2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

[Hurricane2022]

Its just for fun, because 2024 is not going to be your usual "above-average" hurricane season..

Captain Barbossa's Tropical Cyclone Timeline:

1. June 1st: Everyone is excited about the upcoming season. Many are anticipating upcoming action later in the month, but most know that the real action will most likely start in August.

2. July 1st: One or two TCs manage to form in June. Many complain about how weak and disorganized the cyclones are.

3. July 15th: Lots of SAL is present in the Atlantic basin. However, most people are not surprised by this, as they were expecting it.

4. August 1st: Atlantic is still slow. Dry, stable air is present in the tropics. However, models are beginning to suggest things will be changing within a few weeks.

5. August 15th: Models show nothing in the near-future. Many are becoming skeptical about the season amounting to anything significant.

6. August 23rd: There are multiple invests in the Atlantic and conditions are rapidly beginning to change. The models begin to show cyclogenesis. Many quickly change their minds about a quieter season.

7. August 24th: Some experts continue to doubt signs of the Atlantic awakening. These experts issue outlooks that support original ideas of a quieter (or not) season.

8. August 31st: There is now at least one active TC. There is a potential that at least one TC could become a hurricane. Many people appear shocked by the increased activity.

9. September 30th: Several TCs have already formed and dissipated. A few who suggested that the season would be quiet now state that they always knew the Atlantic would spring to life.

10. November 30th: The last storm probably has dissipated by this point. Many look back at the season and state that they are surprised with the outcome.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

 https://x.com/DCAreaWx/status/1804957493485047846


 https://x.com/DCAreaWx/status/1804957496748196243


 https://x.com/DCAreaWx/status/1804957499923353663

[LarryWx]

I’m assuming this is meaningless as far as forecast value for the meat of the season (i.e., not at all “season cancel”) and we did have a close call with Invest 92L off GA, but I imagine it could imply a little something for the total # of NS this season (perhaps shave off 1 NS) in a season with extremely high numbers of NS being forecasted.

Total # of NS through July 1st (excluding NS before May 1):

2024: ? (1 so far)
2023: 3
2022: 3
2021: 5
2020: 4
2019: 1
2018: 1
2017: 2
2016: 3
2015: 2
2014: 1
2013: 2
2012: 4
2011: 1
2010: 1
2009: 0
2008: 1
2007: 2
2006: 1
2005: 2
2004: 0
2003: 1
2002: 0
2001: 1
2000: 0
1999: 1
1998: 0
1997: 2
1996: 1
1995: 1

AVG 1995-2023: 1.5

Any thoughts?

[tolakram]

We are behind both 2005 and 2013. SEASON IS A DUD.

Seriously though if a system gets names is all about position of the disturbance. We've seen some attempted development by everything so far.

[ScottNAtlanta]

 https://x.com/DCAreaWx/status/1804957493485047846


 https://x.com/DCAreaWx/status/1804957496748196243


 https://x.com/DCAreaWx/status/1804957499923353663

This is looking even better today

 https://x.com/MichaelIgbino10/status/1805174815759777826

[skyline385]

Seems like we are going through a round of strong +NAO which has likely made the MDR slightly unfavorable despite the ridiculous SSTs simply from the enhanced trades and consequently cooled the anomalies a bit. An interesting result of the persistent +NAO also has been colder anomalies developing around the Canary current but I don't expect this to matter much in the end, only going to somewhat affect the NS spam during early season. We already have seen a NS and several invests try to develop pretty convincingly despite unfavorable conditions and I fully expect the season to go crazy as soon as conditions improve even slightly. We are already seeing a preview of what's coming with the EPAC and WPAC pretty much shutdown while the extended model runs show an African Standing Wave going into July which will combine with an already active AEJ as seen by the wave trains we have had for the last month (even right now, there are 5 active tropical waves in the NATL).

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/MichaelRLowry/status/1805227632088219939

[zzzh]

NAO during the summer can only modulate SSTs in the subtropics/extratropics (i.e. canary current). MDR/Caribbean are more influenced by tropical forcings.

[psyclone]

I recall 2005 have some early season short fused tropical systems in the bay of campeche/sw gulf..that region had a very hot hand early on but it was otherwise forgettable as the systems didn't get strong...they ran out of room. To see that region so active early on gives me that 05 vibe. Of course July 2005 was insane...so hopefully our paths diverge soon...they most likely will...for now..

[WiscoWx02]

Seems like we are going through a round of strong +NAO which has likely made the MDR slightly unfavorable despite the ridiculous SSTs simply from the enhanced trades and consequently cooled the anomalies a bit. An interesting result of the persistent +NAO also has been colder anomalies developing around the Canary current but I don't expect this to matter much in the end, only going to somewhat affect the NS spam during early season. We already have seen a NS and several invests try to develop pretty convincingly despite unfavorable conditions and I fully expect the season to go crazy as soon as conditions improve even slightly. We are already seeing a preview of what's coming with the EPAC and WPAC pretty much shutdown while the extended model runs show an African Standing Wave going into July which will combine with an already active AEJ as seen by the wave trains we have had for the last month (even right now, there are 5 active tropical waves in the NATL).

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/kMYgs4ML/combine-images-10.png [/url]

Yep…the anomalies are starting to go the other direction now in parts of the eastern Atlantic. Have been waiting for this to happen for a while, figured it would. Hovmollers show enhanced trades dominating the MDR the next few weeks as well so I would expect additional cooling from here on top of the SAL blocking out radiation from the sun.

[skyline385]

Seems like we are going through a round of strong +NAO which has likely made the MDR slightly unfavorable despite the ridiculous SSTs simply from the enhanced trades and consequently cooled the anomalies a bit. An interesting result of the persistent +NAO also has been colder anomalies developing around the Canary current but I don't expect this to matter much in the end, only going to somewhat affect the NS spam during early season. We already have seen a NS and several invests try to develop pretty convincingly despite unfavorable conditions and I fully expect the season to go crazy as soon as conditions improve even slightly. We are already seeing a preview of what's coming with the EPAC and WPAC pretty much shutdown while the extended model runs show an African Standing Wave going into July which will combine with an already active AEJ as seen by the wave trains we have had for the last month (even right now, there are 5 active tropical waves in the NATL).

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/kMYgs4ML/combine-images-10.png [/url]

Yep…the anomalies are starting to go the other direction now in parts of the eastern Atlantic. Have been waiting for this to happen for a while, figured it would. Hovmollers show enhanced trades dominating the MDR the next few weeks as well so I would expect additional cooling from here on top of the SAL blocking out radiation from the sun.

All models/ensembles forecast another round of stronger +NAO so its going to continue for atleast the next week for now. 2024 literally pulling another 2010 with the +NAO spam.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/NbergWX/status/1805418417060450338

[NotSparta]

Seems like we are going through a round of strong +NAO which has likely made the MDR slightly unfavorable despite the ridiculous SSTs simply from the enhanced trades and consequently cooled the anomalies a bit. An interesting result of the persistent +NAO also has been colder anomalies developing around the Canary current but I don't expect this to matter much in the end, only going to somewhat affect the NS spam during early season. We already have seen a NS and several invests try to develop pretty convincingly despite unfavorable conditions and I fully expect the season to go crazy as soon as conditions improve even slightly. We are already seeing a preview of what's coming with the EPAC and WPAC pretty much shutdown while the extended model runs show an African Standing Wave going into July which will combine with an already active AEJ as seen by the wave trains we have had for the last month (even right now, there are 5 active tropical waves in the NATL).

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/kMYgs4ML/combine-images-10.png [/url]

Yep…the anomalies are starting to go the other direction now in parts of the eastern Atlantic. Have been waiting for this to happen for a while, figured it would. Hovmollers show enhanced trades dominating the MDR the next few weeks as well so I would expect additional cooling from here on top of the SAL blocking out radiation from the sun.

All models/ensembles forecast another round of stronger +NAO so its going to continue for atleast the next week for now. 2024 literally pulling another 2010 with the +NAO spam.

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/cCpMknfc/image.png [/url]

2010? +NAO? You could barely even buy a +NAO back in 2010

[skyline385]

Yep…the anomalies are starting to go the other direction now in parts of the eastern Atlantic. Have been waiting for this to happen for a while, figured it would. Hovmollers show enhanced trades dominating the MDR the next few weeks as well so I would expect additional cooling from here on top of the SAL blocking out radiation from the sun.

All models/ensembles forecast another round of stronger +NAO so its going to continue for atleast the next week for now. 2024 literally pulling another 2010 with the +NAO spam.

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/cCpMknfc/image.png [/url]

2010? +NAO? You could barely even buy a +NAO back in 2010

Didn't 2010 have a couple of +NAO rounds which decreased the anomalies in the deep tropics (which were at record high at that time) & the Canary current while heating up the subtropics as we got into peak season? Or am i thinking of some other year here?

[wxman57]

The entire Northern Hemisphere is quiet as of June 25th. NH ACE is about 21% of normal. Not a single East Pac storm and only one NW Pac typhoon. The Atlantic remains quiet. I'm quite hopeful that all the predictions of a hyperactive season were wrong. However, I remember 2004, when the first storm formed July 31st. Meanwhile, I'll enjoy the quiet.

http://wxman57.com/images/NHACE.png

[LarryWx]

All models/ensembles forecast another round of stronger +NAO so its going to continue for atleast the next week for now. 2024 literally pulling another 2010 with the +NAO spam.

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/cCpMknfc/image.png [/url]

2010? +NAO? You could barely even buy a +NAO back in 2010

Didn't 2010 have a couple of +NAO rounds which decreased the anomalies in the deep tropics (which were at record high at that time) & the Canary current while heating up the subtropics as we got into peak season? Or am i thinking of some other year here?

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/k5MyCrfb/combine-images-11.png [/url]

The entire 2010 hurricane season was dominated by -NAO. Every month averaged negative:
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... scii.table

There were only short periods of mainly modest +NAO in 2010. The only exception was the first week in Oct, which had 3 days of strong +NAO.

-NAO has dominated most summers (12 of 17) since 2007. The exceptions were these:
+NAO: 2013, 2018, 2022; neutral NAO: 2017, 2021

The autumns, however, have been much more balanced.

[skyline385]

2010? +NAO? You could barely even buy a +NAO back in 2010

Didn't 2010 have a couple of +NAO rounds which decreased the anomalies in the deep tropics (which were at record high at that time) & the Canary current while heating up the subtropics as we got into peak season? Or am i thinking of some other year here?

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/k5MyCrfb/combine-images-11.png [/url]

The entire 2010 hurricane season was dominated by -NAO. Every month averaged negative:
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... scii.table

There were only short periods of mainly modest +NAO in 2010. The only exception was the first week in Oct, which had 3 days of strong +NAO.

-NAO has dominated most summers (12 of 17) since 2007. The exceptions were these:
+NAO: 2013, 2018, 2022; neutral NAO: 2017, 2021

The autumns, however, have been much more balanced.

The monthly table can sometimes not tell the full picture so I went digging through the daily NAO index archives and there were a couple of rounds of +NAO in early season of 2010, just not as strong and long lasting as I remembered.

June:

6 20 0.22432704269886017
6 21 0.21843627095222473
6 22 0.097271413

July:

7 7 0.095978551
7 8 0.35304689407348633
7 9 0.5573362112045288
7 10 0.7320038080215454
7 11 0.648413897
7 12 0.077601053
------------------------------------
7 31 0.10459507256746292

August:

8 1 0.36901915073394775
8 2 0.6690773963928223
8 3 0.7881171107292175
8 4 0.8275339603424072
8 5 0.6269909739494324
8 6 0.25269579887390137

[cycloneye]

Video from Mark Sudduth.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wHumx30SfK4

[WiscoWx02]

 https://x.com/republicanwx/status/1806006129471750246



The season canceling is beginning to hit its stride. In the comments this poster does bring up a good point about persistent ULL's traversing the Atlantic around the east coast heat dome imparting shear on the tropics but...it is only late June. I am not entirely sold on the accuracy of the CFS model as a whole since it changes so often and can go polar opposite one day to the next. Yes, I do not think this season is going to be as active as most think for my own personal reasons but I don't think it wise to write the season off until this is still a problem come early September, and even then, we'll still likely have hurricanes (99% chance)

[weeniepatrol]

Here's an indicator alright