Tropical Wave SW of the Cabo Verde Islands (Is Invest 95L)

[skyline385]

6z GFS still seems to slightly overdevelop it along with a system behind it but kills it as you would expect in the ECAR.

[skyline385]

Meanwhile EPS still being EPS

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Kind of reminds me of Brett from last year. Good to see the GFS is up to its usual over-zealous shenanigans.

[BobHarlem]

GFS keeps it a middle Caribbean Cruiser going all the way to Honduras/Nicaragua, similar to what the overall moisture climate models were showing in the longer range. So I thing the west or no recurve idea for this year is showing already. Canadian matches GFS, just weaker, and Euro matches general track but even weaker than the CMC. Euro ensembles are a little less solid on that idea of no recurve. But odds favor the weaker Caribbean cruiser so far.

[abajan]

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located a few hundred miles southwest of the
Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Some slow development of this system is possible
during the next several days while it moves generally westward
across the central and western tropical Atlantic at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

[zzzh]

[cycloneye]

Good rotation at 10N-29W.

[WeatherBoy2000]

 https://x.com/OSUWXGUY/status/1805949023104225446




Looks like a stronger storm will have a tendency to gain latitude while a weaker one will be suppressed south (typical for most MDR storms). The best conditions also look to be east of the Antilles with more hostile conditions in the Ecar. This whole set up strikes me as similar to Bret last year around this time. This is not to say that things will turn out differently (we may not even get storm at all), but we've seen this scenario play out three years in a row with a lot of model hype that doesn't pan out in the end.

[Deshaunrob17]

Meanwhile EPS still being EPS

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20240626/9071ff4e34db034a642bc5931dc62542.jpg

Yeah... I’ll be cautious with the EPS . We’ve seen how bullish it’s been with MDR systems since 2020 (Isaias, Elsa, Bret Bonnie) . Way too bullish with all these systems

[wxman57]

12Z GFS is 20mb higher with the pressure and farther south as it reaches the Caribbean (than 00Z). Trend is weaker and farther south, eventually a wave moving into Nicaragua/Honduras. Looks reasonable. Caribbean environment appears quite hostile now.

[ScottNAtlanta]

The thing about the GFS that gives me pause is the fact that this isn't like 7 days out. The GFS develops this in 48 hrs. It usually doesn't miss that wildly so close in time.

[BobHarlem]

on the 12z gfs and canadian it looks like Sunday is when everything comes together, although that wave trailing behind it certainly is a wildcard for the modeling.

[LarryWx]

12Z runs for TW SW of CV Islands:

-GFS/CMC TS+ Lesser Antilles ~7/1; so CMC stronger than 0Z and similar to yesterday’s 12Z

-ICON stronger low than 0Z/borderline TD?

-UKMET still no TC through 168

-GEFS still rather active

[cycloneye]

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located a few hundred miles southwest of the
Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Some development is possible during the next several
days, and a tropical depression could form over the tropical
Atlantic by the end of the week or this weekend while the system
moves westward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

[ChrisH-UK]

Source - https://col.st/0aWsa

[LarryWx]

12Z Euro is much stronger as it has a TS on 7/1 in the Lesser Antilles and a hurricane later on in the Caribbean!

[zzzh]

12z EC on board now.

[floridasun]

this may follow same path as 93l high too strong move out Caribbean

[Zonacane]

2005 level craziness on that Euro run

[MarioProtVI]

2005 level craziness on that Euro run