2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[skyline385]

EPS continuing to remain decently activity going into early July

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

EPS continuing to remain decently activity going into early July

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/ZRHrSR16/14-km-EPS-Global-Cyclones-Tropical-Atlantic-Ens-Minimum-MSLP.gif [/url]

That big signal over Bermuda

[skyline385]

EPS continuing to remain decently activity going into early July

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/ZRHrSR16/14-km-EPS-Global-Cyclones-Tropical-Atlantic-Ens-Minimum-MSLP.gif [/url]

[Category5Kaiju]

EPS continuing to remain decently activity going into early July

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/ZRHrSR16/14-km-EPS-Global-Cyclones-Tropical-Atlantic-Ens-Minimum-MSLP.gif [/url]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/PqRWG3s1/eps-cyclones-atlantic-360.png [/url]

Wow, that's a lot of pretty robust MDR-born systems

Again, under normal circumstances I probably would brush them off, especially this early in the calendar year, but then again, the conditions we seem to have for this season seem to be setting up to be very favorable, so who knows?

[AnnularCane]

EPS continuing to remain decently activity going into early July

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/ZRHrSR16/14-km-EPS-Global-Cyclones-Tropical-Atlantic-Ens-Minimum-MSLP.gif [/url]

I like the one that seems to just blow up over the Carolinas.

[LarryWx]

0Z UKMET has a TS that forms on Thur 150 miles W of Bermuda moving NE: (2nd run in a row with something similar):

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 32.9N 67.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 27.06.2024 84 32.9N 67.1W 1008 40
0000UTC 28.06.2024 96 35.9N 64.5W 1006 35
1200UTC 28.06.2024 108 38.9N 60.7W 1002 38
0000UTC 29.06.2024 120 44.4N 55.1W 1001 41
1200UTC 29.06.2024 132 50.5N 49.5W 991 42
0000UTC 30.06.2024 144 POST-TROPICAL

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

0Z UKMET has a TS that forms on Thur 150 miles W of Bermuda moving NE: (2nd run in a row with something similar):

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 32.9N 67.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 27.06.2024 84 32.9N 67.1W 1008 40
0000UTC 28.06.2024 96 35.9N 64.5W 1006 35
1200UTC 28.06.2024 108 38.9N 60.7W 1002 38
0000UTC 29.06.2024 120 44.4N 55.1W 1001 41
1200UTC 29.06.2024 132 50.5N 49.5W 991 42
0000UTC 30.06.2024 144 POST-TROPICAL

No signal in the other models though. This would be an unusual time of year for Bermuda to see some action although when we do it does tend to be pinching off fronts rather than recurving MDR/Caribbean systems.

[NDG]

The same ensembles which show possible development out the TWs tracking across the Atlantic into the Caribbean over the next 10 days or so show a protective ridge across the southern US if not through the next 16 days.

[LearnedHat]

The same ensembles which show possible development out the TWs tracking across the Atlantic into the Caribbean over the next 10 days or so show a protective ridge across the southern US if not through the next 16 days.

https://i.imgur.com/gnLQdvL.png

Does this leave the Texas / Mexico border as a possibility or is that shielded as well.

[zzzh]

12z euro.

[NDG]

The same ensembles which show possible development out the TWs tracking across the Atlantic into the Caribbean over the next 10 days or so show a protective ridge across the southern US if not through the next 16 days.

https://i.imgur.com/gnLQdvL.png

Does this leave the Texas / Mexico border as a possibility or is that shielded as well.

It depends, many other factors could come into play, strength of tropical system and at what latitude it would enter the GOM.

[weeniepatrol]

Wakey wakey, weenies!

[jlauderdal]

Wakey wakey, weenies!

With the gfs on deck, the infamous happy hour gfs

[AnnularCane]

Wakey wakey, weenies!


https://i.imgur.com/SnWoaBJ.gif

With the gfs on deck, the infamous happy hour gfs

Isn't happy hour 18z, or did that change?

[jlauderdal]

Wakey wakey, weenies!


https://i.imgur.com/SnWoaBJ.gif

With the gfs on deck, the infamous happy hour gfs

Isn't happy hour 18z, or did that change?

Still the same time 18z.

[skyline385]

Wakey wakey, weenies!


https://i.imgur.com/SnWoaBJ.gif

Just bear in mind that the weathernerds EPS cyclone plot shows almost all members regardless of level of development and can sometimes be misleading. 12z EPS has a 10-20% chance of a TS which is reasonable but nothing insane like the weathernerds plot would suggest. And remember this is EPS 48r1 (released last year) which is much more aggressive than the old 47r3 EPS after its resolution was increased to 8-km (along with other updates). See below for what it famously had in June last year for Bret. All I am saying is keep expectations in check for early-July

Chances of current interest on 12z EPS:



Bret 2023 on 48r1 EPS:

[Blown Away]

12z Euro…

[jlauderdal]

12z Euro…

Well established escape route.

[Blown Away]

https://i.postimg.cc/wB8GJCB6/ec-fast-u ... 92-240.gif

12z Euro…

Well established escape route.

12z EPS

[ElectricStorm]

0z GFS tries to develop two MDR waves, the first one is directly south of Cabo Verde at the start of the run. Here it is at hour 144:


Second wave at hour 198 east of the islands: