Low pressure to organize over the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico (Is INVEST 91L)

[Wampadawg]

2 PM= 30/70.

Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A large area of disturbed weather is located over Central America,
the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, and the adjacent waters of the
northwestern Caribbean Sea. A broad area of low pressure is
forecast to form from this system over the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico on Monday or Tuesday. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for subsequent gradual development of the low, and a
tropical depression or tropical storm could form by midweek while
it moves slowly westward or west-northwestward.

Regardless of development, several days of heavy rainfall are
expected across portions of southern Mexico and Central America, and
these rains are likely to cause life-threatening flooding and flash
flooding. Locally heavy rainfall is also expected to spread over
portions of the northwestern coast of the Gulf of Mexico by the
middle of the week. In addition, gale warnings have been issued
for portions of the Gulf of Mexico, and more information on these
is available in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Is this the first Code Red of the Season?

[Teban54]

2 PM= 30/70.

Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A large area of disturbed weather is located over Central America,
the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, and the adjacent waters of the
northwestern Caribbean Sea. A broad area of low pressure is
forecast to form from this system over the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico on Monday or Tuesday. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for subsequent gradual development of the low, and a
tropical depression or tropical storm could form by midweek while
it moves slowly westward or west-northwestward.

Regardless of development, several days of heavy rainfall are
expected across portions of southern Mexico and Central America, and
these rains are likely to cause life-threatening flooding and flash
flooding. Locally heavy rainfall is also expected to spread over
portions of the northwestern coast of the Gulf of Mexico by the
middle of the week. In addition, gale warnings have been issued
for portions of the Gulf of Mexico, and more information on these
is available in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Is this the first Code Red of the Season?

Yes. Unless I'm mistaken, it's the first one in the NHC's entire area of responsibility, meaning EPAC hasn't had a cherry either.

[CrazyC83]

A bit surprised they haven't gone with 91L yet especially since Recon is planned.

[cycloneye]

A bit surprised they haven't gone with 91L yet especially since Recon is planned.

Maybe they are waiting for the circulation from Invest 90E to go northward inland?

[Wampadawg]

Wonder what Wxman’s latest take on this system is?

[Wampadawg]

Wonder what Wxman’s latest take on this system is?

As well as all the Pros and folks that have been around for awhile, this thread seems a little slow

[floridasun]

i think it done deal that be next system first name system by Monday afternoon when plane fly in or by tue

[South Texas Storms]

It looks likely that we'll see either a tropical depression or weak tropical storm make landfall in northeastern Mexico by mid week. Main threat should be heavy rainfall, which may spread as far north as central Texas.

[Cpv17]

It looks likely that we'll see either a tropical depression or weak tropical storm make landfall in northeastern Mexico by mid week. Main threat should be heavy rainfall, which may spread as far north as central Texas.

I’m not so sure about that. I’m thinking a center could form further north closer to the convection and we could get a landfall somewhere between Port O’Connor to Baffin Bay.

[Gums]

Salute!

Gotta go with cycloneye and watch thatother disturbance first...bad news is the new guy may start heading further north and east than if the other system wasn't there.

Gums sends..

[South Texas Storms]

It looks likely that we'll see either a tropical depression or weak tropical storm make landfall in northeastern Mexico by mid week. Main threat should be heavy rainfall, which may spread as far north as central Texas.

I’m not so sure about that. I’m thinking a center could form further north closer to the convection and we could get a landfall somewhere between Port O’Connor to Baffin Bay.

That's very possible. I think the most likely solution though is a track farther south into northeastern Mexico. Although the landfall point probably won't matter much with much of the heavier rain extending well north of the center.

[Wampadawg]

Icon run after run is singing the Steve Earl tune,
“Heading into Texas with the Hammer Down” lol

[jaguars_22]

Looks like a slingshot effect with this system. A low will form further north on the north side of the Yucatan and the one coming out of Pacific. Could be a double surge of moisture for Texas… this could suprise some people and get a lower pressure but with competing centers it will be hard to come together. For once dry air won’t be a issue here in Texas

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/MatthewCappucci/status/1802456180209377458

[cycloneye]

Levi Cowan video.

 https://x.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1802463571575800253

[Portastorm]

Areas of southeast Texas are still flooded by earlier spring rains and haven't recovered from those events. I'm very concerned about copious amounts of tropical moisture falling on those same areas and making a bad situation even worse.

If anyone is asking, I'd gladly take some of that tropical moisture along the I-35 corridor for Austin and San Antonio.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Something's definitely trying to rotate down here...

[sphelps8681]

I live in Lumberton Tx 20 mins from Beaumont. We have been getting some bad weather lately here in the area. So great more rain if this storm becomes a TD or TS. Thanks for the updates.

[Cpv17]

Areas of southeast Texas are still flooded by earlier spring rains and haven't recovered from those events. I'm very concerned about copious amounts of tropical moisture falling on those same areas and making a bad situation even worse.

If anyone is asking, I'd gladly take some of that tropical moisture along the I-35 corridor for Austin and San Antonio.

This is very true, but many of those south of I-10 haven’t gotten much the past couple months. I’ve only had 3” since the start of May.

[Cpv17]

I live in Lumberton Tx 20 mins from Beaumont. We have been getting some bad weather lately here in the area. So great more rain if this storm becomes a TD or TS. Thanks for the updates.

Lumberton almost always gets plenty of rain. Very rarely is lack of rain an issue there.