Models should have a much better handle of the system after recon
https://x.com/JeremyDeHart53d/status/1802730092604396017
ATL: ALBERTO - Models
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skyline385
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ATL: ALBERTO - Models
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
Hey sky. Splited your post from the main 91L discussion thread to have the models one.
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skyline385
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
cycloneye wrote:Hey sky. Splited your post from the main 91L discussion thread to have the models one.
Thanks, makes sense to have a model thread now.
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jaguars_22
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
The HMON model shows this getting to 976mb and hitting Tampico….
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
jaguars_22 wrote:The HMON model shows this getting to 976mb and hitting Tampico….
Hopefully, the models get good data from the dropsondes.
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StormWeather
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ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone ONE - Discussion
Ah yes, models expect the system’s remnants to trek across Mexico and enter the Eastern Pacific
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Just your average cyclone tracker
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Cyclones experienced;
Debby 24’
Re: ATL: PTC-ONE - Models
0Z UKMET: a little further S/still TS
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 22.5N 94.0W
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 19.06.2024 36 22.5N 94.0W 999 31
0000UTC 20.06.2024 48 22.1N 95.5W 998 35
1200UTC 20.06.2024 60 23.0N 98.4W 1000 38
0000UTC 21.06.2024 72 CEASED TRACKING
Quote
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 22.5N 94.0W
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 19.06.2024 36 22.5N 94.0W 999 31
0000UTC 20.06.2024 48 22.1N 95.5W 998 35
1200UTC 20.06.2024 60 23.0N 98.4W 1000 38
0000UTC 21.06.2024 72 CEASED TRACKING
Quote
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone ONE - Discussion
06z GFS intensifies this into a 50 kt 996 mbar TS in the next 24 hours before landfall in 30 hours.
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: PTC-ONE - Models
Both GFS and ECMWF have nailed what is going on now with PTC becomming TS Alberto in a couple of hours.
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Re: ATL: ALBERTO - Models
An overview of the 06z hurricane model runs for Alberto.
True intensity at 15z today (NHC)
Alberto / 995 mb / 35 kt
06z HWRF
Intensity at 15z: 998 mb / 35 kt
Intensity at landfall (+24 hr): 994 mb / 42 kt
06z HMON
Intensity at 15z: 995 mb / 42 kt
Intensity at landfall (+21 hr): 991 mb / 43 kt
06z HAFS-A
Intensity at 15z: 991 mb / 41 kt
Intensity at landfall (+24 hr): 990 mb / 52 kt
06z HAFS-B
Intensity at 15z: 995 mb / 38 kt
Intensity at landfall (+27 hr): 981 mb / 56 kt
06z GFS
Intensity at 15z: 997 mb / 35 kt
Intensity at landfall (+30 hr): 997 mb / 47 kt
06z ECMWF
Intensity at 15z: 999 mb / 31 kt
Intensity at landfall (+27 hr): 998 mb / 37 kt
Average accounted for biases in current intensity
Model-based intensity at landfall: 991 mb / 44 kt
True intensity at 15z today (NHC)
Alberto / 995 mb / 35 kt
06z HWRF
Intensity at 15z: 998 mb / 35 kt
Intensity at landfall (+24 hr): 994 mb / 42 kt
06z HMON
Intensity at 15z: 995 mb / 42 kt
Intensity at landfall (+21 hr): 991 mb / 43 kt
06z HAFS-A
Intensity at 15z: 991 mb / 41 kt
Intensity at landfall (+24 hr): 990 mb / 52 kt
06z HAFS-B
Intensity at 15z: 995 mb / 38 kt
Intensity at landfall (+27 hr): 981 mb / 56 kt
06z GFS
Intensity at 15z: 997 mb / 35 kt
Intensity at landfall (+30 hr): 997 mb / 47 kt
06z ECMWF
Intensity at 15z: 999 mb / 31 kt
Intensity at landfall (+27 hr): 998 mb / 37 kt
Average accounted for biases in current intensity
Model-based intensity at landfall: 991 mb / 44 kt
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