ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[USTropics]

For the next 24-48 hours, the consolidation process is a bit complex. We have multiple vortices embedded within the wave envelope (circled in pink and orange), and convergence is currently favored to the southwest:
https://i.imgur.com/EOYjIkB.png

We can see in the 925mb (low-level) vorticity animation below this branching towards the SW as well, and this will likely cause the orientation of our wave axis to tilt this morning:
https://i.imgur.com/bOvfr4i.gif

The 00z ECMWF model does an excellent job of capturing this evolution, with the most likely outcome being the SW lobe/vortex pivoting towards the NE today (pink) while the NE lobe pivots towards the SW (orange):
https://i.imgur.com/q4s0MSt.png

This will assist in orientating the wave axis more north → south and is one of the precursors we look for in the consolidation/development process:
https://i.ibb.co/pzjYNT0/3b4d75e8-90b2-4b6a-b361-7ce030eb7e9d.gif

Good test for the euro to see how its handling the current setup.

The current GFS run (06z) actually has a very similar evolution, but is much quicker in the consolidation process:


If this occurs quicker (current GFS and yesterdays 12z ECMWF solution), I wouldn't rule out a deepening hurricane on approach to the Leeward islands. If this process is slower (00z EMCWF run), the system could struggle on approach to the Caribbean.

As always, the ensembles are a great tool here. We can see when/where this consolidation process occurs has track implications further west:

[zzzh]

[BobHarlem]

8 am outlook late or tech issues?

[WeatherBoy2000]

 https://x.com/cyclonicwx/status/1806286782356492692

The diurnal maximum treated #95L well. Its northern vortmax continues to be convectively active, and now this area has a closed circulation given cloud motions though it still seems broad. There's also some nice inflow in spots and the beginnings of banding. Well on the way to development. The stronger short term solutions do make sense for now. Worth noting the stratocumulus diving south in 95L's northerly flow though. This stable/dry could easily get entrained into the circulation and set 95L back. We'll see how things go but trends seem good for it so far

95L is well on its way towards development, but the SAL looms as a potential hindrance.

[abajan]

8 AM:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL95):
A tropical wave located several hundred miles west-southwest of the
Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce disorganized shower and
thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions are forecast to be
conducive, and development of this system is anticipated. A
tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form this weekend
several hundred miles east of the Windward Islands while the system
moves westward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

[tolakram]

SAL is only an issue if there's shear. Derek Ort did his thesis on this IIRC.

[cycloneye]

AL, 95, 2024062712, , BEST, 0, 100N, 338W, 25, 1011, DB

[chaser1]

Deep UL Trough currently north of Hawaii maybe the influencer on how this gets steered in the Carib and possibly strengthened in the GoM.

Its fascinating to see and watch teleconnections so far away, potentially play a pivitol role on an Atlantic tropical cyclone development and/or storm track

[Hypercane_Kyle]

95L is organizing, perhaps a little faster than the Euro even anticipated. Starting to get that curved shrimp look that we associate with developing tropical depressions.

There is a remarkable amount of moisture ahead and behind of 95L, but high SAL exists to the north. Shear, however, appears relatively low at ~10 knots.

I believe there is reason to treat 95L like an August-type system, at least in the MDR. Caribbean will be more hostile with shear. Signs today seem to point to faster consolidation. I don't think 95L will struggle with fast forward motion with strong trades like Elsa did in the Caribbean though.

[toad strangler]

Michael Lowry with an interesting tidbit in his latest update. Should 95 L somehow become a hurricane in the next three days.

“It's worth noting that only one hurricane in the historical hurricane database dating back to 1851 has been recorded east of the Caribbean islands in June – the first hurricane of 1933, still the most active hurricane season on record by Accumulated Cyclone Energy or ACE”

[Steve]

This is sure to generate some excitement over the next 10 days. I suppose if it doesn't recurve, which doesn't appear all that likely unless it shears off, this probably would be a western Gulf type system (or obviously Yucatan/Central America if it doesn't pick up latitude). You'd think somewhere between the state of Vera Cruz, Mexico and Matagorda Bay, Texas. It's way too early, but that looks like a decent target zone this far out.

[wxman57]

I have it over eastern Honduras next Thursday afternoon at near hurricane strength. Heading into Central America.

[jlauderdal]

I have it over eastern Honduras next Thursday afternoon at near hurricane strength. Heading into Central America.

Looks like you will be working on the 4th, bummer.

[cycloneye]

Continues to organize.

[Steve]

I have it over eastern Honduras next Thursday afternoon at near hurricane strength. Heading into Central America.

That's consistent with last night's Euro which is the farthest south of the major globals though faster. GFS is farther north and CMC crosses the Yucatan or 5-6 degrees farther north than EC hits Honduras. Small deviations either way would make the difference. Strong upper ridge of high pressure as progged would protect everyone east of Texas if it was to take a farther north course as depicted in the GFS.

[3090]

I have it over eastern Honduras next Thursday afternoon at near hurricane strength. Heading into Central America.

Sounds GREAT to me, as long as it continues in the same general heading it took to get to THAT location!

[wxman57]

I have it over eastern Honduras next Thursday afternoon at near hurricane strength. Heading into Central America.

Looks like you will be working on the 4th, bummer.

If it takes that track then crosses the Bay of Campeche, then I won't be needed to work. Any hint at all of a NW Gulf threat and I'll be needed for conference calls. Main uncertainty is the impact of the westerly winds aloft on the southern side of the northern Caribbean TUTT next week.

[3090]

I have it over eastern Honduras next Thursday afternoon at near hurricane strength. Heading into Central America.

That's consistent with last night's Euro which is the farthest south of the major globals though faster. GFS is farther north and CMC crosses the Yucatan or 5-6 degrees farther north than EC hits Honduras. Small deviations either way would make the difference. Strong upper ridge of high pressure as progged would protect everyone east of Texas if it was to take a farther north course as depicted in the GFS.

A lot depends on the timing of trough that is being forecast coming thru the plains some time mid/late next week.

[Tireman4]

I have it over eastern Honduras next Thursday afternoon at near hurricane strength. Heading into Central America.

Looks like you will be working on the 4th, bummer.

If it takes that track then crosses the Bay of Campeche, then I won't be needed to work. Any hint at all of a NW Gulf threat and I'll be needed for conference calls. Main uncertainty is the impact of the westerly winds aloft on the southern side of the northern Caribbean TUTT next week.

Well sir, just fire up the heater ( you know it will not be hot enough on the 4th for you..LOL) and grill and do the conference calls outside in the backyard of your palatial estate.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Continues to organize.

https://i.imgur.com/advym5D.gif

You'd never guess this was June and at 10N