf. The Euro has been showing that off and on and the GFS has been trended that was as well.

Thanks for posting this. I missed this one in my list of TCs hitting the SE US in May/June from the E or SE. Danny of 2021 was the only June TS since at least 1851 to landfall on SC from the E or SE.

[AJC3]

<snip>

12Z models:
-ICON has the low further west and this leads to a further SW track into C FL. It is a tad stronger than prior run but is still weak/likely not quite a TD.

-GFS similarly comes in further SW into C FL; similarly weak to 6Z with a TD

-CMC weaker than the already weak 0Z with nothing closed into SC (similar track to 0Z)

-UKMET no TC just like 0Z and unlike the TD that forms on yesterday’s 12Z just offshore Brunswick on Fri moving N to GA/SC border

And the GFS did so while maintaining initial development well to the east of the feature I posted about. Interesting.

[LarryWx]

12Z GEFS mean is further south, less active, and not as wet as prior two runs; sort of consistent with changes on its operational

[jlauderdal]

<snip>

12Z models:
-ICON has the low further west and this leads to a further SW track into C FL. It is a tad stronger than prior run but is still weak/likely not quite a TD.

-GFS similarly comes in further SW into C FL; similarly weak to 6Z with a TD

-CMC weaker than the already weak 0Z with nothing closed into SC (similar track to 0Z)

-UKMET no TC just like 0Z and unlike the TD that forms on yesterday’s 12Z just offshore Brunswick on Fri moving N to GA/SC border

And the GFS did so while maintaining initial development well to the east of the feature I posted about. Interesting.

Do you have your plan in place?

[cycloneye]

Tentative mission for Tuesday afternoon.

POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL INVEST EAST OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR
25.5N 68.0W FOR 18/1800Z.

[cycloneye]

2 PM.

Southwestern Atlantic Ocean:
A trough or an area of low pressure is forecast to form by midweek
a few hundred miles northeast of the central Bahamas. Environmental
conditions could be conducive for some development of this system
thereafter while it moves westward or west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

[AJC3]

And the GFS did so while maintaining initial development well to the east of the feature I posted about. Interesting.

Do you have your plan in place?

You can take the meteorologist out of the preparedness talks, but you can't take the preparedness out of the meteorologist. TL/DR version: Yes

[jlauderdal]

And the GFS did so while maintaining initial development well to the east of the feature I posted about. Interesting.

Do you have your plan in place?

You can take the meteorologist out of the preparedness talks, but you can't take the preparedness out of the meteorologist. TL/DR version: Yes

Setting a good example for the rest!