Possible development in the SW GOMEX this weekend (Is INVEST 93L)

[ElectricStorm]

2. Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form near the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico on Friday. Environmental conditions appear to
be conducive for gradual development thereafter, and this system
could become a tropical depression over the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico this weekend while it moves slowly west-northwestward or
northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

[cycloneye]

Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form over southeastern
Mexico and northern Central America on Friday. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for gradual development after this
system moves over the Bay of Campeche on Saturday, and a tropical
depression could form over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico this
weekend while it moves slowly west-northwestward or northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

[GalvestonDuck]

Yep. Been saying that for years.

SETX checking in.

GOM is definitely looking like it will have a busy June/July.

(Edited to add -- Wow! It's been over a decade since I last posted? Whew! Yes, it's still me. Less active than before, but still here. Good to see some new faces.)

Here is quite the coincidence, (I know this is off-topic) - literally 2 days ago I thought about your username handle and "Galveston, oh Galveston (And yeah, it's a barrier island. Wanna make something of it?)" as your location entry lol. I wasn't even on S2K when I thought of it! I never thought you were going to post on here again, welcome back .

Thanks! Life has taken some weird turns, but I'm still on the Island and still watching the weather. Had a CV19-centered evacuation from Laura during 2020 (dodged a bullet) and then rode out Nicholas in 2021. I've moved to a 3rd floor apartment, so I'm higher up and it's fun to watch the minor storms from my balcony.

Back on topic -- Looks like this latest GOMEX system could hopefully be less of an issue than Alberto. There was some street flooding and surge in the lower lying areas all the way up people. A lot of people didn't believe the forecasts because Alberto was so far south.

[cycloneye]

POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL INVEST MISSION
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 21.0N 94.5W FOR 22/1800Z.

[USTropics]

As others have mentioned before, something the models struggle with is frictional forcing in the BOC. We typically see systems 'overachieve' in this region due to the concavity of the coastline and geographic features. Here is an 8 run trend of the ECMWF (so ~2 days of runs) for TS Alberto, and we can see how each subsequent run showed further organization:

[cycloneye]

2 PM:

Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form over southeastern
Mexico and northern Central America on Friday. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for gradual development after this
system moves over the Bay of Campeche on Saturday, and a tropical
depression could form over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico this
weekend while it moves slowly west-northwestward or northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

[cycloneye]

Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form over southeastern
Mexico and northern Central America on Friday. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for gradual development after this
system moves over the Bay of Campeche on Saturday, and a tropical
depression could form over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico this
weekend while it moves slowly west-northwestward or northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

[Cpv17]

Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form over southeastern
Mexico and northern Central America on Friday. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for gradual development after this
system moves over the Bay of Campeche on Saturday, and a tropical
depression could form over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico this
weekend while it moves slowly west-northwestward or northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

This would be generating a lot more conversation if it wasn’t just going to slam into Mexico once again

[Astromanía]

Better for me lol, more rain yas

[Cpv17]

Better for me lol, more rain yas

Y’all do deserve it though. That was a very bad heatwave and drought during May.

[underthwx]

good morning...Houston nws and mentioned yesterday that whatever form the forecasted low takes...is likely to follow albertos path?

[underthwx]

Better for me lol, more rain yas

Astros fan bro?....im thinking my area has had enuff rain....alberto didn't pan out with excessive rain...at least here in Sweeny it didnt....but its plenty wet tho...

[cycloneye]

Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form over southeastern
Mexico later today. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
gradual development after this system moves over the Bay of Campeche
tonight, and a tropical depression could form over the southwestern
Gulf of Mexico this weekend while it moves slowly west-northwestward
or northwestward. Interests along the Gulf coast of Mexico should
monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

[cycloneye]

Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form over southeastern
Mexico later today. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
gradual development after this system moves over the Bay of Campeche
tonight, and a tropical depression could form over the southwestern
Gulf of Mexico this weekend while it moves slowly west-northwestward
or northwestward. Interests along the Gulf coast of Mexico should
monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

[cycloneye]

ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (BAY OF CAMPECHE)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 71 FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 72
A. 22/1800Z A. 23/0530Z
B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST B. AFXXX 0202A CYCLONE
C. 22/1530Z C. 23/0300Z
D. 21.5N 96.2W D. 21.8N 96.5W
E. 22/1730Z TO 22/2230Z E. 23/0500Z TO 23/0830Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
G. LOW-LEVEL INVEST G. FIX
H. WRA ACTIVATION H. WRA ACTIVATION

FLIGHT THREE - TEAL 73
A. 23/1130Z,1730Z
B. AFXXX 0302A CYCLONE
C. 23/0915Z
D. 22.3N 96.6W
E. 23/1100Z TO 23/1730Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
G. FIX
H. WRA ACTIVATION

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES ON SUSPECT
AREA IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND IS A THREAT.

[cycloneye]

2 PM:

Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form over the Bay of
Campeche by this evening. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for gradual development of this system as it moves slowly
west-northwestward or northwestward, and a tropical depression
could form over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico this weekend.
Interests along the Gulf coast of Mexico should monitor the progress
of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

[galaxy401]

Now down to 50/50.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate a broad area of
low pressure is forming over the Bay of Campeche. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system
as it moves slowly west-northwestward or northwestward, and a
tropical depression could form over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico
this weekend. Interests along the Gulf coast of Mexico should
monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

[Category5Kaiju]

Now down to 50/50.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate a broad area of
low pressure is forming over the Bay of Campeche. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system
as it moves slowly west-northwestward or northwestward, and a
tropical depression could form over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico
this weekend. Interests along the Gulf coast of Mexico should
monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Did NHC release an explanation on why they lowered the long term chances? Doesn't seem like it was mentioned in the main message?

[cycloneye]

Maybe is because of the lackluster runs from the models, that they went down to 50%?

[Stratton23]

Yeah thats probably why, maybe a weak depression at most because its time over water will be very limited