ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tropicwatch]

Vorticity is increasing and appears to be stacked from the 925mb level through the 70mb level.
https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=vor5&zoom=&time=

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

70/90, and looks amazing on imaging. Can’t believe we’ll likely have a MDR storm in June.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Really popped off in the last two hours. Looks like a TD.

[Hurricane2022]

[cycloneye]

AL, 95, 2024062800, , BEST, 0, 96N, 366W, 25, 1009, DB

[GCANE]

As usual a big-ass hot tower fires off a sunset.
Very impressive outflow, but anticyclone is displaced to the SE of the LLC, presenting about 10knots of shear.
IR satellite analysis shows minimal TD winds.
Anybody know if a TCFA has been posted?
My NRL page is not current.
I would think this gets upgraded once a clear ASCAT shot comes in.

[3090]

As usual a big-ass hot tower fires off a sunset.
Very impressive outflow, but anticyclone is displaced to the SE of the LLC, presenting about 10knots of shear.
IR satellite analysis shows minimal TD winds.
Anybody know if a TCFA has been posted?
My NRL page is not current.
I would think this gets upgraded once a clear ASCAT shot comes in.

I said earlier this afternoon, at the 11pm outlook.

[GCANE]

As usual a big-ass hot tower fires off a sunset.
Very impressive outflow, but anticyclone is displaced to the SE of the LLC, presenting about 10knots of shear.
IR satellite analysis shows minimal TD winds.
Anybody know if a TCFA has been posted?
My NRL page is not current.
I would think this gets upgraded once a clear ASCAT shot comes in.

I said earlier this afternoon, at the 11pm outlook.

Thanks, was out of touch then.
Could you please supply a link for the NRL page?

[CrazyC83]

That looks like a TC from my naked eye but I agree they will wait for an ASCAT pass to confirm. That said, we would need watches by late tomorrow or early Saturday probably...

[GCANE]

Its spinning on MIMIC-TPW.
However, Amazon basin doesn't look well juiced.
Also, with the shear, if it starts moving north of 10N, it'll hit SAL and could see a reduction in intensity.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/TTWeatherCenter/status/1806487807407317484

[GCANE]

That deep UL Trough forecast to be north of Hawaii when 95L gets in the E Carib, as I mentioned yesterday; is looking more ominous today with a very strong Anti-Cyclonic Rossby Wave Break ahead of it.
Timing of this could be critical for the position and strength of this TC as it enters the W Carib and possibly the GoM.

[Stratton23]

GCANE how would Upper level trough north of hawaii affect 95 L’s track, assuming thats what you meant?

[galaxy401]

Is the center under the convection or is it still on the eastern edge of it?

[cycloneye]

Is the center under the convection or is it still on the eastern edge of it?

Hoperfully, there is an ASCAT very soon to see how things are.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Beginning to close off:

[cycloneye]

Is the center under the convection or is it still on the eastern edge of it?

Hoperfully, there is an ASCAT very soon to see how things are.

Yes, found it and look at the upper side.

[GCANE]

GCANE how would Upper level trough north of hawaii affect 95 L’s track, assuming thats what you meant?

At some point it'll cause 95L to curve north as they start to get closer to each other.
The trough moves from west to east.
95L moves from east to west.

[GCANE]

Is the center under the convection or is it still on the eastern edge of it?

Hoperfully, there is an ASCAT very soon to see how things are.

Yes, found it and look at the upper side.

https://i.imgur.com/GLaOBHF.jpeg

I vote close enough.

[Ubuntwo]

Beginning to close off:
https://i.ibb.co/s2fpRf6/38372509.gif

Looks very good, but based on SW IR there is still some elongation to the northeast just beyond the pass. Overnight convection should round that out.