Tropical Wave SW of the Cabo Verde Islands (Is Invest 96L)

[KN2731]

NHC has tagged the wave behind 95L that the GFS likes.

3. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave centered a few hundred miles south-southwest of the
Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Some slow development of this system is possible
early next week while it moves generally westward across the central
and western tropical Atlantic at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

[Cpv17]

[kevin]

https://i.postimg.cc/Bv4NTh8S/IMG-2954.png

Just your average June with 2 MDR disturbances at the same time, nothing weird going on here...

[BobHarlem]

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1806653647817764952

[BobHarlem]

12z gfs has this getting to near hurricane strength at the islands, and strengthening further in the East Caribbean. Then it holds it own in the caribbean until it gets to Haiti and poofs.

[Beef Stew]

It seems that the future of this system is going to be tied to 95L, one way or another. I think a stronger 95L in the short term will be a hinderance to this system, but there may be a window of opportunity for this wave's intensification in the far west MDR if shear in the ECar limits 95L after it passes the Windward Islands, and there isn't a substantial cool wake left behind.

[Beef Stew]

Up to 0/30 per the recent 2pm EDT update.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

[BobHarlem]

12z euro starting to show this one now.

[BobHarlem]

Euro this area it near where 95L is likely to go through here

[zzzh]

Models really have "next wave syndrome" in recent years.

[cycloneye]

18z GFS stronger with this wave.

[cycloneye]

[Hurricane2022]

https://i.imgur.com/JxSRBMn.jpeg

It will be named Chris or Debby?

[cycloneye]

https://i.imgur.com/JxSRBMn.jpeg

It will be named Chris or Debby?

Depends on what 94L does.

[jlauderdal]

Canes passing to your south, hopefully they stay south

[cycloneye]

8 PM:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located several hundred miles south-southwest of the
Cabo Verde Islands is producing an area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear generally conducive
for additional development of this system, and a tropical depression
could form by the middle of next week while it moves generally
westward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

[jlauderdal]

8 PM:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located several hundred miles south-southwest of the
Cabo Verde Islands is producing an area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear generally conducive
for additional development of this system, and a tropical depression
could form by the middle of next week while it moves generally
westward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Thats rather bullish as it should, model support and #2 taking advantage of the favorable conditions. Can't discount the gfs for now.

[BobHarlem]

0z GFS showing this being a hurricane very near where it shows Beryl going in the Windwards.

[Cpv17]

When should we see this get tagged?

[IcyTundra]

When should we see this get tagged?

Probably tomorrow