ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

[cycloneye]

AL, 93, 2024062200, , BEST, 0, 195N, 935W, 25, 1005, DB

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal932024.dat

[HurricaneBelle]

Alberto's daughter.

[hipshot]

Alberto's daughter.

I don't think I've seen this development before, I hope Mexico doesn't get hammered again!

[Category5Kaiju]

Bay of Campeche about to do its trick again

[Sciencerocks]

[ElectricStorm]

I think if it develops it will be near the coast before landfall. Could see a 30-40kt system IMO

[Sciencerocks]

This system appears to be somewhat more compact compared to alberto, but has a ull to the west moving into mexico that will induce southerly shear over the system over the next 24+ hours. Conditions won't be as favorable as alberto. Track appears to be to the west-northwest to northwest based on the models.

should have about 48-60 hours before landfall and I'd suggest a decent chance of a minimum tropical storm of 35-40 knts but only after 24-36 hours once it moves into the western portion of the boc. I agree you above as that is in fact the most likely outcome.

[Astromanía]

Due to it's smaller size I don't think I will receive the same amount of rain as Alberto unless it goes more to the north but I don't think that's going to happen

[tropicwatch]

Due to it's smaller size I don't think I will receive the same amount of rain as Alberto unless it goes more to the north but I don't think that's going to happen

Looking like most of the rain will remain in Mexico. Maybe not as much.

[Sciencerocks]

[ChrisH-UK]

93L looks a lot like what Alberto was, a lot of convection with the circulation. Once the sun has got up we should have a better view on 93L but i get the feeling we could have the next storm soon.

GOES-16 CIRA Snow/Cloud - https://col.st/r329j

[cycloneye]

8 AM.

Southwestern Gulf of Mexico (AL93):
A broad low pressure system located over the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico is producing a large area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
gradual development of this system as it moves slowly
west-northwestward or northwestward, and a tropical depression could
form before the system reaches the coast of northeastern Mexico
Sunday night. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall could
cause localized flooding across portions of northeastern Mexico and
Deep South Texas through the end of the weekend. An Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate this
system later today, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

[cycloneye]

AL, 93, 2024062212, , BEST, 0, 210N, 957W, 30, 1005, DB

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

2 PM. Down to 40%.

Southwestern Gulf of Mexico (AL93):
A broad low pressure system located over the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico is producing a large area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear to have become a
little more marginal for development of this system as it moves
slowly northwestward, but a tropical depression could still form
before the system reaches the coast of northeastern Mexico
Sunday night. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is likely
to cause localized flooding across portions of northeastern Mexico
and Deep South Texas through the end of the weekend. An Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is currently investigating the
disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

[REDHurricane]

LLC starting to form?

[REDHurricane]

It's definitely looking more interesting than it did a few hours ago, plus it seems to have found a nice little pocket of low wind shear for the time being. I wouldn't be surprised if the NHC raises the odds to at least 50% or 60% at the next outlook, especially given Alberto's relative overperformance.

[Hurricane2022]

LLC starting to form?

https://media0.giphy.com/media/v1.Y2lkPTc5MGI3NjExY2hzbHc5d3NpMmtxZmt2ZjlmZnZiOWhveTh0ancwM2psMmdycjBsNSZlcD12MV9pbnRlcm5hbF9naWZfYnlfaWQmY3Q9Zw/oncPFO0mQx8VjHwRRu/giphy.gif

Yes!!!

[Hurricane2022]

93L INVEST 240622 1800 21.6N 95.7W ATL 35 1006

[IsabelaWeather]

No chance this gets named. No convection near the center, this thing looks like crap and doesnt have much more time over water.