How many named storms will form in July?

[cycloneye]

Making this July poll about how many named storms will form. The poll will close on June 30th at 5:52 PM EDT.

[skyline385]

Went with 6 or more, I am going all in on my season activity forecast. I still think this season has potential to really get going once the switch flips which will likely be earlier than typical climo this year with the record +AMO and EPAC shutdown from Nina/-PDO.

[AtlanticWind]

Went with 3 , predicting 1 will be a major Hurricane.

[ElectricStorm]

Also went with 3, two TS and a Cat 1 hurricane

[MahFL2024]

I will go highish and say 4.

[chaser1]

I'll bite. Sure was leaning between 4-5 named storms, but finally settled on 3 as well.

[jlauderdal]

3

[CrazyC83]

3, all tropical storms. I think we'll see a bunch of weak stuff initially as shear still seems to be an issue and SAL could be an issue, but the warm water means it won't take much to get a quickie storm.

[WiscoWx02]

I went with 0…my reasoning is posted in the 2024 Indicators discussion

[Category5Kaiju]

3. Two somewhat weak storms, and then at the end of the month, a Category 5 or high-end Category 4 that rivals Emily and Dennis in pressure.

I'm still thinking the vast bulk of activity will happen in August onwards.

[underthwx]

good morning yall....I choose 5...bc its predicted to be active this year...so 5 seems doable?...

[penguinzee]

Chose 2 here, though if shear calms down, it could easily be more, with the boiling ocean we've got...

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Most Julys in recent memory (save for 2020) have been quiet...but I'll get a little bullish and say we buck the trend this year with 3. I think one of those will be a cat 1 or 2 hurricane in the western Atlantic. Doubtful of any majors or anything.

[CFLHurricane]

I voted for one since even a singular named storm makes for an active July. The real season doesn’t kick off until the third week of August and this year will be no different. Heck we’ll probably even get extra “season dead” hand wringing given the heightened expectations.

[StormWeather]

Most Julys in recent memory (save for 2020) have been quiet...but I'll get a little bullish and say we buck the trend this year with 3. I think one of those will be a cat 1 or 2 hurricane in the western Atlantic. Doubtful of any majors or anything.

Julys since 1979:

1979: 7 TD (2 of the 7 became TS, 1 of those 2 of the 7 became a HU)
1980: 1 TD
1981: 2 TD (Bret persisted from June, notes but not counted )
1982: None
1983: 2 TD
1984: 1 TD
1985: 2 NS (1 TS, 1 HU)
1986: 1 TD
1987: None
1988: None (second time in a row)
1989: 2 NS (1 TS, 1 HU)
1990: 3 NS (2 TS, 1 HU)
1991: 1 NS (2 TD of which one became a NS)
1992: 1 TD
1993: None
1994: 2 TD (1 NS)
1995: 4 TS (4th storm would become a HU in the early days of August)
1996: 2 NS (2 HU, 1 MH)
1997: 5 TD (4 out of 5 TD became NS, 2 TS out of the 4 became HU)
1998: 1 NS (1 TS)
1999: 1 TD
2000: None
2001: 1 TD
2002: 1 NS (1 TS)
2003: 4 TD (2 NS, 2 HU) (Bill persisted over from June, thus is noted but not counted)
2004: 1 NS (First storm of the season formed on July 31, became the season’s first hurricane and major hurricane in early August)
2005: 5 NS (2 TS, 3 HU and 2 MH) (most active hurricane season at the time)
2006: 3 NS (3 TS)
2007: 1 NS (1 NS)
2008: 3 NS (1 TS, 2 HU, 1 MH)
2009: None
2010: 2 TD, 1 NS (1 TS)
2011: 3 NS (3 TS)
2012: None
2013: 2 NS (2 TS)
2014: 2 TD (1 of 2 TD became the first TS and the first hurricane)
2015: 1 NS (1 TS)
2016: None
2017: 3 TD (2 TS)
2018: 2 NS (2 HU)
2019: 2 TD (1 of the 2 TD became a TS and the first hurricane)
2020: 6 TD (5 NS, 1 HU) (Isaias became a hurricane in August)
2021: 1 NS (5th TS and 1st hurricane)
2022: 2 NS (2 TS)
2023: 1 NS (5th TS (counting the unnamed SS) and 1st hurricane)

Out of the years since 1979 only eight seasons have not had even a tropical depression in July.

Those seasons are 1982, 1987, 1988, 1993, 2000, 2009, 2012 and 2016.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Most Julys in recent memory (save for 2020) have been quiet...but I'll get a little bullish and say we buck the trend this year with 3. I think one of those will be a cat 1 or 2 hurricane in the western Atlantic. Doubtful of any majors or anything.

Julys since 1979:

1979: 7 TD (2 of the 7 became TS, 1 of those 2 of the 7 became a HU)
1980: 1 TD
1981: 2 TD (Bret persisted from June, notes but not counted )
1982: None
1983: 2 TD
1984: 1 TD
1985: 2 NS (1 TS, 1 HU)
1986: 1 TD
1987: None
1988: None (second time in a row)
1989: 2 NS (1 TS, 1 HU)
1990: 3 NS (2 TS, 1 HU)
1991: 1 NS (2 TD of which one became a NS)
1992: 1 TD
1993: None
1994: 2 TD (1 NS)
1995: 4 TS (4th storm would become a HU in the early days of August)
1996: 2 NS (2 HU, 1 MH)
1997: 5 TD (4 out of 5 TD became NS, 2 TS out of the 4 became HU)
1998: 1 NS (1 TS)
1999: 1 TD
2000: None
2001: 1 TD
2002: 1 NS (1 TS)
2003: 4 TD (2 NS, 2 HU) (Bill persisted over from June, thus is noted but not counted)
2004: 1 NS (First storm of the season formed on July 31, became the season’s first hurricane and major hurricane in early August)
2005: 5 NS (2 TS, 3 HU and 2 MH) (most active hurricane season at the time)
2006: 3 NS (3 TS)
2007: 1 NS (1 NS)
2008: 3 NS (1 TS, 2 HU, 1 MH)
2009: None
2010: 2 TD, 1 NS (1 TS)
2011: 3 NS (3 TS)
2012: None
2013: 2 NS (2 TS)
2014: 2 TD (1 of 2 TD became the first TS and the first hurricane)
2015: 1 NS (1 TS)
2016: None
2017: 3 TD (2 TS)
2018: 2 NS (2 HU)
2019: 2 TD (1 of the 2 TD became a TS and the first hurricane)
2020: 6 TD (5 NS, 1 HU) (Isaias became a hurricane in August)
2021: 1 NS (5th TS and 1st hurricane)
2022: 2 NS (2 TS)
2023: 1 NS (5th TS (counting the unnamed SS) and 1st hurricane)

Out of the years since 1979 only eight seasons have not had even a tropical depression in July.

Those seasons are 1982, 1987, 1988, 1993, 2000, 2009, 2012 and 2016.

By "recent years" I was referring to the past five seasons or so.

Additionally, I was really only taking into consideration storms that formed solely during the month of July, rather than storms that formed in June and carried over like Elsa.

[cycloneye]

Good participation so far with 51 as of this post. Those who have not voted yet, do so as the poll will close on June 30 at 5:52 PM.

[Pas_Bon]

I will provide my guess on July 31 or Aug 1

[NDG]

I am going with 4

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Looks like voters are expecting a way above-average July!