ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Continues to organize.

https://i.imgur.com/advym5D.gif

You'd never guess this was June and at 10N

Also at 35W. That is the most unusual thing, the more east.

[3090]

Continues to organize.

https://i.imgur.com/advym5D.gif

You'd never guess this was June and at 10N

Right? Very impressive (alarming)!

[3090]

Continues to organize.

https://i.imgur.com/advym5D.gif

You'd never guess this was June and at 10N

Also at 35W. That is the most unusual thing, the more east.

It is so anomalous for this time of year to have so much structure and to be a cabo verde type/like system. Ominous?

[skillz305]

EC Central FL here - on the lookout.

[kevin]

If, as GFS indicates, a TS forms around 40W/10N it would be unprecedented for June. There is not a single June TS in the database that ever formed that far east or south (only 2 unnamed TDs). TS formation that far to the east would require a TS roughly 36 hours from now, which is not out of the question considering its current organization. If we include July there are only 5 cases since 1851 of a TS east of 40W and south of 12N.

Even if it takes a bit longer to organize we're still in uncharted waters. It's only at 45W (which the invest will probably reach in ~54 hours) that we have the first other June tropical storms with Elsa 2021 and the 1933 Trinitad hurricane. Basically, this is a pretty special invest.

[GCANE]

A strong updraft is now indicted by a well-developed anticyclone directly over the center.
In the middle over very-high TPW air.
Saturated air and zero shear.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/philklotzbach/status/1806336822668112213

[Sciencerocks]

[ScottNAtlanta]

https://i.imgur.com/FDWkb5r.gif

Looks like it has a good low level circulation going on. Looks closed. Just needs a bit more convection to fire off.

[GCANE]

As usual, I would anticipate a sharp increase in development once this gets to about 50W.
With a strong low, there will be tons of Amazon moist air to entrain.

[Michele B]

EC Central FL here - on the lookout.

I'm no expert, but I suspect with this particular storm, the west coast of FL (where I am!) should be more on the lookout than the east coast.

[Zonacane]

I have it over eastern Honduras next Thursday afternoon at near hurricane strength. Heading into Central America.

No graveyard death?

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

EC Central FL here - on the lookout.

I'm no expert, but I suspect with this particular storm, the west coast of FL (where I am!) should be more on the lookout than the east coast.

It is WAY premature for anyone to feel safe.

[cycloneye]

Up to 60/80.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL95):
A tropical wave located several hundred miles west-southwest of the
Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce disorganized shower and
thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions are forecast to be
conducive, and development of this system is anticipated. A
tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form this weekend
several hundred miles east of the Windward Islands while the system
moves westward at 15 to 20 mph. Interests in the Lesser Antilles
should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

[Tireman4]

From Matt Lanza..

It’s respectable. This, to me, looks more like what you’d see in the central Atlantic in August, not late June. So this feels rather bizarre. As we noted yesterday, storms in June are not unprecedented this far east, but they’re still fairly rare. So Invest 95L is humming, and it will be a good idea to monitor this. One thing we strongly advise against this time of year is monitoring deterministic models too closely: the operational GFS, the operational ECMWF (Euro), etc. These are one-solution, one-forecast outcomes. They have inherent biases in certain situations. For example, the GFS tends to be overeager with Atlantic wave development in systems like 95L. So it wasn’t exactly a surprise to see it barreling a hurricane into the Gulf or toward Florida on a couple recent runs. The Euro has its own struggles, and it too can be prone to errors in track or intensity. But these models swing around a lot from run to run. For example, the last five runs of the GFS have shown multiple possibilities.

12z Wednesday: Southern Caribbean to Hispaniola
18z Wednesday: Yucatan to Mainland Mexico
00z Thursday: Jamaica to Yucatan to northern Mexico
06z Thursday: Haiti to Cuba to Houston
12z Thursday: South of Hispaniola, between Jamaica and Cuba, to Cancun to the Rio Grande

Intensities have fluctuated all over on each of these runs as well. So, we’re not telling you not to look at deterministic modeling. We don’t want to be condescending! But do not use them as planning tools or even as a barometer of what is most likely. Often, the deterministic modeling ends up on one extreme of the ensemble envelope, meaning it’s arguably the least likely outcome! This is why we use ensemble modeling. It gives us a breadth of outcomes and risks. And we can dig into it to pull some signal from the noise. In this case, the European ensemble actually does a very good job of offering up just that. I don’t like sharing spaghetti plots, because they are often too difficult to understand, but in some cases, they’re extremely useful. I believe this is one of those cases.


The Euro ensemble plot of 51 members shows outcomes ranging from off the East Coast to Central America, with intensities ranging from strong hurricanes to depressions or weaker. But some signal can be pulled from this.
What can we take from this? First, there is a very bimodal distribution of the members. In other words, there is one cluster that favors a westward or slightly north of west track all the way into Central America or Mexico. A second camp exists pulling 95L more to the north, even as far east as near Bermuda! This makes intuitive sense, and it gives us a guidepost to consider when thinking about 95L’s future. In addition to steering currents and such, one factor that will determine 95L’s future will be its own intensity. A storm that strengthens quickly will be more apt to gain latitude faster, meaning a track in the right half of the ensemble envelope. A storm that struggles to organize longer will stay at a relatively far south latitude longer, perhaps even grazing the coast of South America. Here’s a good way to actually use deterministic modeling to your benefit. If we look at the comparison of where 95L will be on Tuesday, you can see the GFS is farther north than the Euro. This should not come as a surprise, as it is much faster to develop and wind up 95L than the Euro.

From a practical point of view, this means that what happens over the next 3 to 5 days with Invest 95L will be fairly important. If it forms quickly, it could come farther north ultimately. If it is sluggish to organize, it will probably take a track in the southern half of the ensemble forecast envelope. This isn’t the only thing that will influence where 95L goes, but at the current time, it’s pretty important. As I noted, the GFS operational has a bias to wind these things up too quickly in this part of the world. So in many ways, this probably argues that the Euro idea (favoring the southern half of the ensemble envelope) is more likely. That being said, this is a very atypical year, with record warm water temperatures and such. With that in mind, it bears watching, especially for the Caribbean islands that will be first in line to receive whatever this is as it organizes. Those of you in the states or Central America should continue watching 95L’s progress in the days ahead.

The next name on the list is Beryl.

[BobHarlem]

Recon tentatively scheduled for Sunday for 95L (probably Beryl by then)

[MGC]

95L starting to spin, lets see if it sucks in any of that SAL. If models are correct should be first cane of season.......MGC

[cycloneye]

AL, 95, 2024062718, , BEST, 0, 97N, 354W, 25, 1009, DB

[Blinhart]

https://i.imgur.com/FDWkb5r.gif

Getting real close to being a TD.

[Sciencerocks]