2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[kevin]

Full plot of the 12z EPS, looks like there will be a couple of waves in the MDR which might be worth watching

That one MDR member wants to be Emily 2.0

[skyline385]

Full plot of the 12z EPS, looks like there will be a couple of waves in the MDR which might be worth watching

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/x8dSMkKq/image.png [/url]

That one MDR member wants to be Emily 2.0

If there was any year for that to happen, it would be this year

[skyline385]

Thats a chonker wave on the GFS in long range

[skyline385]

Full plot of the 12z EPS, looks like there will be a couple of waves in the MDR which might be worth watching

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/x8dSMkKq/image.png [/url]

That one MDR member wants to be Emily 2.0

If there was any year for that to happen, it would be this year

Same wave as the one on EPS, MDR is going to see activity soon.

[Pas_Bon]

That one MDR member wants to be Emily 2.0

If there was any year for that to happen, it would be this year

Same wave as the one on EPS, MDR is going to see activity soon.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20240620/8f7283f4083a9ed50e682f0f6314a3a5.jpg

And it’s not even July……yikes

[skyline385]

12z ICON has activity in the MDR within a week

[jlauderdal]

12z ICON has activity in the MDR within a week

Decent signals for something in the MDR, season is off to a quick start.

[Stratton23]

Models/ ensembles starting to hint at maybe a 3rd CAG system getting into the BOC yet again, not a strong signal but enough evidence on globals and ensembles that we could have yet another thing to watch for

[skyline385]

EPS picking up members for that MDR wave

[Stratton23]

The models are starting to see a wave that came off of africa, getting into the NW caribbean- gulf in around 9-10 days, some do show some development, something to watch

[Pas_Bon]

The models are starting to see a wave that came off of africa, getting into the NW caribbean- gulf in around 9-10 days, some do show some development, something to watch

Which models? So far, the only one I've noticed that does this is the CMC

[cycloneye]

The Euro AIF ensembles are out. Let's see how they do during the season.

 https://x.com/ECMWF/status/1804154358679896470

[Stratton23]

Pas_Don ensembles have it, its a wave that just came off of africa, i don’t expect any development while its east of the windward islands, if it stays in tact it could have a shot to develop in the western caribbean like what some ensemble guidance shows

[weeniepatrol]

12z EPS:



00z GEFS:



Excerpt from latest CPC global tropics hazards posted on 18 June:

The ECMWF and GEFS ensembles depict some reorganization of the MJO across the Western Hemisphere and propagating to the Indian Ocean by the end of week-2, although the phase speed may be more indicative of a Convectively Coupled Kelvin Wave (CCKW). This feature is forecast to result in anomalous divergence aloft across the Atlantic in the near-term

Intraseasonal forcing is forecast to be favorable for the next 10-14 days. Keep an eye on the MDR; if we were to get early-season development then it would likely be during broad anomalous divergence like this.

[jlauderdal]

12z EPS:

https://i.imgur.com/7b0VN5q.png

00z GEFS:

https://i.imgur.com/6Zl6KUT.png

Excerpt from latest CPC global tropics hazards posted on 18 June:

The ECMWF and GEFS ensembles depict some reorganization of the MJO across the Western Hemisphere and propagating to the Indian Ocean by the end of week-2, although the phase speed may be more indicative of a Convectively Coupled Kelvin Wave (CCKW). This feature is forecast to result in anomalous divergence aloft across the Atlantic in the near-term

Intraseasonal forcing is forecast to be favorable for the next 10-14 days. Keep an eye on the MDR; if we were to get early-season development then it would likely be during broad anomalous divergence like this.

MDR is getting ready, all hands on deck, we had our warmup "storms".

[MGC]

GFS has gone dry once the 93L moves inland. Might see a quiet couple of weeks coming up......MGC

[Stratton23]

MGC yeah thats not likely going to happen, with forcing focused over Africa, we might have a few early MDR systems in the coming weeks

[Emmett_Brown]

SAL is pretty dominant for the next couple of weeks, so that might offset the favorable forcing.

[Hurricane2022]

Would be cool to see the Bay of Campeche being more active than the entire Pacific Ocean

[Category5Kaiju]

Looks like the GFS operational has yet another BoC system and an MDR runner to wrap up the end of June into early July