ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

[Category5Kaiju]

No chance this gets named. No convection near the center, this thing looks like crap and doesnt have much more time over water.

I respectfully disagree, at least with this having "no" chance of being named. Deep layer shear over the system isn't terrible, and with Bay of Campeche systems (including Alberto from just several days ago), these systems have a tendency to ramp up pretty quickly.

[ChrisH-UK]

93L looking a bit bare at the moment but with it been BOC I wouldn't rule out it developing.

[cycloneye]

Special Tropical Weather Outlook to update the discussion of the
low pressure area in the Gulf of Mexico (AL93).

1. Southwestern Gulf of Mexico (AL93):
Updated: Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft show that the broad low pressure area over the southwestern
Gulf of Mexico does not have a well-defined circulation.
Environmental conditions appear to have become a little more
marginal for development of this system as it moves slowly
northwestward, but a tropical depression could still form before the
system reaches the coast of northeastern Mexico Sunday night.
Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is likely to cause
localized flooding across portions of northeastern Mexico and Deep
South Texas through the end of the weekend. Another Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the
system on Sunday, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

[USTropics]

One significant difference between the formation of Alberto and 93L is the influx of precipitable water that was available to Alberto. I highlighted here the TPW that was available to Alberto on the 18th (as it began to deepen) from the monsoon moisture supply:


This has largely been shut off now, with anticyclonic rotation developing over the EPAC:

[IsabelaWeather]

No chance this gets named. No convection near the center, this thing looks like crap and doesnt have much more time over water.

I respectfully disagree, at least with this having "no" chance of being named. Deep layer shear over the system isn't terrible, and with Bay of Campeche systems (including Alberto from just several days ago), these systems have a tendency to ramp up pretty quickly.

You can disagree, but it doesnt change the fact it wont develop at all. I mean, it hasn't looked like it has had any semblance of development all day. Naked swirl, another swirl near Tampico, idk whether its mid or low level, lots of outflow boundaries, thunderstorms robbing moisture out in front. Sometimes you just have to look at it objectively. There is legit no chance it will get named.

[Sciencerocks]

Decent LLC and the last 6 hours before it moves inland should once again force convergence = convection formation near the core. I wouldn't totally rule it out.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Southwestern Gulf of Mexico (AL93):
A broad area of low pressure over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico
is producing poorly organized shower and thunderstorm activity.
Gradual development of this system is possible, and a tropical
depression could form before the system reaches the coast of
northeastern Mexico Sunday night. Regardless of development, heavy
rainfall is likely to cause localized flooding across portions of
northeastern Mexico and Deep South Texas through the end of the
weekend. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the system on Sunday, if necessary.
This system has helped produce gale-force winds near portions of
the coast of eastern Mexico, which are expected to diminish this
evening. More information on the associated gale warnings is
available in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

[Astromanía]

Now getting some nice rain out of this

[Hammy]

Even if this isn't going to develop I do wonder, what's the setup that's led to seeing more of these broad, sprawling monsoonal type systems this year? Two already in a week, and seems like this won't be the end of it--this seems like a far more West Pacific type pattern

[Sciencerocks]

Even if this isn't going to develop I do wonder, what's the setup that's led to seeing more of these broad, sprawling monsoonal type systems this year? Two already in a week, and seems like this won't be the end of it--this seems like a far more West Pacific type pattern

Monsoonal central American gyro displaced to the northeast is partly to explain for it. This is also partly why the eastern pacific is dead as all the energy is going to the northeast and the gyro is shearing the eastern part of the basin so even if waves and energy get into the basin it is dead on arrival..

[skyline385]

No chance this gets named. No convection near the center, this thing looks like crap and doesnt have much more time over water.

I respectfully disagree, at least with this having "no" chance of being named. Deep layer shear over the system isn't terrible, and with Bay of Campeche systems (including Alberto from just several days ago), these systems have a tendency to ramp up pretty quickly.

While I am not going to say there is zero chance this gets named, just deep layer shear isn't everything. You can have less than 10kt deep layer shear but much higher shear in the mid levels. Additionally, the UL has been pretty terrible with a displaced ULAC as well as lack of any decent UL divergence. As such there is near zero convergence and all the divergence is over Yucatan accompanied by some lingering dry air.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/cyclonicwx/status/1804714950629228719

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Southwestern Gulf of Mexico (AL93):
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with
a broad area of low pressure located about 90 miles northeast of
Tampico, Mexico. Some slight additional development of this system
is possible, and a short-lived tropical depression could form before
it reaches the coast of northeastern Mexico tonight. Regardless of
development, heavy rainfall could cause localized flooding across
portions of northeastern Mexico and Deep South Texas during the next
day or so. An Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
currently enroute to investigate the system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.


Forecaster Hagen/Pasch

[Sciencerocks]

[LarryWx]

https://i.imgur.com/IGvIp8X.gif

That loop makes it look like it has already gone onshore. But the TWO refers to it going inland tonight. Anyone know anything about this? Is that an actual LLC going onshore?

[Sciencerocks]

https://i.imgur.com/IGvIp8X.gif

That loop makes it look like it has already gone onshore. But the TWO refers to it going inland tonight. Anyone know anything about this? Is that an actual LLC going onshore?

The well defined LLC is just off shore. The convection is displaced to the west with the center being 30-50 miles off the coast...Will be inland within the next 6-8 hours.

about where it was placed on this map
[img]
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/stormin ... latest.png[/img]

[MississippiWx]

https://i.imgur.com/IGvIp8X.gif

That loop makes it look like it has already gone onshore. But the TWO refers to it going inland tonight. Anyone know anything about this? Is that an actual LLC going onshore?

The well defined LLC is just off shore. The convection is displaced to the west with the center being 30-50 miles off the coast...Will be inland within the next 6-8 hours.

about where it was placed on this map
[url]
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/stormin ... latest.png[/url]

According to the recent NHC special TWO, it doesn’t have a well defined circulation. I’m confused at this because the recon data doesn’t point to an ill-defined circulation.

[cycloneye]

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1150 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special outlook issued to update discussion of the disturbance in
the Gulf of Mexico.

Southwestern Gulf of Mexico (AL93):
Updated: Data from an Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter
aircraft indicate that the area of low pressure centered about 40
miles southeast of La Pesca, Mexico does not have a well-defined
center of circulation. Some slight development of this system is
still possible, and a short-lived tropical depression could form
before it reaches the coast of northeastern Mexico by this evening.
Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is likely to cause
localized flooding across portions of northeastern Mexico and Deep
South Texas through tonight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.
$$
Forecaster Hagen/Pasch

[Sciencerocks]

[Sciencerocks]

That loop makes it look like it has already gone onshore. But the TWO refers to it going inland tonight. Anyone know anything about this? Is that an actual LLC going onshore?

The well defined LLC is just off shore. The convection is displaced to the west with the center being 30-50 miles off the coast...Will be inland within the next 6-8 hours.

about where it was placed on this map
[url]
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/stormin ... latest.png[/url]

According to the recent NHC special TWO, it doesn’t have a well defined circulation. I’m confused at this because the recon data doesn’t point to an ill-defined circulation.

Well, like our friend wxman57 says, "I want to ride my bike and or I want to enjoy my weekend but that damn storm is forcing me into work."