ATL: ALBERTO - Remnants - Discussion

[skyline385]

PTC coming

[wxman57]

Just a trof axis found by the plane, as I expected. These monsoonal gyres take a long time to organize. It may have a couple of circulation centers tomorrow. Models are all over the place with the one or two centers. Will be hard to get more than 40 kts out of it. Main threat is rain. I'd be surprised if the NHC didn't issue PTC One advisories over the next hour. It's within 48 hours of taking TS wind to near the coast.

[Sciencerocks]

 https://x.com/WxcenterNazario/status/1802777138472607881

[cycloneye]

NHC will initiate advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone One, located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, at 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC).

[StormWeather]

NHC will initiate advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone One, located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, at 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC).

Finally, a sign of life in the northern hemisphere.

I worry for the people in the path of this though.

[StormWeather]

[StormWeather]

45 mph peak

[Wthrfan]

Just a trof axis found by the plane, as I expected. These monsoonal gyres take a long time to organize. It may have a couple of circulation centers tomorrow. Models are all over the place with the one or two centers. Will be hard to get more than 40 kts out of it. Main threat is rain. I'd be surprised if the NHC didn't issue PTC One advisories over the next hour. It's within 48 hours of taking TS wind to near the coast.

Still looking like some beneficial rains for Central Texas?

[cycloneye]

[skyline385]

As usual, CA gets hit the worst with rainfall

[Nimbus]

Why did the 12Z Euro track this north?
Houston doesn't need the rain south Texas does?

[LearnedHat]

Not sure if this is the thread to place your order or not . . . but I need 3.5" of rain in southwest Gillespie county - if possible I need it over 72 hours with rates not to exceed 0.30"/hr and winds under 20 mph. If you just can't make the wind thing happen . . . try to limit it to 30mph. Thanks.

[South Texas Storms]

Just a trof axis found by the plane, as I expected. These monsoonal gyres take a long time to organize. It may have a couple of circulation centers tomorrow. Models are all over the place with the one or two centers. Will be hard to get more than 40 kts out of it. Main threat is rain. I'd be surprised if the NHC didn't issue PTC One advisories over the next hour. It's within 48 hours of taking TS wind to near the coast.

Still looking like some beneficial rains for Central Texas?

There will likely be a sharp cutoff in rainfall amounts across central TX. A lot will depend on how far north the squalls extend. We should know more tomorrow.

[Edwards Limestone]

GFS has shifted south again. At this rate, anywhere north of I-10 might not see much unless it's a coastal county.

[wxman57]

Why did the 12Z Euro track this north?
Houston doesn't need the rain south Texas does?

No change in 12Z Euro - still Tampico area. I should point out that this may be a very disorganized system with multiple low centers. Don't focus on center so much.

[MGC]

Last light visible sat loop shows that PTC1 appears to be organizing. Should be a TC by noon tomorrow........MGC

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track:

AL, 01, 2024061800, , BEST, 0, 205N, 930W, 35, 999, DB

[skyline385]

the chonk continues to grow in size

[TomballEd]

The pressure gradient is pretty slack on the S side of PTC1. Light winds on the S side will slow the organization of what is already a disorganized system

[Astromanía]

It's getting cloudy where I live