ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[3090]

https://i.imgur.com/LBfxqDs.gif

APPEARS to me to be a TD now. I think the NHC will likely upgrade at the 11pm advisory.

[GCANE]

The updraft anticyclone looks stronger
Also, it appears that higher TPW air is being entrained more.
Water vapor imagery looks like SAL is not an issue at this time.

[zzzh]

0% this is a TD

[Zonacane]

:uarrow: 0% this is a TD

This has had a closed circulation for a while now

[Beef Stew]

This is far less of A TD than 92L was... for now. But I agree that it's starting to get there.

[Ian2401]

absolutely not a TD right now. circulation is still very broad and no deep convection over or near it.

give it time.

[ConvergenceZone]

Meteorologist WXMAN mentioned that this will probably be a Central America storm and then I'm assuming a Mexico storm based on that path. Is there anything you see in the atmosphere down the road that can change that and put USA in play? I know it's a long way out. Just curious.

[Stratton23]

ConvergenceZone nothing is set in stone, not even close, alot can change, track can change drastically based on how quickly this ramps up, how strong it gets and any land interaction with the islands, ensembles reflect this uncertainty once it reaches the western caribbean, mexico and the entire US gulf coast needs to watch this, lots of variables in play that could drastically alter a potential path

[SohCahToa]

Mandeville, La here.

Been putting off tuning up the generator and filling the gas cans. Guess I can’t put it off anymore. Prep begins this weekend

[tiger_deF]

While 95L likely isn’t a cyclone yet and has dry air to contend with, I think it is much healthier than the lack of convection implies. The structure is great, banding is evident around most of the system, shear looks to be quite low, and there is a clear lower level and mid level circulation. I wouldn’t be shrouded if we had a tropical storm by 11 AM tomorrow.

[Zonacane]

Impressive tower going up.

[jlauderdal]

Meteorologist WXMAN mentioned that this will probably be a Central America storm and then I'm assuming a Mexico storm based on that path. Is there anything you see in the atmosphere down the road that can change that and put USA in play? I know it's a long way out. Just curious.

Yeah, if it gets stronger than forecast, it will trend to the right.

[Jr0d]

Wow. Haven't been watching the weather/tropics for a few days and this happens.

I certainly think we need to watch this here in the Florida Keys.. climatology says the threat in minimal but I think this year we might go against climatology.

This forum will light up if cone of uncertainty hits S. Florida in a few days.

Regardless, this is something we need to watch for the 4th of July week.

[weeniepatrol]

[Hammy]

:uarrow: 0% this is a TD

This has had a closed circulation for a while now

There's still multiple vortices so broad low at the moment. It's organizing, but it's somewhat monsoonal so it'll likely take another day or two to fully consolidate.

[cycloneye]

Levi draws the players well.

 https://x.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1806452912153104610

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWO:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL95):
A tropical wave located several hundred miles west-southwest of the
Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce showers and thunderstorms.
This activity is beginning to show signs of organization, and
environmental conditions are forecast to remain conducive. Thus,
further development of this system is anticipated, and a tropical
depression or tropical storm is likely to form over the next couple
of days while the system moves westward at 15 to 20 mph towards the
Windward Islands. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor
the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

[chaser1]

Looks fantastic for a June MDR system. 95L looks to be improving its overall organization but for the moment does remain well embedded within the ITCZ. Big bursting north of what I see as a possible center of rotation. I don't question the appearance of some west winds. Maybe at 850 mb, or perhaps 1000mb but I'm thinking it just needs another 24-36 hrs for a more aligned CDO COC to emerge. Once that happens, going from TD to TS might occur in pretty short order.

[Cpv17]

8 PM TWO:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL95):
A tropical wave located several hundred miles west-southwest of the
Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce showers and thunderstorms.
This activity is beginning to show signs of organization, and
environmental conditions are forecast to remain conducive. Thus,
further development of this system is anticipated, and a tropical
depression or tropical storm is likely to form over the next couple
of days while the system moves westward at 15 to 20 mph towards the
Windward Islands. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor
the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Well folks, here we go