ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[psyclone]

Gotta love it when the development area contracts because genesis is imminent. It's go time

[tiger_deF]

Major CB ongoing to the West of 95L, probably the most convection I’ve seen since the wave came off of Africa. At least 3 hot towers that are deep purple on IR.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Just for reference when we inevitably get 02L later today, this was Elsa's first forecast for intensity.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2021/a ... .001.shtml?

Code: Select all

INIT  30/2100Z  9.6N  43.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 12H  01/0600Z 10.2N  46.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
 24H  01/1800Z 11.1N  51.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  02/0600Z 12.4N  56.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  02/1800Z 13.8N  61.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  03/0600Z 15.4N  66.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  03/1800Z 17.0N  70.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  04/1800Z 20.0N  77.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
120H  05/1800Z 22.5N  81.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND

[Beef Stew]

I'm fully expecting TD 2 at 5pm EDT

[BobHarlem]

I wouldn't be shocked they went straight to Beryl either

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

I'm fully expecting TD 2 at 5pm EDT

The only way I could see this being wrong is if they jump to TS.

[Nimbus]

I wouldn't be shocked they went straight to Beryl either
https://i.imgur.com/2fFxWGj.gif

Levi noted "there is evidence of wrapping southeasterly flow near the central cloud mass" and NHC is at 100%.
Will be too late to add storm insurance for Beryl Monday.

Low SAL readings along the storm track is unusual for June and why we need the hurricane forecast for Barbados.

[weeniepatrol]

[ConvergenceZone]

Major CB ongoing to the West of 95L, probably the most convection I’ve seen since the wave came off of Africa. At least 3 hot towers that are deep purple on IR.

This is very scary to see this much activity in late June, but with the insane hurricane year that's forecasted, it's also not surprising.

[Woofde]

It's starting to get that nice fanning cirrus look. That's usually a sign of an establishing outflow. With conditions looking as good as they do, I would not be surprised to see this go off to the races very soon.

[Iceresistance]

It's starting to get that nice fanning cirrus look. That's usually a sign of an establishing outflow. With conditions looking as good as they do, I would not be surprised to see this go off to the races very soon.https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20240628/5d8e38d83cb6f3d73f63f7361dba1b15.jpg

There is also a curved band with the system to the center of the CBs

[cycloneye]

AL, 95, 2024062818, , BEST, 0, 90N, 410W, 30, 1007, DB

[Hurricaneman]

I think the NHC go with TD at 5 with a 3 day to 70mph and 5 day at minimal hurricane

[Category5Kaiju]

It's starting to get that nice fanning cirrus look. That's usually a sign of an establishing outflow. With conditions looking as good as they do, I would not be surprised to see this go off to the races very soon.https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20240628/5d8e38d83cb6f3d73f63f7361dba1b15.jpg

Definitely looks like a classic September Cape Verde major hurricane during its infant stages.

Oh wait....

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/webberweather/status/1806760603954057570

[zzzh]

AL, 02, 2024062818, , BEST, 0, 90N, 410W, 30, 1007, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 150, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, TWO, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 008, TRANSITIONED, alA52024 to al022024,

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

AL, 02, 2024062818, , BEST, 0, 90N, 410W, 30, 1007, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 150, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, TWO, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 008, TRANSITIONED, alA52024 to al022024,

There we go!

[zzzh]

It looks like the center is partially exposed on visible?

[aspen]

 https://x.com/webberweather/status/1806760603954057570

Looks like this’ll be a repeat of Elsa: an exceptionally early MDR hurricane that falls apart after reaching the Caribbean due to typical early season trades.

[USTropics]

It looks like the center is partially exposed on visible?

The MLC and LLC are not completely stacked yet. I like to use the 700-300mb RH product to get a good assessment of where the LLC and MLC are located (I denoted the mid-level circulation with an orange M below):


If you take a snapshot of the sounding, you can see our low-level flow is fairly weak compared to the mid levels, which causes this displacement: