Tropical Wave in the Southern Caribbean (Is INVEST 94L)

[cycloneye]

NHC has a lemon for the wave east of Windwards that could have better conditions to deveklop in thye Western Caribbean.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. 1. Western Caribbean/Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A westward-moving tropical wave located a few hundred miles
east-southeast of the Windward Islands is producing disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for slow development once the wave reaches the western
Caribbean late this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.


Forecaster Hagen/Pasch

[jlauderdal]

NHC has a lemon for the wave east of Windwards that could have better conditions to deveklop in thye Western Caribbean.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. 1. Western Caribbean/Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A westward-moving tropical wave located a few hundred miles
east-southeast of the Windward Islands is producing disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for slow development once the wave reaches the western
Caribbean late this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.


Forecaster Hagen/Pasch

Finds a hiding spot from SAL.

[floridasun]

likely a mexico system or southern Texas as other system

[Stratton23]

Again its just far too early to speculate a track, this system is 2000 miles away from the GULF, no point in trying to say where something is going to make landfall, ive seen this plenty of times with storms, IKE is an example of why we should never assume where a system will track when its far from land, yes their will be a heat ridge over the central, but any shift in that ridge and or any weakening of it can change a while lot, its still way early in the ball game on this one

[floridasun]

Again its just far too early to speculate a track, this system is 2000 miles away from the GULF, no point in trying to say where something is going to make landfall, ive seen this plenty of times with storms, IKE is an example of why we should never assume where a system will track when its far from land, yes their will be a heat ridge over the central, but any shift in that ridge and or any weakening of it can change a while lot, its still way early in the ball game on this one

the 16 days forcast show high been place for next 16 days

[Stratton23]

Floridasun any forecast beyond 5-7 days should be taken with an extreme grain of salt, their will be a heat ridge, but again things can change with the position and strength of the ridge, its certainly is possible it ends up just going into mexico, but never just assume that, things can change very easily

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

GFS has many members in the Leeward Islands and even a couple up by Bermuda.

[cycloneye]

GFS has many members in the Leeward Islands and even a couple up by Bermuda.

Those are for another wave that is still inside Africa.

[mpic]

Again its just far too early to speculate a track, this system is 2000 miles away from the GULF, no point in trying to say where something is going to make landfall, ive seen this plenty of times with storms, IKE is an example of why we should never assume where a system will track when its far from land, yes their will be a heat ridge over the central, but any shift in that ridge and or any weakening of it can change a while lot, its still way early in the ball game on this one

This board saved me from riding out Ike in a mobile home. My boss thought I was crazy asking for vacation time to evacuate and he never questioned me again.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Western Caribbean/Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A westward-moving tropical wave located a couple of hundred miles
east-southeast of the Windward Islands is producing disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for slow development once the wave reaches the western
Caribbean late this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.


Forecaster Bucci

[Nimbus]

Troughs that dig south into the gulf are rarer in the summer although there is one hugging the Gulf coast currently.
Mid west heat dome might stick around long enough that this just rolls into Mexico but you can't be sure.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

GFS has many members in the Leeward Islands and even a couple up by Bermuda.

Those are for another wave that is still inside Africa.

Right you are! I was just looking at the ensembles again and came back to the board to correct myself.

[ElectricStorm]

0z GFS doesn't do much with this, although it does have two waves behind it try to develop

[GCANE]

Looks like this will be riding under an anticyclone for most of it's track.
Something to keep an eye on.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Western Caribbean/Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A westward-moving tropical wave located over the southeastern
Caribbean Sea is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for slow development once
the wave reaches the western Caribbean late this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/dmorris9661/status/1805551975200587916

[ChrisH-UK]

Here's the wave with decent convection, it in a low shear pocket at the moment.

Source - https://col.st/WSxtM

[chaser1]

As Gcane mentioned above, its worth keeping an eye on this wave given the favorable upper environment that this wave is currently under (and apt to maintain)

[Javlin]

Seeing very little reflection in the models ATTM looks to close to SA as it tracks W.

[Stratton23]

Javlin still gotta watch it, global models can sometimes whiff on development, especially since this wave came off at a lower latitude, sure the SAL is their, but this wave has a very healthy moisture bubble, that could be enough to fend off the dust