ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

[Sciencerocks]

[LarryWx]

https://i.imgur.com/29Zea4G.gif

To me eyeballs it looks like the newest convection is just N or NNE of the center.

[tropicwatch]

The HH found west winds, maybe they will go with a TD.

[BobHarlem]

The the west wind and the higher winds in the NE quadrant, have to wonder if we'll get advisories at 5pm tonight, at least PTC. It's pretty close to Florida.

[Zonacane]

A tiny morsel of sustained convection over the center and we’ll have Beryl

[Ian2401]

i want to see what kind of wind speeds it pulls out of that convection here once it does another pass. previous pass found only a couple of FL obs that would constitute TS force when reduced to the surface. either way, an overperformance considering not a single model has shown any kind of development for quite some time now. this happens a lot with these ultra-small storms that models (especially global models) can't resolve well. funny enough, beryl in 2018 was very similar in its surprise intensification resulting in part from its very small footprint

[Nimbus]

Still a lot of shear from that massive Upper level low centered over western Cuba.
Landfall doesn't leave it much time to develop.

[Sciencerocks]

[LarryWx]

SSTs near the LLC are ~81-82F but rise to ~84 in the Gulf Stream, which is centered near 80W where it is heading.

[Sciencerocks]

 https://x.com/VortixWx/status/1803882688123744505

[Zonacane]

Still a lot of shear from that massive Upper level low centered over western Cuba.
Landfall doesn't leave it much time to develop.

It isn’t the shear, its the dry air

[Beef Stew]

Model support or not, this system appears to be developing presently. I’m expecting something along the lines of a bump to 70/70 by the NHC at the next update, and wording like we’ve seen with similar systems- i.e. “if developmental trends continue, TC formation is likely, and advisories may be initiated at the next update”.

[cycloneye]

Southwestern Atlantic Ocean (AL92) Updated:
Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicates
that the small area of low pressure located about 150 miles
northeast of the northernmost Bahamas does not have a well-defined
surface circulation. Environmental conditions remain marginally
conducive for further development and this system could become a
tropical depression while the low moves west-northwestward at 10 to
15 mph. The system is expected to approach the northeastern coast
of Florida or the Georgia coast early on Friday. Another Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance mission is planned for Friday morning, if
necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

[Beef Stew]

Model support or not, this system appears to be developing presently. I’m expecting something along the lines of a bump to 70/70 by the NHC at the next update, and wording like we’ve seen with similar systems- i.e. “if developmental trends continue, TC formation is likely, and advisories may be initiated at the next update”.

Well, guess I need to eat crow then

[BobHarlem]

Looks like the NHC is going with the idea that it won't be anything more than a depression at landfall at this point, so no PTC (Because no TS Watch).
I'd imagine there was a lot of talk about it at the office though to put out that outlook. If it were me I'd probably put up the PTC because of the Gulf stream effect, and some watches around Jax to Maybe Savannah, that concave coast may still see some surge.

[TomballEd]

I guess they didn't think a small area of 40 knots well NE of the weak and nebulous LLC warranted tropical storm watches/warnings, and thus no PTC.  I'd think the PTC route now is the safest alternative, of course,, they have to balance that with not being the boy who cried wolf. TV coverage of visitors, high and dry in the vacation homes, with cars in the salt water around Surfside Beach w/Alberto. A TS warning and local NWS statements about a 2 to 4 foot surge didn't motivate them to leave. Some of those cars are probably toast,

How many tourists near the coast of GA and SC won't even get a TS warning?

[skyline385]

Pretty sure the NHC decided against calling it a TD because the center is relocating to the convection NE and not well defined anymore as seen in the passes. They are probably hesitating against a PTC because no model including hurricane models show it developing. That doesn't mean it won't but thats what I imagine is the reason behind it being still an invest.

[NDG]

I have seen less organized TDs than this, but I got a feeling as it tracks over the gulf stream in the morning it will tightened up nicely before coming inland. Too bad I have meetings in the morning, I would drive up to NE FL for some little fun with these weak systems.

[Sciencerocks]

I have seen less organized TDs than this, but I got a feeling as it tracks over the gulf stream in the morning it will tightened up nicely before coming inland. Too bad I have meetings in the morning, I would drive up to NE FL for some little fun with these weak systems.

This is vastly more organized then Alberto was for the first 4 advisories as a pts1 and it isn't even close. This is defined.

[Hammy]

A bit anecdotal but there's some faint west to east movement on the highlighted cloud elements (it took me a long time of positioning the mouse and staring to make sure it wasnt high-cloud relative) so this thing's trying to close off at the surface. Didn't see any hints of westerly flow when the recon was out there earlier.