ATL: ALBERTO - Remnants - Discussion

[chaser1]

Looking at HR vis sat loop this morning the CoC appears to still be inland, just south of Ciudad del Carmen, unless that's a low to mid level circulation.
Recon later today should clarify it for us.

https://media.giphy.com/media/v1.Y2lkPTc5MGI3NjExcGltd2p3bWk5Y3llNXM0ZmQyamltYW5kaW56bW54Mm9icDR3cGlqNCZlcD12MV9pbnRlcm5hbF9naWZfYnlfaWQmY3Q9Zw/eCseSDzqQQfpOoHK7I/giphy.gif

Yep, that's what i'm seeing. I'm not seeing at secondary rotation from either "double egg-yolk" areas of convection and the point that you identified (18.0N & 91.5W) appears to be the COC with very clear rotation around that point

[Beef Stew]

Reminds me a lot of 2020’s Cristobal so far in terms of where vorticity is consolidating from the gyre. I do think we get Alberto out of this, but given the nature of CAG systems and with limited time over water, I don’t there’s enough time for it to develop much past a 35-40 kt system.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/cyclonicwx/status/1802718505181086138

[chaser1]

If that fairly tight center of the MLC was only a few hours from tasting salt water, I'd anticipate faster deepening then any models are showing and a potential of a moderate to strong TS to potentially make landfall just south of Brownsville. As it stands though, I hardly see any net motion. I could see a LLC suddenly rotating northward into the eastern side of that "left yolk" of convection but only if the MLC were broader and already in the BOC. I think the MLC is fairly well defined and just not sure if/when it'll emerge over water

[HurricaneBrain]

Are we still making separate threads for model runs? Didn't see a models thread for 91L.

[sphelps8681]

Starting to get some light rain right now and more to come here in Lumberton Tx.

[cycloneye]

Are we still making separate threads for model runs? Didn't see a models thread for 91L.

91L models thread is now up.

https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopi ... 0#p3067130

[cycloneye]

2 PM: It may be PTC later this afternoon or evening.

Southwestern Gulf of Mexico (AL91):
Satellite and surface observations indicate that a broad area of
low pressure is located over the Bay of Campeche with winds of
35-40 mph occurring in an area well to the northeast of the center
over the southern Gulf of Mexico. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression or
tropical storm is likely to form by midweek while the low moves
slowly west-northwestward toward the western Gulf coast.

Regardless of development, several more days of heavy rainfall are
expected across portions of southern Mexico and Central America, and
these rains are likely to cause life-threatening flooding and flash
flooding. Locally heavy rainfall is also expected to spread over
portions of Texas and Louisiana by the middle of the week. In
addition, gale warnings have been issued for portions of the Gulf of
Mexico, and more information on those warnings is available in High
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. Interests
along the western and northwestern Gulf coasts should monitor the
progress of this system, as tropical storm watches and warnings may
be required for portions of this area later this afternoon or
tonight. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
currently en route to investigate the system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

[ScottNAtlanta]

That LLC is going to be offshore any minute now, and looking at the low level cloud movement the more northern feature is trying to develop a circulation but the one to the south seems a lot stronger and is undercutting the ability of the northern one to get a western component.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/TreyceJonesWX/status/1802766552623992981

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track: 35kt, 1001 mbs and at 20.0N.

AL, 91, 2024061718, , BEST, 0, 200N, 932W, 35, 1001, DB

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal912024.dat

[skyline385]

Recon found 1002mb at the surface on a sonde (#5) decently far from the center

[Hurricaneman]

Who knows, this could be a TS right now

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Looks like it’s almost there

[jaguars_22]

If this storm does get stronger wouldn’t it go more poleward? Since there is a weakness to the north?

[Stratton23]

In this case no, stronger system would go further south, we need this thing to stay on the weaker/ broader side, if it gets strong, alot of central and se texas would be robbed of the moisture as it would consolidate around a more compact system

[Cpv17]

If this storm does get stronger wouldn’t it go more poleward? Since there is a weakness to the north?

The latest GFS gives you nearly 2 feet of rain.

[ElectricStorm]

Looks solid, should become Alberto I would think. Considering it's June, I doubt it gets much stronger than 35-45kts. Around 1000mb on recon currently

[Sciencerocks]

I think 11am tomorrow it will be upgraded to alberto and max out around 50 knots and make landfall in texas.

[jaguars_22]

Landfall will be Tampico in my opinion!