
ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
There's little doubt it is a depression.
1. Closed LLC
2. sustain convection
3. plenty of model support
1. Closed LLC
2. sustain convection
3. plenty of model support
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

Bombs away
Last edited by Zonacane on Fri Jun 28, 2024 11:27 am, edited 1 time in total.
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- Kazmit
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
Guessing NHC will go 100%/100% for 2pm and then a first advisory at 5pm.
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Igor 2010, Sandy 2012, Fay 2014, Gonzalo 2014, Joaquin 2015, Nicole 2016, Humberto 2019
I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
@GCANE LLC looks like its getting sucked under those rotating towers. Looks well anchored under that ULAC
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- Tireman4
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
i think nhc waiting for wind data from sat before their say it td or ts
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- wxman57
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
Tireman4 wrote:
I wonder what Wxman 57 thinks about this forecast?
I'm in agreement with that forecast.
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- Tireman4
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
wxman57 wrote:Tireman4 wrote:
I wonder what Wxman 57 thinks about this forecast?
I'm in agreement with that forecast.
Well, if it is good enough for you, then it is good enough for me. Shall I have heaters sent to your house this 4th?
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- wxman57
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
Tireman4 wrote:wxman57 wrote:Tireman4 wrote:
I wonder what Wxman 57 thinks about this forecast?
I'm in agreement with that forecast.
Well, if it is good enough for you, then it is good enough for me. Shall I have heaters sent to your house this 4th?
Yes, please. It's 79 degrees in my office and I'm getting cold. Only 89 degrees outside. Brrrr! Check your PMs.
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- Tireman4
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
wxman57 wrote:Tireman4 wrote:wxman57 wrote:
I'm in agreement with that forecast.
Well, if it is good enough for you, then it is good enough for me. Shall I have heaters sent to your house this 4th?
Yes, please. It's 79 degrees in my office and I'm getting cold. Only 89 degrees outside. Brrrr! Check your PMs.
I did. Lol.
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- Hurricane2022
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
Last edited by Hurricane2022 on Fri Jun 28, 2024 12:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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For reliable and detailed information for any meteorological phenomenon, please consult the National Hurricane Center, Joint Typhoon Warning Center , or your local Meteo Center.
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- ConvergenceZone
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
wxman57 wrote:Center is on the east side of the convection due to easterly shear. I noticed that the consensus models (TVCC/TVCN) have trended farther south in the 12Z update. Models indicate it could get close to hurricane strength as it passes Barbados, but all models indicate weakening by the time it passes south of Jamaica next Wednesday. There are also indications of a south of due west track beyond day 5, which would take the center into Honduras or Belize next Friday. I don't see any significant threat to the Gulf.
That's awesome wxman! I love the tropics, but it's too early for worrying about a hurricane in the USA. I'm sure there will be PLENTY of them to worry about later this season. Now I can go back to work without obsessing over the board.......

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
Hurricane2022 wrote:https://imageshack.com/i/poBG6RY7g
I think we can safely assume that's no longer a tropical wave.
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- Hypercane_Kyle
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
I'd personally upgrade this to TD2 at 5pm, but obviously the NHC's call. Splitting hairs at this point, because it's obvious this is going to become a tropical cyclone.


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My posts are my own personal opinion, defer to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and other NOAA products for decision making during hurricane season.
- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
2. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL95):
A low pressure system located about 1400 miles east-southeast of the
Windward Islands is becoming better defined and the associated
showers and thunderstorms are increasing in organization. If these
trends continue, a tropical depression will likely form later today.
This system is expected to move westward at 15 to 20 mph and
approach the Windward Islands by the end of the weekend, and
Hurricane or Tropical Storm Watches could be required for portions
of that region tonight or early Saturday. For more information,
including gale warnings, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent.
A low pressure system located about 1400 miles east-southeast of the
Windward Islands is becoming better defined and the associated
showers and thunderstorms are increasing in organization. If these
trends continue, a tropical depression will likely form later today.
This system is expected to move westward at 15 to 20 mph and
approach the Windward Islands by the end of the weekend, and
Hurricane or Tropical Storm Watches could be required for portions
of that region tonight or early Saturday. For more information,
including gale warnings, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent.
Per the 2pm update.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
Looking good with quite a brisk westward motion; my eye puts a COC at about 9N and 41W
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Andy D
(For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.)
(For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.)
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
I'm one of those home lurkers/worriers - come to Storm2K when its the tropics season. Its always interesting to read all the discussions but there are only a few people I totally trust with forecasts or their opinions. Wxman57 is at the top of the list. Been lurking/supporting since 2007.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
f not mentioned, I think one big reason why 95L is developing is because of average to below average Saharan Dust so far this season across the Atlantic basin which is usually accompanied by very dry mid levels with it. Definitely 95L is taking advantage of much better mid level moisture.




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