Tropical Wave SW of the Cabo Verde Islands (Is Invest 95L)

[cycloneye]

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave centered a couple of hundred miles south of the
Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Some slow development of this system is possible
this weekend and into early next week while it moves generally
westward across the central and western tropical Atlantic at 15 to
20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

[Wampadawg]

Well this could be interesting?

[cheezyWXguy]

Could be our first significant storm of the year… or not. Either way, we’ll be tracking this one for a while

[cycloneye]

18z GEFS ensembles.

[cycloneye]

18z Euro ensembles.

[Woofde]

18z Euro ensembles.

There's a cheeky little 963 mb in that set. With how conservative the Euro usually is, that's quite low.

[Category5Kaiju]

Hmm...interesting. Again, under normal circumstances I'd probably say that some of these models are overestimating the favorability of the W. Atlantic in early July. Then again, given the conditions that seem to be in play for this year and how they are much more favorable than many recent years, I'm hesitant at this point to rule out a remote possibility that we might see something significant out of this.

[skyline385]

18z Euro ensembles.

https://i.imgur.com/ZCBUjkd.jpeg

There's a cheeky little 963 mb in that set. With how conservative the Euro usually is, that's quite low.

EPS is different from deterministic Euro and since the 48r1 upgrade, it is not conservative at all but instead pretty aggressive in developing systems. This has been a bias of the latest EPS since its resolution was decreased to 9-km last year.

[Woofde]

18z Euro ensembles.

https://i.imgur.com/ZCBUjkd.jpeg

There's a cheeky little 963 mb in that set. With how conservative the Euro usually is, that's quite low.

EPS is different from deterministic Euro and since the 48r1 upgrade, it is not conservative at all but instead pretty aggressive in developing systems. This has been a bias of the latest EPS since its resolution was decreased to 9-km last year.

Neat, it seems pretty in line with the other ensembles now. I remember in the past it was much worse at picking up signals compared to its counterparts. I guess I'll have to start paying attention to it now.

[IcyTundra]

00Z GFS much more aggressive with strengthing this system. Down to 984 MB Saturday at 90 hours.

[Stratton23]

Models are trending towards more of a blocking ridge cutting off an escape route out into the atlantic fwiw

[IcyTundra]

The Eastern Caribean is where storms go to die this time of year. I think if we see this system develop it will weaken once it reaches the Eastern Caribbean.

[LarryWx]

Just like was the case on the 12Z run, the 0Z UKMET doesn’t have this become a TC through its run (out to 168).

[LarryWx]

0Z main models excluding Euro:

-GFS is by far its strongest run yet as it has a 975-7 mb H hitting the Windward Islands on July 1st, which then weakens and later dissipates in the Caribbean

-CMC just has a weak low vs 12Z’s TS

-ICON just has a weak low similar to 12Z

-UKMET doesn’t have a TC just like the 12Z

-GEFS is about as active as the 18Z. These last two runs are the strongest runs yet at the Lesser Antilles July 1-2

[ElectricStorm]

2. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave centered a few hundred miles south-southwest of the
Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Some slow development of this system is possible
late this week into early next week while it moves generally
westward across the central and western tropical Atlantic at 15 to
20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

[LarryWx]

0Z Euro is a bit more active than prior run with a defined LLC E of the Lesser Antilles though it is still a weak low (doesn’t look strong enough for TD imo) and then it dissipates as it enters the Caribbean

[Stratton23]

0z EPS coming in even more aggressive, and has most of the activity continuing west- west northwest towards the gulf

[zzzh]

Below is one EPS run (before the EPS upgrade) for pre-Bonnie 2022 and we all know what happened next, it was the biggest bust I've ever seen. I wouldn't really trust those models until a solid TD/TS forms.

[jlauderdal]

Below is one EPS run (before the EPS upgrade) for pre-Bonnie 2022 and we all know what happened next, it was the biggest bust I've ever seen. I wouldn't really trust those models until a solid TD/TS forms.
https://i.imgur.com/HQl83ZA.png

We discuss model runs here, we discuss things before they happen, while they are happening and after they happen. Do you trust models after the system has been declared?

[zzzh]

Below is one EPS run (before the EPS upgrade) for pre-Bonnie 2022 and we all know what happened next, it was the biggest bust I've ever seen. I wouldn't really trust those models until a solid TD/TS forms.
https://i.imgur.com/HQl83ZA.png

We discuss model runs here, we discuss things before they happen, while they are happening and after they happen. Do you trust models after the system has been declared?

Sorry I didn't make my point clear, I was saying EPS in this region in this time of the year is a bit biased toward a stronger mdr system, this was the case in the last 3 years (elsa, bonnie, bret). EPS tends to overamplify waves when they are off the coast of Africa. Models perform a lot better when waves reach TD/TS status