ATL: ALBERTO - Remnants - Discussion

[ScottNAtlanta]

I think it's go time. This looks a lot better today and now we have convection firing over the center. Almost looks like a CDO is forming just to the east of where the center is

[cycloneye]

Down to 994 mbs.

AL, 01, 2024061912, , BEST, 0, 222N, 945W, 35, 994, LO

[jasons2k]

It is what it is. A big gyre trying to wind-up and running out of space. It's still a disorganized mess with multiple swirls and outflow boundaries rotating around a broad center. Alberto-to-be will meet the criteria on paper but will make landfall in the formative stages.

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/WXMolly/status/1803425058871750992

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Considerably more organized looking cloud deck vs this time yesterday.

[Subtrop]

AL, 01, 2024061912, , BEST, 0, 222N, 945W, 35, 995, TS, 34, NEQ, 360, 0, 0, 360, 1006, 360, 300, 45, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ALBERTO, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 003,

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/A ... 012024.dat

[skyline385]

Finally there we go, was just here to say that if this isn't a TS then I don't know what is

[Hypercane_Kyle]

So it begins,

Tropical Storm Alberto!

1-0-0

[MarioProtVI]

And there we go. The start of what could be a very, very busy and long season..

[Tailgater33]

Well it really looks a lot better this morning, very high cloud tops forming near and over the center with very little shear to my naked eye and has good out flow and in an area know to spin up storms quickly. Right get stronger than than they/models were predicting.

[xironman]

This one could surprise people, note the LLC is still caught in the gyre. I won't be going straight to land.

[kevin]

Recon found 47 kt FL winds (and 35 kt SFMR). I don't know how reliable FL wind conversion is for this intensity, but 47 kt sounds enough for an upgrade to 40 kt and based on its appearance that makes sense. It looks so much better than a few hours ago. With another 12 - 20 hours over water we could see quite a potent TS by landfall.

[cycloneye]

You can see the outflow being established by the fanning to the north and south.

[Woofde]

You can see the outflow being established by the fanning to the north and south.

It's starting to take on that classic shrimp look.

[Sciencerocks]

 https://x.com/philklotzbach/status/1803440500470378698

[cheezyWXguy]

Looks to me like there’s two main areas of competing vorticity on vis - one under the large blob and one under a smaller blob just west of it - or maybe it’s still one large elongated center. I would bet the eastern one wins given convective trends

[xironman]

You can see the outflow being established by the fanning to the north and south.

https://i.imgur.com/W4Xfh3a.gif

Looking at the cirrus, there is clearly a upper level high over it.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/Wxmanms1/status/1803464002980209156

[Tailgater33]

Looks to me like there’s two main areas of competing vorticity on vis - one under the large blob and one under a smaller blob just west of it - or maybe it’s still one large elongated center. I would bet the eastern one wins given convective trends

Yes that would seem likely, you can see the low level clouds between the 2 becoming stationary. Hopefully it moves on inland soon, the upper level ridge should start shoving it soon