ATL: ALBERTO - Remnants - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Another danger are waterspouts and possible tornados inland.

 https://x.com/PettusWX/status/1803464324553294298

[MGC]

Welp, after writing off PTC1 yesterday it seems the cyclone has come off of life support and is looking healthy this morning. If that convective band on the south and east sides of Alberto can continue to wrap around then we could witness some modest intensification. 60 years of watching the tropics and still get it wrong.....MGC

[cycloneye]

Welp, after writing off PTC1 yesterday it seems the cyclone has come off of life support and is looking healthy this morning. If that convective band on the south and east sides of Alberto can continue to wrap around then we could witness some modest intensification. 60 years of watching the tropics and still get it wrong.....MGC

The tropics always are changing in the atmosphere and are an enigma as many factors play a roll on how they do around the globe. This applies to now TS Alberto, as yesterday almost all the tropical followers discounted including myself so you are not alone.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Welp, after writing off PTC1 yesterday it seems the cyclone has come off of life support and is looking healthy this morning. If that convective band on the south and east sides of Alberto can continue to wrap around then we could witness some modest intensification. 60 years of watching the tropics and still get it wrong.....MGC

That's the power of the BoC for you; it'll turn even the most weak and anemic tropical disturbances into full-fledged TCs in no-time.

[Cpv17]

Welp, after writing off PTC1 yesterday it seems the cyclone has come off of life support and is looking healthy this morning. If that convective band on the south and east sides of Alberto can continue to wrap around then we could witness some modest intensification. 60 years of watching the tropics and still get it wrong.....MGC

The tropics always are changing in the atmosphere and are an enigma as many factors play a roll on how they do around the globe. This applies to now TS Alberto, as yesterday almost all the tropical followers discounted including myself so you are not alone.

DMAX played a part, I’m sure. Plus it probably found a pocket of low shear on the south side.

[skyline385]

Welp, after writing off PTC1 yesterday it seems the cyclone has come off of life support and is looking healthy this morning. If that convective band on the south and east sides of Alberto can continue to wrap around then we could witness some modest intensification. 60 years of watching the tropics and still get it wrong.....MGC

The tropics always are changing in the atmosphere and are an enigma as many factors play a roll on how they do around the globe. This applies to now TS Alberto, as yesterday almost all the tropical followers discounted including myself so you are not alone.

DMAX played a part, I’m sure. Plus it probably found a pocket of low shear on the south side.

Sometimes looking at models and correlating with satellite helps in this regard. Models always showed a developing system in the SE lobe after the NW lobe was pushed inland and while we were getting to that, the satellite trends were verifying well with model trends on the development of the gyre. Few pages back in this thread, I said that we will likely get a TS closer to landfall and nothing changed on that for me. It was always coming, just needed time for it to be free of interference from the NW lobe.

[Sciencerocks]

[cheezyWXguy]

Seems pretty apparent the eastern lobe of this circulation has taken over. Low level cloud arcs are becoming more circular and seem to be revolving around that center under the convection.

[Nimbus]

Wrapping up a little more quickly now could we see a hurricane before landfall?

[kevin]

I don't know to what extend this was expected, but shear near Alberto has drastically dropped over the last 24 hours as can be seen below. There was always a small pocket of lower shear near Alberto, but it was always surrounded by a bubble of 30 kt shear. But now there is a region with 5 - 10 kt (or even lower) in its forecasted track.

24 hours ago


Now

[xironman]

Wrapping up a little more quickly now could we see a hurricane before landfall?

LOL, I was thinking the same thing. In the old days it would take a while, but we are not in Kansas anymore.

[loon]

Noting at least the GEPS is showing a northern pull after landfall I wonder if Houston might get a bit of rain before this is over with after all? Of course most of the models still powering off into the pacific..

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track position is below 22N and east of 95W. At 2 PM it was at 22.2N 95.1W.

AL, 01, 2024061918, , BEST, 0, 218N, 947W, 35, 995, TS

[Steve]

East winds in the 20’s gusting to the 30’s in New Orleans. Double red flag over in Pensacola = no swimming. Nola has had a few brief passing showers and hopefully we will get a few more. Lfg.

[ChrisH-UK]

This is the Meso Sector 1 from GOES-16 in Geo Colour, it also has a overlay showing the speed and direction of clouds, makes seeing the motion and the centre much easier and clearer.

Source - https://col.st/1ewrf

[Astromanía]

It begin to rain here in Monterrey

[Sciencerocks]

[cheezyWXguy]

Wrapping up a little more quickly now could we see a hurricane before landfall?

LOL, I was thinking the same thing. In the old days it would take a while, but we are not in Kansas anymore.

I doubt it has much of a shot. It’s improving nicely from this morning, but the main thing working against it is its massive asymmetrical windfield and flat pressure gradient. I think it’s possible it exceeds forecast peak by a little bit though.

[cycloneye]

Quick question for the members. Will recon find Alberto the same at 35kt or a little more stronger? I go with 40kts.

[xironman]

Quick question for the members. Will recon find Alberto the same at 35kt or a little more stronger? I go with 40kts.

The mesos on the east side are really starting to rip. If they get into one of the easily stronger. 40kt SMFRs.