ATL: BERYL - Models

[Zonacane]

CMC sucks why even look at that model

Because its a model being posted in the model thread

[Stratton23]

lsuhurricane a track still means nothing, just because the GFS and CMC operational runs have similar tracks doesnt really mean much at all, ensembles are still spread apart widely from the SE US coast to the gulf

[Steve]

CMC sucks why even look at that model

Probably a lot of people beat me to a response, but it's not the old, crazy CMC it used to be before a couple of years ago when it was upgraded. It actually does fairly well at sniffing out genesis and doesn't develop as many phantom storms as it used to when it wanted to develop every low pressure over water. I'm not going back over 2023 and 2022, but it telegraphed a couple systems the EC and GFS were ignoring. Doesn't mean I'd trust it in a vacuum, but when I'm running global models, I run the Canadian.

[Tireman4]

CMC sucks why even look at that model

Probably a lot of people beat me to a response, but it's not the old, crazy CMC it used to be before a couple of years ago when it was upgraded. It actually does fairly well at sniffing out genesis and doesn't develop as many phantom storms as it used to when it wanted to develop every low pressure over water. I'm not going back over 2023 and 2022, but it telegraphed a couple systems the EC and GFS were ignoring. Doesn't mean I'd trust it in a vacuum, but when I'm running global models, I run the Canadian.

I agree. We are old timers around here, Steve. The Crazy Old Uncle jokes were just funny ( especially the CMC and the GFS when it would spin up Cat 5 hurricanes almost every model run, at least once. LOL) , back then. Now, not so much. It has been shown to be quite reliable.

[Category5Kaiju]

CMC sucks why even look at that model

Gonna have to disagree with you on this. CMC has recently shown to be generally pretty reliable and not overly bearish or trigger-happy. Feel free to give me examples of why you think the model sucks, I'm open to hearing.

[South Texas Storms]

12z Euro is very similar to the 0z run. TS moving through the southern Lesser Antilles on Monday. Landfall as a hurricane near the Nicaragua/Honduras border next Thursday. Seems reasonable to me...similar to wxman57's track.

[Cpv17]

12z Euro is very similar to the 0z run. TS moving through the southern Lesser Antilles on Monday. Landfall as a hurricane near the Nicaragua/Honduras border next Thursday. Seems reasonable to me...similar to wxman57's track.

It wouldn’t surprise me if it took that track, but I’d bet on it going further N than that. The OP seems to be on the southern side of its ensemble guidance. Given the pattern we’ve been in for the past couple weeks though, I’m not sure how far N this could get. Everything is getting buried down in the BOC and crashing into Mexico. If I were betting right now I’d have it crashing into the Yucatan Peninsula or Belize, and then just crossing over the BOC into MX.

[Europa non è lontana]

The past four GFS runs have all shown unusually intense results for 95L as it passes through the Lesser Antilles. No other model has shown such an intense system at that point, although the 12z JMA and CMC runs today both have marginal hurricanes passing south of Barbados.

[Stratton23]

I definitely wouldnt put money on this just going to just get shoved into mexico, considerable spread on all ensemble guidance, mexico, but also the entire gulf coast needs to be watching, we will know more once this system approaches the western caribbean in about 7-9 days, for now we watch this closely

[Landy]

CMC sucks why even look at that model

Others have commented on this already, but I think it'd be helpful to provide the numbers too. According to the NHC's most recent verification report, the CMC and GFS are pretty similar in performance track-wise for the last 3 years, with it even doing better than the GFS as you approach the five day mark.

[LarryWx]

The 12Z GFS/ICON/CMC/Euro/UKMET/GEFS/GEPS look pretty similar to their respective earlier runs. Im still waiting to see if the ICON and especially UKMET are going to do more with this. The JMA fwiw is significantly stronger through the Caribbean with a strong TS in the W Car. The Euro ens mean looks a bit further SW with just a few either recurving off the SE or hitting FL. Many hit from Nicaragua N to the central US Gulf coast.

[Cpv17]

[lsuhurricane]

EPS may be overcooked, but the takeaway here is that ensembles don't really favor much strengthening until AFTER the LA islands. Certainly, different than the GEFS.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Remarkably tight clustering on these spaghetti plots

[Stratton23]

Meaningless_Numbers up until the yucatan/ gulf, then it spreads out like a big fan lol

[Javlin]

12z Euro is very similar to the 0z run. TS moving through the southern Lesser Antilles on Monday. Landfall as a hurricane near the Nicaragua/Honduras border next Thursday. Seems reasonable to me...similar to wxman57's track.

Yes seems reasonable ATTM their seems to be a slot into CA for the time being give it a few more weeks that will probably change.

[mantis83]

looks to stay safely south of florida according to the latest steering currents/strong high pressure

[Stratton23]

12z Euro through 96 hours, 1003 MB TS approaching leeward island
New 18z Euro ( only goes out 90 hours) about 7-8 MB lower with a 996 MB strong TS approaching the islands, interesting, noticeably stronger than 12z run

[Ubuntwo]

12z Euro through 96 hours, 1003 MB TS approaching leeward island
New 18z Euro ( only goes out 90 hours) about 7-8 MB lower with a 996 MB strong TS approaching the islands, interesting, noticeably stronger than 12z run

Notably, this is the strongest Euro run yet - even stronger than yesterday's absurd 12z run (at least by h90)

[IcyTundra]

00Z is quite a bit further north. Goes across Haiti and Cuba.